Unemployment: “Brown Manure, Not Green Shoots – The jobs situation is even worse than the headlines” is the forbes.com headline for it’s article by Nouriel Roubini (NYU Stern School of Business Professor and generally right-on economic prognosticator).

• For the “man-in-the-street” (and that’s us too!), the article discusses unemployment as it relates to a supposed beginning economic upswing. Here are a few key points:
• “The June employment report suggests that the alleged green shoots are mostly yellow weeds that may eventually turn into brown manure. The employment report shows that conditions in the labor market continue to be extremely weak … .”
• “It is very clear that the unemployment rate could reach 10% by later this summer – around August or September – and will be closer to 10.5%, if not 11% by year-end. I expect unemployment to peak at around 11% at some point in 2010, well above historical standards for even severe recessions.”
• “It’s clear that even if the recession were to be over anytime soon – and it’s not going to be over before the end of the year – job losses are going to continue for at least another year and a half.”

PH Note: Remember that while the professor has been nearly always correct in the direction of economic trends, he seems to frequently underestimate the extent of those trends and that economists in general almost never estimate/discuss the social CONSEQUENCES of these economic realities (read: civil disorder and political instability).

Credit Delinquencies: money.cnn.com this past 7/9/09 posted this, “Credit delinquencies hit record high” by Julianne Pepitone.  Here are some highlights:

• “Soaring unemployment and the housing bust are leaving consumers hard-pressed to make loan payments on everything from credit cards to cars.’
• “The percentage of borrowers at least 30 days late paying a balance is the highest since the group (the American Bankers Association) began keeping records in 1974.”
• “The number one driver of delinquencies is job loss Chessen (ABA Chief Economist, James Chessen) said, “When people lose their jobs, they can’t pay their bills.”

’Q & A’: On 7/9/09 Mish Shedlock’s globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com website posted this little Q & A clip between an interviewer and the Former Assistant Treasury Secretary, Craig Roberts. Here’s the clip:

“Craig Roberts: bank bailout was a fraud and it won’t succeed. Don’t know what sort of stupidity the Treasury Secretary and the Federal Reserve will resort to next.”

“Max Kesier: Quick question. What should the treasury Secretary be doing?

“Craig Roberts: He should be trying to save the dollar as the world’s reserve currency which means stopping the wars, reducing the bailout money, and trying to reduce the trade and budget deficits in order to save the dollar. That’s what he should be doing.”

“Max Kesier: Does the treasury secretary work for the people of does he work for the banking system on Wall Street?”

“Craig Roberts: He works for Goldman Sachs.”

Until next time: keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

Family Food Storage–Why: Though there a number of reasons (population, climate, natural resource depletion, low food stocks/reserves, to name a few) for the current food security situation in the world, there is no doubt that it more fragile than it has been for several generations.

Today we’re going to take a look at a theory regarding the view of the very wealthy towards their accumulation of wealth and it’s impact on their hard(est) -times preparations.

This theory comes to us from Don Rodricks, a reporter for the Baltimore Sun, and his

March 24, 2009 piece entitled “The rich prepare for the apocalypse–CEO’s desire for even more wealth a preparation for end-times luxury”. Here is some of Mr. Rodrick’s views and theory:

• “… my theory about why the corporate rich continue to indulge and reward themselves despite a public uproar amid financial crisis… there’s something else going on. I call it hoarding up for the apocalypse.”

Note: Although “hoarding” is technically defined as “a supply stored up and hidden or kept in reserve” (Webster’s New World College Dictionary, 4^th Edition– a morally neutral definition) it’s connotation is often one of immorally or illegally gathering a supply of critical or necessary goods thereby depriving others of a “fair share”. Availability to others during the gathering period is generally not mentioned.

• “As the world population grows, as the recession expands and unemployment worsens, as the globe continues to warm and the oceans rise, as questions about the future of energy and natural resources become graver, as civil unrest becomes a greater concern, the masters of the universe grab all they can.”

• “Those who work in financial markets and deal in commodities, those who watch global trends in energy and food, production and population growth – those who have seen the numbers- I believe they have become gravely pessimistic about what life on Earth in the next quarter century will become, and that’s what drives them.”

• And finally, “The day will come when they need to make a quick escape to their mountain retreats leaving the rest of us on the ground.”

Here are some of the reasons the we hear for a family food storage program:

• Job Loss
• The Economy: recession moving into a depression, hyperinflation
• Food Safety: wide spread food contamination (ie, salmonella)
• Food Security/Availability: oil shortages affecting production or transport
• Civil Unrest: strikes of riots
• Climate Change: drought reducing food production

Family Food Storage–How: Here are two of the best and most economical tools we know of for helping the family define, develop, refine or expand a food storage program:

How to Develop a Low-Cost Family Food-Storage System
by Anita Evangelista

And Just In Case by Kathy Harrison.  A comment is in order here: Kathy Harrison’s book is actually a work on self sufficiency for the family in difficult times. We’re [highly] recommending it here because of it’s excellent section on family food storage. This book is a “must have” for the family as a guide and reference work for general family preparedness. We plan a complete book review on it a little later this month. We’ve already done one on Ms. Evangelista’s book.

Both books/tools are soft-cover and inexpensive.

Until next time, keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.