The Unconvinced: Gerald Celente, the noted prognosticator for business and government and CEO of Trends Research Institute, raises the question “Green Shoots or Greatest Depression?” at LewRockwell.com this week. We thought you might find his take, in light of a market rebound and visions of blue sky’s ahead on the business channels, interesting.  Here are some highlights:

• “The financial fields replete with sprouting ’green shoots” should be viewed with suspicion, if not alarm. They are not a mirage, but they are ephemeral.”
• ” … heavy doses of dollars spread so thickly over the financial and governmental territories, will force “green shoots “ to grow. But the fundamentals of the economy remain unsound. They will not be corrected by forced fertilizing barren acreage”
• ” … it is inconceivable that the “green shoots” are signs of sustained economic recovery.”
• ” … no one, could have predicted the mega-merger of Wall Street and Washington that is now fait accompli.”
• “‘The Greatest Depression’ – That we forecast would begin to set in by the end of the year – May have been postponed, but it has not been averted. When it does set in, it will do so with enhanced intensity and at a pace accelerated by complex financial finagling … .”
• “The “green shoots” will wither and conditions will deteriorate. Those who are prepared for the worst will not have been taken by surprise.”

The Unconvinced: Jim Kunstler, noted author of “The Long Emergency” and “World made By Hand”, has yet to “drink the kool-aid (sp?)” and expresses some of his views in his Monday, 5/11/09, post at jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com entitled “Decoupling from Reality”:

• “… The job of the current president and the people who work with him, is to manage an epic contraction — let’s say to land a very large, loaded defect-ridden airplane that has both run out of fuel and suffered grievous breakdown.”
• “We’re far from done with the crisis of banking and money and the related fiasco in mortgages … . It remains to be seen what may happen in the food production scene, but the current severe shortage of capital and the intense droughts shaping up around the world will resolve into a much clearer picture by mid- summer. The price of oil has resumed marching up …” and “Enough carnage has already occurred on the jobs scene …”
• “It’s not just the stock markets that have decoupled from reality …it’s the entire conscious consensus of everybody holding the levers of power and opinion. To put it as simply as possible, we’re still sleepwalking into the future.”

The above views are both contrarian and sourced from a couple of gentlemen who have proved their analytical abilities over the years. They deserve our attention and consideration in these uncertain times.

We hope to have a guest post for the middle of the week and hope you’ll look for it. Until then, keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

The article, referenced by the headline above, leads with, “In a bleaker assessment than those of most private forecasters, the World bank predicted Sunday that the global economy would shrink in 2009 for the first time since WW ll.” The World Bank continued it’s stark evaluation by noting that “…global trade would contract for the first time since 1982, and that the decline would be the biggest since the 1930’s.“

The World bank’s report also referenced the global economic crisis by noting that it would even more dramatically effect the world’s poorer nations by restricting their growth and their access to credit. The report added that the crisis would almost certainly surpass the abilities of international lending institutions, such as itself and the IMF, to provide the necessary funds to backstop the it’s effects.

Tomorrow–The USA: lifeaftertheoilcrash.net recently (3/08/09) provided access to an interview with Gerald Celente, the head of Trends Research Institute, entitled “I’m Expecting Food Riots to Break Out Across the U.S.”

The interview’s title alone might be cause to skip the interview, putting it down as just another sensational statement in a time given to a lot sensational statements. That might be a mistake.

Trends Research Institute has a very strong record when it comes to predicting economic and social changes. The Wall Street Journal notes that “Those who take their predictions seriously consider the Trends Research Institute.” and the prestigious financial publication “The Economist” notes that the ‘Institute’ has “A network of 25 experts whose range of specialties would rival many university faculties.”

With these things in mind, we present some highlights of the interview beyond the headline:

• We are currently in the midst of a global financial meltdown.
• Washington can’t come up with a solution and keeps throwing good money after bad.
• The game is over and any other view is a delusion.
• The market declines every time someone (including the President) gives a statement/interview.
• We are going into the Greatest Depression the world has ever seen.
• Levels of crime and violence will exceed those we’ve ever seen.
• Baby Boomers are unprepared for this situation: leading household incomes in the U.S. below 1999 levels and they‘re broke..
• Violence in this depression will be our greatest fear.

Mr. Celente’s views are stark and dark. Our view at Prudent Home is that no one can precisely predict the future and the effects of any future are very much determined by the responses of individuals and families. It’s with this in mind that we’re going to be shifting our emphasis a little here to provide a very positive “What-you-can-do and how-to-do-it” day in the middle of the week (and in the middle of all this doom-and-gloom). We’ll begin with our next post.

Until the middle of the week then, keep your eyes on the horizon as the weather’s changing fast.