One of our friends’ family members was grocery shopping recently at a nearby “big box”
market. She had just corralled her two small children for the walk from the parking lot to the store when she noticed a bumper sticker on the back of a nearby pick-up truck. The sticker read, “What luck for rulers that men don’t think.” The young mother was intrigued.

All along her walk across the parking lot she thought, “I wonder who said that?” and  – thinking about some of the bumper stickers she’d read in traffic recently – “ I wonder who would have a bumper sticker like that on their truck?”

All throughout her shopping experience her mind kept going back to the words on the sticker and wondering what the truck’s owner might be thinking in posting such a provocative comment.

She finally finished shopping, got back to her car and had just finished unloading her groceries and putting the kids in their car seats when she happened to look up to see a grandmotherly-looking woman in hospital scrubs putting several grocery bags in the bed of “bumper sticker” pick-up.

She couldn’t resist. “I was just noticing your bumper sticker and I wonder if you know who that quote was from?”, she asked. The woman smiled and said she did and began a conversation that included a number of interesting comments. Here are some of them as remembered:

• “You know that I’ve been around the block a few more times than you and with a young family like yours, you ought to begin storing up some extra food. I think in about three months or so we’re going to experience an attack right here in our own country.”
• “Stores like this one only have food for two days or so, even in good times.”
• “I’m now cooking with dried beans and rice from scratch. They’re especially good for you and they’re inexpensive.”
• “ Save and clean your used food jars because they’re great to store things like rice and dried beans.’
• “Start buying a little extra each shopping day and put it away for an emergency.”
• “People don’t know their history. History repeats itself and we’re about in the 1930’s.
• “About the quote; it was from Adolph Hitler. When I tell people that, they often think I’m supportive of him and/or his views but it’s just the opposite. However, the truth is the truth no matter who says it.”
• “We’re on the way to a one-world government now and a number of governments are involved in this effort.”
• “Imagine how you’d feed your family during a martial-law situation.”
• “Listen to what the people are saying.”

During the first telling of this little story, we were told that an especially spiritual member of the group listening speculated that the lady might be an angel. One of those with a more historical perspective noted that when a number of the German-Jewish survivors of the holocaust were asked how they could have missed the signs of its approach they said, “ … things happened so slowly.” And finally, a third speculated that the lady represented an example of the deep and growing dissatisfaction abroad in the country; along with a profound distrust in/of government.

Please feel free to draw your own conclusions.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

• “Legendary investor Jim Rogers remains bullish on commodities and says the world will soon face food shortages.”
• “The inventories are now at the lowest they’ve been in decades, not in years.
• And that trend is just intensifying Rogers tells CNBC.
• “Things are getting worse. Many farmers can’t get loans to buy fertilizer now, even though we have big shortages developing.”
• And what will be the end result of this dynamic?
• “Sometime in the next few years we’re going to have very serious shortages of food everywhere in the world, and prices are going to go through the roof,” Rogers said.

Credit: lollyknit

Seed Shortage: PrudentHome is presenting information from this hometownannapolis.com article from             1/16/10 by Susan Reimer entitled “Seed shortage may come in 2010” because  we’ve been advocating that the prudent, prepared/preparing family have a MINIMUM of two gardens worth of garden seed on hand for their home garden: one to plant and one to save for “situations”. Here’s some of the “Why”:

• “Will there be a shortage of vegetable seeds for gardeners in 2010?
• It is possible, says Barbara Melera, owner of the oldest seed house in the country, D. Landren Seeds, formerly of Baltimore and noe of New Freedom, Pa.”
• “ … she said, “In 2009, we had the worst growing season in 60 years.” Rain and disease destroyed crops and with them, the seeds for next years garden.”
• “We are being told that many, many varieties simply won’t be available.”
• “Word of possible shortages must be leaking out, Melera said, because retailers are telling her that they had their best December in years.”

PrudentHome Comment: In our last post, we advocated that the prudent family expand their food storage program and their garden seed reserve (to two years worth of garden seeds MINIMUM).
We again advocate these expansions but add an ASAP. It looks to us as though things are very uncertain and that that uncertainty is growing. Oh, and keep your awareness level high to give yourselves as much lead time as possible for situation changes in areas such as food and seed availability.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

The Dollars Decline: Today’s post headline comes to us from the Financial Times (ft.com) of 11/29/09  via survivable.com of 12/01/09. The article is by Jeffrey Garten and is entitled “We must get ready for a weak-dollar world”.

Photo Credit: SqueakyMarmot

Here’s a portion of this important piece:

• “The roots of this situation are well known. The American budget deficit of this past fiscal year reached 10 per cent of gross domestic product, the largest since the aftermath of the second world war. Meanwhile, the net external debt of the US nearly tripled last year. To $3,500bn and it is projected to increase by nearly $1,000bn every year for the next decade. All this underestimates the problems of a country where unfunded liabilities for baby boomer entitlements are in the stratosphere, infrastructure deterioration is scandalous and many large states are out of money. To close the gaps. Taxes would have to be raised to sky-high levels and spending brutally slashed. It would take a miracle if America’s political system – one rife with vicious partisanship and riddled with well-financed special interests – could do either, let alone both.
• Washington will therefore have little choice but to take the time-honored course for big-time debtors: print more dollars, devalue the currency and service debt in ever cheaper greenbacks. In other words, the US will have to camouflage a slow-motion default because politically it is the easiest way out.”

U.S. Government Failure: To hand-in-glove the above piece, this observation from yesterday’s Of Two Minds blog (oftwominds.com) post by Charles Hugh Smith entitled “The Grand Failure of Government to Limit Concentration of Power”:

• “This, then, is the grand failure of government: due to the concentration of power accumulated by those with asymmetric stakes in the game, any attempt to limit a concentration of power is thwarted by status quo. All the issues which so worried Madison in “The Federalist Papers” have come to full flower: the power of the State has been legally channeled into Elites which have nothing to fear from any branch of the State because they are the State.”

PH Comment: So here we are. “We The People” are on our own. No one is coming to rescue us and the boats have all been taken or burned. We build from here.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

Our posting and commentary on the foregoing is the product of: a conversation with an older acquaintance with degrees in economics, business (and more than 30 years national and international business experience) as well as some re-reads. Our acquaintance is negative and nervous and so are we.  Here’s why:

• “Societe Generale has advised clients to be ready for a possible “global economic collapse” over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction.”
• “ In a report entitled “Worst-case debt scenario”, the bank’s asset team said state rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred private liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders creating a fresh set of problems.
• Overall debt is still far too high in almost all rich economies as a share of GDP (350pc in the US), whether public or private. It must be reduced by the hard slog of “deleveraging”, for years.”
• “Governments have already shot their fiscal bolts.”
• “The underlying debt burden is greater than it was after the Second World War … Ageing populations will make it harder to erode debt through growth. “High public debt looks entirely unsustainable in the long run. We have almost reached a point of no return for government debt,” it said.”
• “Inflating debt away might be seen by some governments as a lesser of evils.”
• “Private debt is also crippling. Even if the US savings rate stabilizes at 7pc, and all of it is used to pay down debt, it will take nine years for households to reduce debt/income ratios to the safe levels of the 1980’s.”

PH Comment: In the conversation with our acquaintance referenced above, I said that from an average mans observation I would have to ask the question, “How could America possibly pay all of her debts and promises?”. My acquaintance just smiled and said, “We can’t.”

Conversations With ‘Pop’ Smith:

PH Question – “’Pop’, The last time we talked you gave us an idea of what you were working on now to prepare this week and this quarter. Could you give us an idea about how you set these weekly and quarterly projects up?”

‘Pop’: I use a notebook and a pencil or ballpoint pen and set up a week, say 11/10 to 11/17. Then I write down three projects I want to get done during that week.

It’s as important to write down the dates/time frame as it is each of the three projects because it’s the writing down of these things that makes them a personal commitment to yourself to try and get them done and on time. When I get one done, I mark it off. If I don’t get but say two of them done this week, then I circle the unfinished project and make it number one or two next week.

OBTW, I leave a couple of lines clear below each project to comment on how it went, how to do it better next time or why I didn’t complete it. Also, I’ve learned not to beat myself up over not completing a project if there’s a good reason; I just write the reason down and move on.

OBTW again, by keeping a record of your projects along with comments, you eventually get a pretty good idea of what you can get done and you then tend to make your projects more realistic in terms of both your time and talents.

I set my quarterly projects the same way save for a bit more space left for comments.

Until next time, keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

• “Nearly half of all U.S. children and 90 percent of black youngsters will be on food stamps at some point during childhood, and fallout from the current recession could push those numbers even higher.”
• “An editorial in the medical journal (the November issue of Archives of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine/PH) agreed.
• “The current recession is likely to generate for children in the United States the greatest level of material deprivation that we will see in our professional lifetimes,” Stanford pediatrician Dr. Paul Wise wrote.”
• “… other recent research suggesting that more than 40 percent of U.S. children will live in poverty or near-poverty by age 17; and that half will live at some point in a single-parent family. Also, other researchers have estimated that slightly more than half of adults will use food stamps at some point by age 65.”

PH Comment: What the above article and information suggests to us here at PrudentHome is that America is in rough shape economically and socially. A lot of the statistics used to develop just the numbers PrudentHome has presented have been based on several decades worth of research  with a clear implication that things are getting worse not better. This is something that the preparing family needs to keep in mind as it works toward greater independence. This situation looks like a long haul at best and a sustainable preparation program is going to be required.

Conversations With ‘Pop’ Smith:

PH Question – “ ‘Pop’, we’ve been talking about a good general, in- depth family preparation program as being a base for dealing with almost any specific crisis-event coming down the road but do you see any problems on the near horizon that we might want to keep our eyes pealed for?

‘Pop’ Smith: While nobody can predict the future, all of us would want to be keenly aware of the direction our economy is taking. We’re at real unemployment at close to 20% with about 70% of our economy depending on near-full employment. Credit is tight and the people and the country owe more than they can pay back. This in a context of nervous creditors, national and international, wondering if we’re going to outright default on our debt or our country is going to print a lot more money with no backing and default that way. Either way things don’t look good.

Wages look like they’re going to hold steady at best for a while so with everything costing more (not just in the stores but in all your local and state taxes and “fees”), look for a lower standard of living for the average American in the short haul at best.

Also, you’re going to want to keep a sharp watch on the middle east. If Israel and Iran go at it, then all the bets are pretty much off the table. The bad now will seem good then

Don’t forget terrorism and civil unrest. Both of those are nearly sure bets pretty soon.

Bottom line: You’ve probably heard about the “Long Emergency” and the “Long War”, well I’d bet that you’re going to begin hearing about the “Long Recovery” pretty soon now. That’s what I’m preparing for: sustained hard times.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

• “ … the United States Government is on a trajectory to default on their obligations. In it’s current condition, it will not be able to fund its forecasted budget deficits and unfunded social security and medicare promises on top of its current debt obligations. … we don’t know when the market will react to it, but there is no longer any doubt about the extent of their trajectory. There simply isn’t enough taxing power, value creation or outside capital willing to support its egregious spending.”
• “From 2004 to 2009, US obligations increased by an average of almost 50% over this six year period under both calculation methods, while US government revenue increased by only 12%. No company or government can increase its liabilities by more than four times the rate of its revenue and stay solvent for an extended period of time.”

A Response?: We, (PH), wondered if this bit of information from the Financial Times (FT.com) on 11/03/09 could be a response, in part, to the information presented above in “Dead Government Walking”. See for yourself:

• “Gold prices continued to rise on Wednesday extending the all-time highs which followed India’s central bank bought 200 tonnes of the precious metal, swapping dollars for bullion as the country’s finance minister warned the economies of the US and EU had collapsed.”

Food – Stamps: From newsmax.com on 11/4/09 we get this headline, “A Record 36 Million in U.S. on Food Stamps”. Here’s the nut:

• “The number of Americans receiving food stamp assistance soared above 36 million for the first time in August, the eighth month in a row that enrollment set a record, the U.S. Department of agriculture said on Wednesday.
• USDA said 36,492 million people were receiving food stamps, also known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. … At the current rate, an estimated one in eight Americans receive benefits.”

PH Comment: The above information are only a couple of snapshots of conditions in the US and the world at the current time. These snapshots along with the comments/observations from economic and social analysts like Prof. Nouriel Roubini, Martin Weiss, and Gerald Celente, would seem to demand the prudent family prepare for a darker future.

At PrudentHome we still advocate strong general preparation for very hard times in the future along with heavy investment in faith, family, friends and neighbors.

Until next week; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

The Economy – Recession Over?: “Recession declared over” is the title of the 10/27/09,Tom Raum post  at beitbart.com (via lifeaftertheoilcrash.net on 10/28/09). Please note these interesting portions of the article:

• “The government will release figures this week expected to show that the economy has awakened from the deepest slump since the 1930’s and is in the early stages of a recovery. But the following week, the government will issue another set of figures expected to show unemployment continuing to rise toward and possibly above a clearly recessionary 10 percent.”
• “Many companies let inventories run down so much that when they ran out, orders picked up. Home resales ticked up as buyers scrambled to complete their purchases before the tax credit for first-time owners expires, And U.S. exporters have benefited from a relentless decline of the dollar that has made U.S. goods cheaper and more competitive overseas.

But none of this adds up to a sustainable upswing.

• “Absent robust job growth, it is not a true economic recovery,” said White House economic adviser Jared Bernstein.”

Food – Future Costs Up: “Food will never be so cheap again” says the title of Ambrose Evans-  Pritchard’s piece of 10/25/09 at the telegraph.co.uk/10-28-09 (via survivalblog.com on 10/28/09). Here’s some of the “why”:

• “Biofuel refineries in the US have set fresh records for grain use every month since may. Almost a third of the US corn harvest will be diverted into ethanol for motors this year, or 12pc of the global crop.
• The worlds grain stocks have dropped from four to 2.6 months cover since 2000, despite two bumper harvests in North America. China’s inventories are at a 30-year low. Asian rice stocks are near danger level.”
• “The world population is adding “another Britain” every year. This will continue until mid-century. By then we will have an extra 2.4bn mouths to feed.”
• “A report by Standard Chartered, “The End of Cheap Food” (quotation marks/PH), said North Africa and the Middle East have already hit the buffers. The region imports 71pc of its rice and 58pc of its corn, It lacks water to boost output. The population is growing fast. It will have to import, and cross fingers.”

Conversations With ‘Pop’ Smith: PH Question – ‘Pop’, any thoughts on preparations for specific events like catastrophic weather (hurricanes, etc.), terrorist attacks, or maybe oil embargo ?

‘Pop’ Smith: First, let me just say that your best preparation is a strong general level of preparedness. Being able to provide for you and yours, and maybe a few others, the basics in water, food, shelter, medical care and security for a time. It’s a base to build on, or adjust on, to specific circumstances.

Two or three things come mind here in addition: First, if you know ahead of time that a hurricane, flood or world class snow fall/winter is approaching then you have time to do things like add extra water or food or fuel for your vehicles or stoves/heaters or pet food, etc.

Second, if the world situation appears to be breaking bad then you might do all the things just mentioned and maybe add some extra cash to your stash for a longer period of difficulty and maybe get your doctor to write some extra Rx’s for any critically necessary medicines a family member might need. Third, preparedness is a process toward greater independence and sustainability during hard times. You have to keep the process in motion and direction in times where resources are readily available so that when the hard times do arrive, you’ll be as ready as you can be.

Figure you’ll never be perfectly prepared but you can/will be prepared enough to adjust, function and get through/on.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

• “As the global and U.S. economies emerge from the downturn, economists predict that there is going to be some sticker shock at the checkout line. Food prices, they say, are heading higher and when you combine that with an unemployment rate that’s expected to linger near a three-decade high for at least another year, it’s even more unwelcome news.”

• “The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects overall food prices to rise as much as 4 percent in the U.S. by the end of 2010. Yet, some economists think they will climb by as much as 5 percent.”
• “The end result? Consumers should keep an eye on oil prices, which not only impact what they pay at the pump but also what they pay at the checkout counter.”

PH Comment: In the first quarter of this year PrudentHome made five predictions for 2009. Three of them were: 1.Expect higher oil prices by years end., 2. Expect higher food prices before next year. and 3. Average Americans will experience a lower standard of living this year. All of those things have and are coming to pass and we expect the same for 2010. Prepare.

Conversations with ’Pop’ Smith:

PH Question: “ ‘Pop’, one of the most prevalent lines of thought today  is in regards to  folks responding to some sudden/catastrophic event by throwing prep gear into their vehicle and making a run for their retreat. Any thoughts?

‘Pop’ Smith: “First, a place to go that’s out of the mainstream and self-sustaining if things get really bad in the country is  really ideal. That said, getting to that place/retreat if things suddenly, or even gradually, get really bad is highly problematic. If the retreat is close, say within a tank of gas, and you leave early enough then things should work out pretty well. But if your having to wait until the “balloon goes up” before you strike out then you have some really bad potential problems.

First, do a quick review in you mind regarding the travel conditions that existed during nearly any of the last decades major hurricanes remembering that travel then was essentially unopposed by state of federal governments (time here to review two of the last presidential directives/orders signed by President Geo. W. Bush in about his last year in office and note that these give the president nearly absolute power over the entire country in a national emergency that he would unilaterally define and declare. What if he decided to restrict all interstate transportation immediately upon declaration of an emergency? Think not, then refer back to what happened to all U.S. air travel right after 9/11.)

Second, consider this: when you leave your place, for a short or long run after an event, you immediately become a refugee for the time you’re in transit. That’s the bottom line. Leave early.”

Until next time, keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers moving fast.

In “… an interview given by former Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh to the Sunday Times in which he said that if Iran were not further sanctioned by this Christmas Israel would attack the country. Sneh told the paper that if Israel were forced to attack the Islamic Republic on its own it would do so …”

PH – Focus: PrudentHome.com has mentioned the potential conflict between Israel and Iran several times in the past and has discussed some of the possible world-wide consequences stemming from such an event              (remember the closing of the Straits of Hormuz with its conveying forty percent of the world’s oil during a time of global recession/depression?) and we’re mentioning it again because time may be running out for a peaceful resolution of this conflict: less than ninety days.

No one can say with any certainty what the future of this or any difficulty will be, but what can be said is that now is an excellent time for the prudent family to focus. Focus on preparing for what appears to be an even more difficult and uncertain future in a host of different areas: continued (and perhaps worsening) economic downturn, influential regional/geo-political upheaval and/or war, climate change, resource depletion, population increases, and food availability concerns.

To name a few.

Focus on what your family can do to mitigate the effects of these or similar events on your family. Focus on developing greater independence from the existing economic system in a self-sustaining way. Focus on your family providing, for your family, more of what it needs to function in all the essential areas: shelter, food, water, medical care and security.

Focus on strengthening faith, family, friends, and neighbors.

Focus.

Conversations With ‘Pop’ Smith:

PH Question – Pop, there’s a lot of talk today about walk-out packs,  kits, ‘rucks’ etc., and they’re referred to as GOOD bags, BOB’s, WOB’s and a host of other acronyms. What a lot of folks are saying is that if things really break bad, they’ll just  “saddle up” and make for the woods. Any thoughts?

‘Pop’: Actually, that particular sentiment was more popular in “back in the day”. Today, it has less popularity because folks have been thinking-it-through a little more: there’s too many people, not enough woods, and a few have even tried to shoulder a forty to fifty pound pack for several rough-country  miles – a clarifying experience – and then just said, “mebbe not”.

Basically, a bag is to get you where you’re going and to provide for your needs (shelter, water, food, medicine, and security) along the way and/or for a relatively short while after. With great skill, health, conditioning, experience, and a good bit of luck, there are a very few individuals that could provide for themselves (survive) for quite some time. However, the “very few” aren’t taking along an aging parent, a child(ren) or a spouse with a chronic medical condition -  just to name a few additional concerns.

A bag is vital as a plan, or part of a plan ’B’ or ’C’. It’s for when your place is no longer viable, you need to get back to your place or someplace else; something like that. You must have one (several preferably, with each for a specific need/situation) as a part of any realistic preparation program but it’s probably not your first choice for a “home”.

“So why is unemployment and underemployment so high, and why is it likely to remain high for some time? Because, as noted, people who are worried about their jobs, and who are also trying to get out from under a pile of debt, are not going to do a lot of shopping. And businesses that don’t have customers aren’t going to be doing a lot of new investing. And foreign nations also suffering from high unemployment aren’t going to buy a lot of our goods and services.

And without customers, companies won’t hire.  They’ll cut payrolls instead.

Which brings us to the obvious question: Who’s going to buy the stuff we make of the services we provide, and therefore bring jobs back? There’s only one buyer left: The government.”

Food – Backyard Chickens: “Americans turn to backyard chickens for food, security” by  Laura Zuckerman (9/16/09) posted atYAHOO.NEWS via energybulletin.net on 10/1/09, gives us some insight as to what some Americans are doing to meet today’s hard times and some possible harder times in the future. Here’s some of the “doings“:

• “ (Cindy) Thomas is not a farmer and she was not raised on a farm. But the Salmon (Idaho) woman is one of a growing number of Americans who have turned to chickens in the face of a flagging economy, scares about food supply and a strengthening drive to acquire locally produced food.
• In Idaho and Washington state, poultry hatcheries and farm stores say sales of chicks are soaring, with some reporting a rise of 70 percent compared to last tear.
• “We’ve had a hard time filling orders,” said Annette Whitley of Dunlap Hatchery, a facility in southwest Idaho that supplies chickens for eggs and eating – layers and fryers – across the United States.”
• “ Cities are scrambling to keep pace with the outcropping of interest in backyard chickens. Many rules in residential areas restrict rooster-free flocks to manageable numbers – less than a dozen – and concentrate on minimizing noise and odors.”
• “In the underlying ethos is self-sufficiency as a buffer against an uncertain economy, then layer hens, or pullets, are a practical undertaking requiring little space, time and expense, said Jim Hermes, extension poultry specialist with the animal sciences department at Oregon State University.
• “Chickens are a good fit for suburban living,” he said.
• “I don’t know what the  economy is going to do but I do know where I’m going to get my food,” said Karen Mcllroy, who maintains 65 hens near Tacoma, Wash. “And I know if I lost my job I would still be able to eat.”

PH Reminder: On a similar tack, get your seeds (open pollinated/heirloom) for next years garden as soon as they become available and seriously consider getting extra to have two gardens worth on hand at all times. We have the feeling that seeds may be hard to come by if things keep going in this direction.

Until nest time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.