The Planet’s Future: “The planet’s future: Climate change ‘will cause civilization to collapse’ “, an “Authoritative new study sets out a grim vision of shortages and violence …” is the title and ‘sub’ of the Jonathan Owen piece on 7/12/09 posted by the UK’s The Independent (independent.co.uk) on 7/13/09. Here are some of the highlights:

• “…the authors of the report, produced by the Millinium Project – a think tank formerly part of the World Federation of the United Nations Accociations- set out a number of emerging environmental security issues, “The scope and scale of the future effects of climate change – ranging from changes in weather patterns to the loss of livelihoods and disappearing states – has unprecedented implications for political and social stability.”
• “An effort on the scale of the Apollo mission that sent men to the Moon is needed if  humanity is to have a fighting chance of surviving the ravages of climate change.’
• “This is the stark warning from the biggest single report to look at the future of the planet – obtained by The Independent on Sunday ahead of its official publication next month. Backed by a diverse range of leading organizations such as Unesco, the World Bank, the Us Army, and the Rockefeller Foundation, the 2009 state of the Future report runs to 6,700 pages and draws on contributions from 2,700 experts around the globe.”
• “The impact of the global recession is a key theme, with researchers warning that global clean energy, food availability, poverty, and the growth of democracy around the world are at “risk of getting worse due to recession” …”.
• “The immediate problems are rising food and energy prices, shortages of water and increasing migrations ‘due to political, environmental and economic conditions”, which could plunge half the world onto social instability and violence.”
• “The effects of climate change are worsening – by 2025 there could be three billion people without adequate water as the population rises still further. And massive urbanization, increased encroachment on animal territory, and concentrated livestock production could trigger new pandemics.”

Home Garden Warning: From Reuter’s today we get “Potato famine disease striking home gardens in U.S” by Julie Steenhuysen. Here is some of the key information:

• “Late blight, which caused the Irish Potato Famine of the 1840’s and 1850’s, is killing potato ant tomato plants in home gardens from Maine to Ohio and threatening commercial and organic farms, U.S. plant scientists said on Friday.”
• “… the fungal disease spread by spores carried in the air, has made its way into the garden centers of large retail chains in the Northeastern United states.”
• “Wal-mart, Home Depot, Sears, Kmart, and Lowe’s are some of the stores the plants have been seen in …”

“What’s unique about this year is we have never seen plants affected in garden centers being sold to home gardeners …”

*PrudentHome Note: ALL of the above information should provide additional incentive for the home gardener and food producers to consider PrudentHome’s recommendation to have at least two gardens worth of seeds (open-pollinated, natural &/or organic) on hand always, and we now add; each of your garden seed collections/selections should come from at least two sources, preferably in different areas of the country. That and SAVE YOUR SEED.

A Valuable Source: You’ll find a link at PrudentHome to M.D. Creekmore’s “The Survivalist Blog” (thesurvivalistblog.blogspot.com).

You’ll want to put this site on your list as Mr. Creekmore’s perspective on survival is at once tactical and practical. He supports individual/family independence via economy, simplicity and reliability in preparation (as do we at PrudentHome) from his skills as a gunsmith, martial artist, and practitioner of independent living. He’s worth your read.

Until next time: keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

The Economy–What If?: Here at PrudentHome.com we’ve been caught up for the last couple of weeks in concerns about swine flu, a preparedness-book review and the status of world food production. Bits and pieces of economic news crept in here and there, expected increases in unemployment and bankruptcy filings as well as some possible adjustments in the credit card debacle, but something around the edges seemed to be growing; a distinctly more positive economic outlook from the government.

We were kind of surprised with all the “green shoots” talk from almost every government official and thought that just maybe there was some co-ordination involved: as in a clear plan to “blue sky” the current and future economic situation. We weren’t the only ones.

Michael Panzer over at financialarmageddon.com (a good daily read) observed the same phenomena and raised an interesting question regarding not just the coordinated “blue sky” chatter but also about the economic recovery plan itself: “What If It doesn’t Work?”

Here are some highlights from Mr. Panzers 5/8/09 post:

• Mr. Panzer notes that among “realists/cynics …it’s not hard to figure out the game being played in Washington and on Wall Street.” The game being played is one of buying time: buying time until the economy turns around, businesses adjust and turn around or until the clock runs out on this administration and it turns the problems over to the next.
• “Those pulling … the strings are also trying to make use of programming techniques that have long been advocated and employed by “personal development” gurus and neuro-linguistic programming (NLP) experts — that is, get people feeling better about themselves and believing in the vision of good times ahead, and they will act in such a way as to make it happen.”
• “The U.S. Government has done everything in it’s power to avoid the perception that it has lost control.” “And if the stock and bond markets continue to go straight up and if risk premia fall, then the ’Big Brother” approach taken could be vindicated.”
• “But what if, just what if, the economy HASN’T (caps ours) turned the corner? What if job losses continue apace, residential mortgage defaults continue to rise and corporate bankruptcies spike?”
• What if the problems in sophisticated financial instruments such as CMBS‘s, RMBS’s, and CDS’s don’t get straightened out in a timely manner?
• What if “… the Chinese government gradually reduces its net purchases of US Treasuries, and also shortens the duration of its Treasury portfolio?’ What if “… the US Treasury continues the printing presses, the Chinese would gradually build a compelling argument … as to why the US Dollar should no longer be the global reserve currency and the basis of exchange in oil. Profligate spending coupled with fewer willing buyers will drive up US dollar long rates, debase the currency and set off a very unpleasant inflationary cycle.”
• “The Administration and Congress have clearly taken the path of least resistance. … The path taken looks and feels good today, but potential troubles lurk just below the surface.”
• “Is there a monster in my closet? Well, maybe …”

The concern for prudent homes all across America is our country’s economic well-being. In the largest economic arenas, individual families have little play. But we can do much in our own homes, among our own families and neighbors, to mitigate the effects of this economic crisis and perhaps that will be enough.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weather’s changing fast.

Swine Flu Update: Per May 4, 2009, the CDC says the U.S. has 286 cases and 1 death over a total of 36 states.

• We note that authorities nationally and internationally are concerned about a “second wave” of infections as well as a morphing of current flu strains over the summer to produce a much more virulent flu this winter.
• If the current flu situation stabilizes, it might/would perhaps produce an opportunity to acquire more flu-specific preparations to add to your current family preparedness stores.
• Whatever the course of events here, prudent people should keep informed and act accordingly.

The Economy — U.S. Credit Card Canceled: “Rep. Kirk: China Has Cancelled U.S. Credit Card” says the full headline posted on 5/01/09 at Street talk over at money news.newsmax.com. Here are some of the highlights from the article:

• “China, wary of the troubled U.S. economy, has already “canceled America’s credit card” by cutting down purchases of debt, a U.S. congressman said Thursday.”
• “… Treasury Department data shows that investors in China have sharply curtailed their purchases of bonds in January and February.
• * KEY > “Kirk said he was the first member of Congress to tour the Bureau of Public Debt, which trades bonds, and was alarmed at how much debt was being bought by the U.S. Federal Reserve due to the absence of foreign investors.”
• “There will come a time where the lack of Chinese participation may have a significant impact,” Kirk said.
• ’We should track that, because up until last month they were the number one provider of currency to the United States AND NOW THEY’RE GONE.” (caps ours)

Note: People of serious intelligence and understanding have grave concerns regarding America’s ability to pay it’s obligations, continue to borrow at stratospheric levels, and maintain the value of it’s currency. We as citizens should monitor these concerns.

Next time we plan to discuss food: Their’s and ours. Until then, keep a close eye on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

Swine Flu–Where We Are:Things are moving quickly though  the virus seems to be stabilizing. USA Today article “Alert nears pandemic level” gives us a pretty good ‘thumbnail’ of what’s currently going on

• regarding swine flu and here are some of the key points:
• “The World Health Organization raised its global alert level from phase 5, just one level below 6, or “global pandemic,” because the virus appears to be spreading easily person-to-person and cases are appearing that have no link to Mexico. That’s where the virus first began to hit broadly just a few weeks ago.”
• “A pandemic is a geographically widespread epidemic of a newly evolved disease for which there humans have no natural immunity.”
• “Flu pandemic rating system: Since Sunday, the World Health organization has raised its pandemic [global epidemic] alert twice.

Pandemic alert scale:

1 -New virus, no human cases, low risk

2 – New virus, no human cases, higher risk

3 – Very limited human-to-human spread

4 - Increased human-to-human spread

5 - Significant human-to-human spread in multiple locations

6 - Pandemic: human-to-human spread is efficient and sustained

Preparation: For family preparation in a pandemic we look to Kathy Harrison’s excellent book “Just In Case – How To Be Self-Sufficient When The Unexpected Happens” (our book review on her preparedness text should be posted at the end of this week). Ms. Harrison has a succinct chapter on Pandemic (CH 14) and from it we can glean a core of essential preparations and recommendations. Here is some of what she offers:

• “The Red Cross advises that if a pandemic were to strike the United States, we should be prepared to spend ten days confined to our homes. It also warns that we may be without essential services such as power, water, and trash pickup and that the banks will likely close, hospitals will be overwhelmed, and even mail service could be spotty.
• I am afraid that the estimate of ten days of confinement is pretty optimistic. A more likely scenario would be that going out in the public would be risky for at least a month, and there would certainly be viral outbreaks in previously unaffected populations for weeks beyond that. I also think that recovery from a breakdown in services would take considerable time, probably on the order of six to eight weeks. To be really safe, stockpiling a three-month supply of essential goods is not an unreasonable goal.”
• “…some steps you should take. …stay home. … avoid large public places such as shopping malls and supermarkets. I would opt to keep my children home from school.” Except for essential services, “… it might be safer for your family for you to remain there (home from work) until the crisis is over rather than infecting your loved ones.”
• “Hands should be washed a full three minutes …”.
• “Get vaccines or medications as soon as they become available.”
• Keep your body in peak shape through diet and rest.

Situation Monitoring: Latest swine flu updates are available at CDC swine flu (online).

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

Swine Flu Status: There seems to be a million articles, interviews, and reports about regarding the status of the swine flu outbreak but here’s what appears to be the nut:

• WHO has raised the pandemic level to 5 (out of a possible 6) from 3 to indicate a significantly increased risk of global outbreak of serious disease.
• No one knows the future of the flu’s spread and development.
• Keep a close eye on the flu’s spread and development.
• Preparation for a worst case scenario might involve a continuing preparation for the worst natural disaster in your area combined with specific preparations for a pandemic.

The Economy–How’ve We Done So Far?: An answer from Sharon Astyk posted on her blog, sharonastyk.com (a regular read is recommended), on 4/24 09 gives us some insight and information. Her piece is titled “Rates of Return”. Here is some of that post:

• “The worst news is not that GM is dead … . The worst news is that we finally have the beginnings of a tally of the rate of return on our investment.”
• “Here’s Ilargi over at The Automatic Earth (with a bit of help from Elizabeth Warren …) on what we’ve gotten for our money.“
• “Six months ago, in October 2008, the IMF predicted that American financial institutions would have to write own $1.4 trillion in toxic loans and securities. Three months later, it increased the prediction to $2.2 trillion. We find ourselves another three months later today, and the number has risen to $2.7 trillion, or roughly two thirds of the $4.1 trillion the IMF claims will need to be written down globally. I don’t know about you, but I know a trendline when I see one: the chance that the IMF has this time gotten the number right, as in high enough, are zilch and nada. Of the “American” $2.7 trillion, about one third has been actually processed so far, which means US banks will need to write down another $1.8 trillion. Against that backdrop, we need to turn to Elizabeth Warren, who has estimated that $4 trillion has to date been injected into the US financial system. If we were to simplify the issue somewhat, we might say that it has taken $4 trillion to write down $900 billion, and that’s without counting the remaining $8.8 trillion in loans that are floating out there somewhere in the economy. …”
• “But it’s the larger picture emerging from all this that we should focus on. The $4 trillion the banks received so far under the guise of encouraging them to restart lending, the actual numbers for new loans are down 23%. Yet, here’s a New York Times headline today: “Credit Markets Still Sputtering, Geithner Says” You pump one third of the entire annual US GDP into them, they react by cutting lending 23%, and you call that “sputtering”? …’

“In other words, it’s all been a complete failure.”

PrudentHome Note: Just like the flu, keep a close on the spread and development. Also, continue to prepare for the worst natural disaster in your area and combine that with specific preparations for a long, drawn-out depression.

Until next time, keep your eyes on the horizon as the weather’s changing fast.

SWINE FLU RESOURCES:

• UPDATE: 25 April -  WHO Swine Flu Briefing (Audio File)
• World Health Organization (WHO): Swine Influenza
• WHO – Swine Flu Q&A (.PDF)
• Centers for disease Control and Prevention (CDC) – Swine Flu

Swine Flu In Mexico: Pandemic Ahead?: “New, deadly swine flu hits Mexico” says the headline from the Reuter’s 4/24/09 post at reuters.com. The Noel Randewich and Armando Tovar article points out;

• “A deadly strain of swine flu never seen before has broken out in Mexico, killing at least 16 people and raising fears it is spreading across North America.”
• “The World Health Organization said it was concerned about what it called 800 ‘influenza like’ cases in Mexico, and also about a confirmed outbreak of a new strain of swine flu in the United States.”
• Mexican Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova “… linked the disease in Mexico to a new kind of swine flu that struck seven people in California and Texas.”
• “The virus is an influenza A virus, carrying the designation H1N1. It contains DNA typical to avian, swine and human viruses including elements from European and Asian swine viruses” The CDC said.
• “WHO said about 60 people in Mexico have died from the disease.“

In USA: “Seven people in U.S. hit by strange new swine flu” is the title of Maggie Foxs’ (Health and Science Editor) post at reuters.com on 4/24/09. Here’s some of what she reported:

• “Seven people have been diagnosed with a new kind on swine flu in California and Texas, the U.S. Center for Disease Control and prevention reported on Thursday.
• “All seven people have recovered but the virus itself is a never-before-seen mixture of viruses typical among pigs, birds and humans, the CDC said.”
• “We are likely to find more cases,” the CDC’s Dr. Anne Schuchat told a telephone briefing . “We don’t think this is time for major concern around the country.”
• “CDC officials are unsure whether the cases are related to an unusually late and severe flu season in Mexico, in which 20 people have died.”

Human To Human: “We believe at this point that human-to-human spread is occurring,” Dr. Schuchat said, ‘That’s unusual. We don’t know yet how wide it is spreading … We are also with international partners to understand what is occurring in other parts if the world.”

PrudentHome Note: We’re keeping a very close eye on this and suggest you do the same.