More Middle -East Tensions: We spoke a short while ago about the oil-critical Strait of Hormuz and  now we see this headline over at newsmaxworld.com on 12/14/09: “Iran Working on Secret Nuclear Trigger”. Here are some of the articles key points:

• “LONDON – Confidential intelligence documents obtained by The Times show that Iran is working on testing a key final component of a nuclear bomb.” The notes, from Iran’s most sensitive military nuclear project, describe a four-year plan to test a neutron iniator, the component of a nuclear bomb that triggers an explosion. Foreign intelligence agencies date them to early 2007, four years after Iran was thought to have suspended its weapons programme.”

• “The technical document describes the use of a neutron source, uranium deuteride, which independent experts confirm has no possible civilian or military use other than in a nuclear weapon. Uranium deuteride is the material used in Pakistan’s bomb, from where Iran obtained its blueprint.”

And this from foxnews.com on 12/16/09: “Iran Test-Fires Its Longest-Range Missile” (from 12/16/09 AP):

• “TEHRAN, Iran — Iran on Wednesday test-fired an upgraded version of its most advanced missile, which is capable of hitting Israel and parts of Europe.”

• “LIVESHOTS: Important Points About Iran’s Missile Test”

• “The two-stage Sajjil-2, and is powered entirely by solid-fuel while the older, medium-range Sahab-3 missile uses a combination of soild and liquid fuel in its most advanced form.”

• “Defense Minister Gen. Ahmad Vahidi  … He said the new version (the Sajjil-2) can be fueled more quickly and flies faster than previous ones making it harder to shoot down … ”

• “Solid-fuel missiles like the Sajjil-2 are more accutate than the liquid fuel missiles of similar range currently possessed by Iran. They are also a concern because they can be fueled in advance and moved or hidden in silos.”

PH Comment: The net-same as our last comment on the Strait of Hormuz situation: If we had to place a bet, it would be placed on war.
Prepare families, prepare.

Conversations With ‘Pop’ Smith: PH Question – ‘Pop’, a lot of prepping/posting folks are making                                suggestions for preparedness items as gifts during this holiday season. Any thoughts here?
‘Pop’: It’s a great time for giving preparedness gifts, what with the sales and all, as they’re sure to stimulate focus and interest on/in  preparedness. That’s especially important in these times. Here are a couple of inexpensive gifts (“stocking stuffers”) that should always prove useful:

1. A good-quality manual can-opener

2. A pair of good-quality toenail clippers

3. An eye glasses repair/maintenance kit with added spare parts (screws, etc.).

Also, I haven’t seen it mentioned much but this a great time to acquire/expand your stores with “seasonal” food items that are especially offered for holiday use at very cheap prices. Here are some of the items that I take advantage of:

1. sugar

2. baking soda

3. baking powder

4. hard candy

5. canned yams

6. cranberry sauce

just to name a few. Keep seasonal foods in mind (they can be eaten any time of year) and watch your expiration dates.
Merry Christmas!

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

Photo credit: KaCey97007

2. Static to Lower Wages/Incomes: Regardless of “overall” economic models that may show increases in incomes, employment, etc., the average American will have less money to deal with the expenses of family; both necessary and elective. A quick look at Social Security payments will provide an example here.

3. A Generally Weaker & Weakening Dollar: This will be due primarily to increasing levels of federal debt and the fact that this debt is being met with borrowed and newly printed money. These responses will push up prices, especially imports, and thereby contribute heavily to #1. Pay particular attention for a continuing erosion of the U.S. dollar (for our debt policy stated above) as the world’s reserve currency. More countries will begin doing business between themselves through the exchange of their respective currencies and/or barter. More countries will ask for payments in currencies other than the U. S. dollar (such as the Euro) and/or call for a “market basket” of currencies or an internationally recognized unit of value. Also watch for countries reducing the U.S. dollar as a portion of their reserves.

4. A Lower Standard of Living for The Average American Family: This will be a result if #’s 1-3 and a
continuing weak economy with weak employment (U6) stretching far into the future. Look to the real employment numbers (and other important statistics) from sources like John Williams’ shadowstats.com NOT the federal government.

5. Increased Civil Unrest Over That Of 2009: It might be due to higher food prices, higher taxes/fees,  jobless benefit cuts (the states are running out unemployment money) or some government policy or another but the increasing level of citizen dissatisfaction with current conditions almost assures an increase in  civil unrest (and a government response) to further significant disruption in American’s day-to-day lives.

6. Increased Terrorist Activity In The U.S. & The World: Terrorism appears to be expanding all around the world. It’s message is resonating and captivating not just among the poor but with the affluent young also. Whether in Yemen or London, more are being influenced to support and/or  join this movement. The result of terrorists recruiting successes will nearly guarantee more terrorist activity and attacks in the U.S. and around the world. The individual that called this “The Long War” was spot on!

7. A “Black Swan” Event: (“the existence & occurence of high-impact, hard to predict and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectation”) Here are three possibilities with any of the three providing major repercussions (especially #1):

• War between Israel and Iran resulting in a closing of the Strait of Hormuz (at least)
• and a dramatic reduction in oil availability for the industrialized world (at least).
• The failure/disintegration of a major nation such as Mexico or Pakistan.
• Bankruptcy of a major nation such as Greece, the Baltic’s, or one from Eastern Europe.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

The Economy – Recession Over?: “Recession declared over” is the title of the 10/27/09,Tom Raum post  at beitbart.com (via lifeaftertheoilcrash.net on 10/28/09). Please note these interesting portions of the article:

• “The government will release figures this week expected to show that the economy has awakened from the deepest slump since the 1930’s and is in the early stages of a recovery. But the following week, the government will issue another set of figures expected to show unemployment continuing to rise toward and possibly above a clearly recessionary 10 percent.”
• “Many companies let inventories run down so much that when they ran out, orders picked up. Home resales ticked up as buyers scrambled to complete their purchases before the tax credit for first-time owners expires, And U.S. exporters have benefited from a relentless decline of the dollar that has made U.S. goods cheaper and more competitive overseas.

But none of this adds up to a sustainable upswing.

• “Absent robust job growth, it is not a true economic recovery,” said White House economic adviser Jared Bernstein.”

Food – Future Costs Up: “Food will never be so cheap again” says the title of Ambrose Evans-  Pritchard’s piece of 10/25/09 at the telegraph.co.uk/10-28-09 (via survivalblog.com on 10/28/09). Here’s some of the “why”:

• “Biofuel refineries in the US have set fresh records for grain use every month since may. Almost a third of the US corn harvest will be diverted into ethanol for motors this year, or 12pc of the global crop.
• The worlds grain stocks have dropped from four to 2.6 months cover since 2000, despite two bumper harvests in North America. China’s inventories are at a 30-year low. Asian rice stocks are near danger level.”
• “The world population is adding “another Britain” every year. This will continue until mid-century. By then we will have an extra 2.4bn mouths to feed.”
• “A report by Standard Chartered, “The End of Cheap Food” (quotation marks/PH), said North Africa and the Middle East have already hit the buffers. The region imports 71pc of its rice and 58pc of its corn, It lacks water to boost output. The population is growing fast. It will have to import, and cross fingers.”

Conversations With ‘Pop’ Smith: PH Question – ‘Pop’, any thoughts on preparations for specific events like catastrophic weather (hurricanes, etc.), terrorist attacks, or maybe oil embargo ?

‘Pop’ Smith: First, let me just say that your best preparation is a strong general level of preparedness. Being able to provide for you and yours, and maybe a few others, the basics in water, food, shelter, medical care and security for a time. It’s a base to build on, or adjust on, to specific circumstances.

Two or three things come mind here in addition: First, if you know ahead of time that a hurricane, flood or world class snow fall/winter is approaching then you have time to do things like add extra water or food or fuel for your vehicles or stoves/heaters or pet food, etc.

Second, if the world situation appears to be breaking bad then you might do all the things just mentioned and maybe add some extra cash to your stash for a longer period of difficulty and maybe get your doctor to write some extra Rx’s for any critically necessary medicines a family member might need. Third, preparedness is a process toward greater independence and sustainability during hard times. You have to keep the process in motion and direction in times where resources are readily available so that when the hard times do arrive, you’ll be as ready as you can be.

Figure you’ll never be perfectly prepared but you can/will be prepared enough to adjust, function and get through/on.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

• “As the global and U.S. economies emerge from the downturn, economists predict that there is going to be some sticker shock at the checkout line. Food prices, they say, are heading higher and when you combine that with an unemployment rate that’s expected to linger near a three-decade high for at least another year, it’s even more unwelcome news.”

• “The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects overall food prices to rise as much as 4 percent in the U.S. by the end of 2010. Yet, some economists think they will climb by as much as 5 percent.”
• “The end result? Consumers should keep an eye on oil prices, which not only impact what they pay at the pump but also what they pay at the checkout counter.”

PH Comment: In the first quarter of this year PrudentHome made five predictions for 2009. Three of them were: 1.Expect higher oil prices by years end., 2. Expect higher food prices before next year. and 3. Average Americans will experience a lower standard of living this year. All of those things have and are coming to pass and we expect the same for 2010. Prepare.

Conversations with ’Pop’ Smith:

PH Question: “ ‘Pop’, one of the most prevalent lines of thought today  is in regards to  folks responding to some sudden/catastrophic event by throwing prep gear into their vehicle and making a run for their retreat. Any thoughts?

‘Pop’ Smith: “First, a place to go that’s out of the mainstream and self-sustaining if things get really bad in the country is  really ideal. That said, getting to that place/retreat if things suddenly, or even gradually, get really bad is highly problematic. If the retreat is close, say within a tank of gas, and you leave early enough then things should work out pretty well. But if your having to wait until the “balloon goes up” before you strike out then you have some really bad potential problems.

First, do a quick review in you mind regarding the travel conditions that existed during nearly any of the last decades major hurricanes remembering that travel then was essentially unopposed by state of federal governments (time here to review two of the last presidential directives/orders signed by President Geo. W. Bush in about his last year in office and note that these give the president nearly absolute power over the entire country in a national emergency that he would unilaterally define and declare. What if he decided to restrict all interstate transportation immediately upon declaration of an emergency? Think not, then refer back to what happened to all U.S. air travel right after 9/11.)

Second, consider this: when you leave your place, for a short or long run after an event, you immediately become a refugee for the time you’re in transit. That’s the bottom line. Leave early.”

Until next time, keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers moving fast.

“So why is unemployment and underemployment so high, and why is it likely to remain high for some time? Because, as noted, people who are worried about their jobs, and who are also trying to get out from under a pile of debt, are not going to do a lot of shopping. And businesses that don’t have customers aren’t going to be doing a lot of new investing. And foreign nations also suffering from high unemployment aren’t going to buy a lot of our goods and services.

And without customers, companies won’t hire.  They’ll cut payrolls instead.

Which brings us to the obvious question: Who’s going to buy the stuff we make of the services we provide, and therefore bring jobs back? There’s only one buyer left: The government.”

Food – Backyard Chickens: “Americans turn to backyard chickens for food, security” by  Laura Zuckerman (9/16/09) posted atYAHOO.NEWS via energybulletin.net on 10/1/09, gives us some insight as to what some Americans are doing to meet today’s hard times and some possible harder times in the future. Here’s some of the “doings“:

• “ (Cindy) Thomas is not a farmer and she was not raised on a farm. But the Salmon (Idaho) woman is one of a growing number of Americans who have turned to chickens in the face of a flagging economy, scares about food supply and a strengthening drive to acquire locally produced food.
• In Idaho and Washington state, poultry hatcheries and farm stores say sales of chicks are soaring, with some reporting a rise of 70 percent compared to last tear.
• “We’ve had a hard time filling orders,” said Annette Whitley of Dunlap Hatchery, a facility in southwest Idaho that supplies chickens for eggs and eating – layers and fryers – across the United States.”
• “ Cities are scrambling to keep pace with the outcropping of interest in backyard chickens. Many rules in residential areas restrict rooster-free flocks to manageable numbers – less than a dozen – and concentrate on minimizing noise and odors.”
• “In the underlying ethos is self-sufficiency as a buffer against an uncertain economy, then layer hens, or pullets, are a practical undertaking requiring little space, time and expense, said Jim Hermes, extension poultry specialist with the animal sciences department at Oregon State University.
• “Chickens are a good fit for suburban living,” he said.
• “I don’t know what the  economy is going to do but I do know where I’m going to get my food,” said Karen Mcllroy, who maintains 65 hens near Tacoma, Wash. “And I know if I lost my job I would still be able to eat.”

PH Reminder: On a similar tack, get your seeds (open pollinated/heirloom) for next years garden as soon as they become available and seriously consider getting extra to have two gardens worth on hand at all times. We have the feeling that seeds may be hard to come by if things keep going in this direction.

Until nest time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

The above headlines paint a grim picture of American unemployment “ But wait!” as they say in the TV commercials, “There’s more!”

The more is structural unemployment.

Structural unemployment by one definition runs along the lines of “Unemployment caused by changes in the structure of occupational opportunities, such as when a steel factory closes …”

We might add: such as when they’re no longer making Pontiac’s or Saturn’s (in the context of reduced U.S. auto manufacturing as a whole) or closing the washing machine factory and shipping the jobs to Mexico. But maybe it’s the poet, as is often the case lately, that really has it nailed: “The steady jobs are leavin’ boys and they ain’t coming back – to your home town.”

We here at PrudentHome, wouldn’t be surprised to see “civil unrest” right here in “ …  you home town.” (or in a home town near you) by Christmas and almost certainly within the next year.

Conversations With ‘Pop’ Smith: continued from last week – We were talking about family preparation being geared to roughly four levels of challenge:

1. General Preparation for standard/short-term events such as bad seasonal weather
2. Medium-term events such as a “Hurricane Katrina” or a deep recession
3. Long-term events such as a hard depression or a long term oil embargo
4. War and/or social breakdown.

Again, none of these events are mutually exclusive.

All of the events discussed above require that you prepare to provide your family with shelter, water, food, medical care at some level, and security at a minimum.

This all sounds like quit a bit of effort, and it is, but if you prepare the basics for level one, you have then established a base upon which to build for the greater challenges level two will demand. This follows through using the new, expanded base for number two to prepare for the increased challenges demanded by level three, etc. etc.

We’ve now slipped into a new understanding of preparation: preparation isn’t a static condition but very much a dynamic process.

Just like owning a house or a boat, you have to maintain them and adjust you maintenance, and perhaps expansion, to changing conditions and your changing needs.

As you’ve probably guessed by now, you’re never going to be 100% prepared for any event; you’re going to have adjust to learning to adjust. It’s kind of like a retired Marine Corps (special ops) buddy of mine says: adapt, improvise, and overcome. Sound advice and sound attitude.

Oh, there’s one other thing along the line of adjusting; you might notice that with each increased level of challenge, comes an increased level of stored goods – both in quantity and quality. The very same thing can be said for your skill levels: e.g., while a very basic level of first-aid might get you by in level one or two, you’ll probably want something more for level three and as much as you can acquire for level four.

This is a real general overview of family preparedness but I hope it’s helped a little.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

The Economy – Food Stamps: From Reuters (reuters.com) on 9/04/09, we noticed this post: “Food stamp list soars past 35 million: USDA”. Two things in the article stood out to us:

“More than 35 million Americans received food stamps in June, up 22 percent from June 2008 and a new record as the country continued to grapple with the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930’s.”

“June was the seventh straight month in which food stamp rolls set a record.”

Unemployment Insurance: Mish Shedlock over at Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis   (globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com) gave us this 9/4/09 post headline: “Critically Underfunded Unemployment Insurance Plans”. Here’s the nut for his discussion/analysis:

“[Eighteen via latest updates] states have simply run out of money to pay benefits and been forced to borrow from Washington a total of more than $8 billion. That number is almost certain to grow as more states reach the brink. If they are not able to pay that amount back before 2011, which most will not be able to do, they face paying hundreds of millions of dollars in interest.”

PH Note: Mish’s site is an excellent source of economic discussion and analysis and is highly recommended as a daily read.

Jobless Benefits: Just some general comments on one of our local newspapers’ recent article concerning an infrequently discussed aspect of unemployment benefits: running out.

With nearly 15 million American’s unemployed, it looks as though almost 1.5 million of those will be running out of jobless benefits by the end of this year. This includes a number of recipients who’ve been receiving benefits for 18 full months.

‘Guess’ our economic recovery better hurry up, huh?

Some Food Storage Reminders: PH got this little bit of food storage information via a PrudentHome  friend and  contributor, Stephen McGehee: “Food Storage Shelf Life” from Emergency Essentials (beprepared.com). Stephen has done a good bit of business with them over time and recommends them highly (Note: You can take Stephen’s “recommends” to the bank!). Here are some of Emergency Essentials’ key points:

• “Minerals and carbohydrates do not change much during storage. But proteins can denature and deteriorate in quality. Fats can acquire off odors and off flavors known as rancidity. Vitamins are susceptible to destruction by heat, light and oxidation. Importantly, even if some components deteriorate, the fat, carbohydrates and proteins will still contribute calories. TO PREVENT STARVATION, THE MOST IMPORTANT COMPONENT IS CALORIES.” (caps/PH)
• “‘Food Storage’ that is intended to be held long-term is generally considered to be low moisture food packed in either #10 cans or metalized bags placed within large buckets.
• “’Shelf life’ can be defined in the following two ways: ‘Best if used by‘ shelf life – Length of time food retains most of its original taste and nutrition and “ ‘Life sustaining‘ shelf life – Length of time food preserves life, without becoming inedible.”
• “ Understanding food constituents. Food is composed of the following:
  • Calories: A unit of measurement of energy derived from fats, carbohydrates and protein.
  • Fats: A wide group of compounds that are generally soluble in organic solvents and largely insoluble in water.
  • Carbohydrates: Simple sugars as well as …” starches and celluloses (PH).
• “…shelf life is extremely dependent on the following storage conditions:
  • “Temperature: ’Excessive temperature is damaging to food storage. … store at room temperature or below …”
  • “Moisture: Excessive moisture can result in product deterioration and spoilage … .”
  • “Oxygen: The oxygen in air can have deteriorative effects on fats, food colors, vitamins, flavors, and other food constituents. It can cause conditions that will enhance the growth of microorganisms.”
  • “Light: The exposure of foods to light can result in the deterioration of specific food constituents, such as fats, proteins, and vitamins, resulting in discoloration, off-flavors, and vitamin loss.”
• The foregoing have been some of Emergency Essentials (beprepared.com) key points in it’s brief discussion of food storage considerations. There’s been enough reminders here (along with Stephens recommend) to gain our intention to get one of their catalogs ASAP.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

Mexico Hurting: “Mexico’s economy taking hits from all directions”, by Arthur Brice, is the title of this CNN.com/world’s post on 8/23/09. It’s an important piece because not only is Mexico our close neighbor, it is one two countries (along with Pakistan) our security experts seem to believe is in the greatest danger of falling apart. Mexico is also one of America’s largest sources of oil and it’s with all this in mind that we present a few of the article’s highlights:

• “The Mexican economy went off a cliff in the second three months of 2009, with the gross domestic product dropping 10.3 percent from the same period last year according to government figures.
• “Analysts say the main cause of Mexico’s nosedive is that the nations economy is tied strongly to that of the United States, which is mired in the deepest economic downturn since the 1930’s.”
• “Other factors dragging the Mexican economy down include a tourism decline caused by H1N1 flu outbreak and fears over continuing violence, declining oil and tax revenues, and fewer Mexicans abroad sending money back home.”

The Economy-Bernanke Says Up: For an observation/comment on the Bernanke view of the economy we turn to James Howard Kunstlers 8/24/09 post on his blogkunstler.com/blog entitled “Financial Crisis Called Off”. Here’s a portion:

“What a relief! Everybody from Ben Bernanke and a Who’s Who of banking poobahs schmoozing it up in the heady vapors of Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to the dull scribes at THE NEW YORK TIMES, toiling in their McEscher hall of mirrors, to poor dim James Suroweicki over at THE NEW YORKER, to – wonder of wonders! – Green Shoots claque at the cable networks, to the assorted quants, grinds, nerds, pimps, factorums, catamites, and cretins in every office from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to the International Monetary Fund – every man-Jack and woman-Jill around the levers of power and opinion weighed in last week with glad tidings that the world’s capital finance system survived what turned put to be a mere protracted bout of heartburn and has been reborn as the Miracle Bull economy. Our worries are over, If you believe their bull—- [deletions/PH] Which I don’t.”

Roubini Says Down: The Nouriel Roubini article in the Financial Times (ft.com) of 8/24/09 was entitled  “The risk of a double-dip recession is rising”. Among other things it gave seven solid reasons Professor Roubini thinks the economy may be headed into a double-dip recession but for us regular folks he gave this:

“Another reason to fear a double-dip recession is that oil, energy and food prices are now rising faster than economic fundamentals warrant and could be driven higher by excessive liquidity chasing assets and by speculative demand. … The global economy could not withstand another contractionary shock if similar speculation drives oil rapidly towards $100 a barrel.”

PrudentHome Says Caution: We are certainly NOT economists here at PrudentHome but we are observers  and listeners.

We observe that the American economy purportedly depends on the American consumer for 70% of it’s energy and that one in nine American’s is currently on food stamps while all are entertaining an unemployment level of about 16.3%-U6.

This in the context of continuing reduction in home values and equity, no pay increases (please include Social Security here for 2010 at least!), rising state and local taxes and fees, and finally; our local Salvation Army is requesting, via radio, donations of used clothing as they’re running out.

Mr. Bernanke, things may be looking up in your economy but in ours, not so much.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

So here we go with some of Charles Hugh Smith’s  views on the “real” economy as expressed in his piece, “10 Pins for the Stock market Bubble” (posted on his site, Of Two Minds (oftwominds.com), this past Monday – 8/10/09):

1.“Structural unemployment is skyrocketing, Job Losses Moderate: But structural unemployment worsened. The number of people who’ve been out of work longer than six months soared by a record 584,000 to 5 million, accounting for more than a third of all unemployment for the first time on record.

“Structural” is a polite way of saying there won’t be any jobs for the long-term unemployed this year, next year, or the year after that.”

2.”The jobless rate declined because the work force shrank. … as people lose extended unemployment benefits, they are classified as “discouraged” and are no longer counted in the ’headline” unemployment number.”

3.“Everyone seems to have forgotten we need to create 250,000 jobs a month just to stay even with population growth. So while “only” 250,000 jobs were lost last month –… –that means we’re still 500,000 jobs short of a return to a rising employment scenario.”

4.“The interest on all the debt the nation is taking on to bail out bankers and ’stimulate” the dead credit-bubble model will place a drag on growth far into the future. At the end of March 2009, Bloomberg reported that, “The U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have spent, lent or committed 412.6 trillion, an amount that approaches the value of everything produced in the country last year.” “

5.“Interest rates are set to double. There’s actually more demand for surplus cash than there is supply of surplus cash. That sets up a supply-demand imbalance which leads to higher costs of borrowing.’

6.“Tax revenues are tanking. Government revenue is at its lowest level since the Depression, and most states are on the verge of bankruptcy.”

7.”Normal accounting and reporting rules have been suspended. … mark-to-market is still a pipe dream; mark-to-fantasy reigns supreme as the easiest way to prop up insolvent banks’ balance sheets.”

8.“Commercial Real Estate is spiraling down the drain.”

9.“Consumers are retrenching generationally, not for a few months.”

10.“Residential housing is not healed; it’s still bleeding profusely. Nearly half of U.S. mortgages seen as underwater by 2011.”

“Lagniappe pin: healthcare “reform” will not lower healthcare costs by any measurable degree. … healthcare … will remain in essence a stupendous tax on the few remaining productive sectors of the U.S. economy.”

Part I and Part II of “Cookin’ the Books” this week shows all of us that there are some strong and well-reasoned arguments supporting the view that our economy is in terrible shape with a questionable prognosis for future health at best. It would seem wise to prepare for what may be some very difficult times ahead.

Until next week; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

“Cookin’ the Books”: “Culinary Accounting; Cookin’ the Books!” is the title of Mike Folkerth’s post  yesterday over at mikefolkerth.com (Mike Folkerth – King of Simple). This post, from a guy with snow shovel’s worth of common sense, just adds to PrudentHome’s view that a great deal of the economic (and other) information coming from the MSM and the ’Fed Gov’ is skewed, spun and on occasion, downright false.  Here are highlights from Mr. Folkerth’s piece, see what you think:

• “Greg Easterbrook said,’Torture numbers and they will confess to anything.’”
• “… unemployment numbers … real unemployment numbers. The announcement that the unemployment rate declined slightly to 9.4 percent in July while only 247,000 additional jobs were lost has been greeted as good news. Really?
• “How is it possible for the unemployment rate to essentially remain unchanged when 247,000 jobs have been lost? The reason is simple — the number of people who stopped looking for work rose dramatically. Six hundred thirty-seven thousand additional people no longer consider themselves looking for work.”
• “If we include the normally counted number of unemployed as well as those who have recently given up looking for work and those who have taken a part-time low paying job because they can’t find full-time work, the implication is that the unemployment rate for July would be at 16.3 percent!”

“Hunky Dory”: From The Daily Reckoning (dailyreckoning.com) on 8/9/09 we get this James Howard Kunstler post entitled “Hunky Dory”. It’s a commentary on the “green shoots”, “we’re bottoming out”, and general Pollyanna  view on the economy given almost daily by the ‘Fed Gov’ and the MSM. Mr. Kunstler’s view on events and conditions speak to a  different and perhaps more realistic perspective. Here are some of his views:

• “A broad consensus has formed in the news media and among government mouthpieces and even some ‘bearish” investors on the street that “the worst is behind us” in this tortured economy. This view is completely crazy.”
• “Too many disastrous things are lined up in the months ahead to insure that we’re entering a new phase of history: The Long Emergency (also the title of  Mr. Kunstler’s excellent non-fiction book/PH).
• Government at every level is worse than broke.
• Our currency, the US dollar, is hemorrhaging legitimacy.
• Inability to service old debt at all levels or incur new debt.
• Bad (toxic) debt lurking off balance sheets everywhere.
• The housing bubble fiasco is far from over.
• Commercial real estate fiasco just getting started.
• Unemployment rising implacably.
• So-called “consumers” unable to consume consumables.
• Crucial energy import supply lines fragile.
• Food supply subject to energy problems and climate abnormalities.
• A world full of societies who would enjoy watching us fail and suffer.
• “When ‘The Long Emergency’ was published in 2005, I said then that the greatest danger this society faced would be its inclination to gear up a campaign to sustain the unsustainable at all costs — rather than face the need to make new arrangements for daily life. That appears to be exactly what has happened … .”

We plan to finish Part II at the end of this week. There’s a lot more to come.

Until next time: keep your eyes on the horizon as the weather’s changing fast.