• “Despite announcements to the contrary, Russia still plans to deliver its S-300 advanced air-defense missiles to Iran, according to a senior Egyptian security official speaking to WND.
• The official said Russia also intends to see the system delivered to Syria, from which it can also be transferred to Hezbollah militia operating in Lebanon.”
• The S-300PMUI is a mobile system designed to shoot down aircraft and cruise missiles. Analysts say the S-300 system would make any Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities more difficult.”

Article #2: “Who will blink first in Iran’s nuclear poker game?” by Aluf Benn at haaretz.com this past Wednesday,3/3/10. Here are some of the articles more important observations:

• “Netanyahu (Israeli Prime Minister) managed to convince the world that Israel is on the verge of a preemptive war to try to foil Iran’s nuclear program. His speeches on a second Holocaust and Amalek, the acceleration of military preparations, the exercises on the Home Front, the distribution of gas masks and even the stockpiling of dollars by the bank of Israel all suggest that Israel is planning to strike Iran, as it did when it attacked the nuclear plants in Iraq and Syria.”
• “Netanyahu is playing poker and hiding his most important card: the Israel Defense Forces’ true capabilities to destroy Iran’s nuclear installations.”
• “Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who is functioning as a super-adviser to Netanyahu for national security affairs, said in response (to  Iran’s Ahmadinejad commenting on the destruction of Israel) that “the clock for the Iranian regime’s downfall is ticking.”
• “Israel and Iran are gambling that only one of them will survive the confrontation. Is this threat serious? History suggests it is.”

Article#3: “ Mideast war in the ‘very’ near future? — Dramatic escalation in cooperation between Israel’s foes “ by Aaron Klein at wnd.com on 3/3/10. Here’s some of what the article said:

• “…Egypt is concerned Israel could be ina a conflict in the very near future with Syria or the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, a senior Egyptian security official told WND.”
• “The official said his country is concerned about a coming conflict but did not mention a specific timeframe.”
• “Last week, Syria hosted a summit with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and Kahled Meshal, head of Hamas. All parties expressed solidarity each other and vowed the destruction of Israel.
• The meeting was followed up with another confab in Iran last weekend entitled “Islamic and National Solidarity with the Palestinian People.” The summit was attended by the leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria. All three denounced Israel.”

PH Comment: There is one overriding concern in the above information for all of the prudent homes across America: oil. Without a full supply of relatively cheap (below about $85 per barrel) oil, America at this historic and economic juncture would find it hard to maintain her economic balance. We’ve spoken about this before at PH, and will again, but be aware and strengthen your preparations in every aspect. If something like this goes down, there will be little or no warning.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weather’s changing fast.

Iran Again: A weather report attempts to give an idea of upcoming/incoming weather in order for its viewers/listeners/readers to have some advance notice of the coming weather conditions and events, especially those that could produce dangerous results, and prepare accordingly. Here’s a bit of weather PrudentHome thinks is worth watching for:

• “US raises stakes on Iran by sending in ships and missiles” is the title of this Chris McGreal piece from The Guardian (guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan31) made available via Drudge Report (drudge report.com) on 2/1/10. Here are some of its key points:

• “Tension between the US and Iran heightened dramatically today with the disclosure that Barak Obama is deploying a missile shield to protect American allies in the Gulf from attack by Iran. The US is dispatching Patriot defensive missiles to four countries — Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait — and keeping two ships in the Gulf capable of shooting down Iranian missiles. Washington is also helping Saudi Arabia develop a force to protect its oil installations.”

• KEY POINT: “Washington is also concerned at the threat of action by Israel, which is predicting that Iran will be able to build a nuclear missile within a year, a much faster timetable than assessed by the US, and is warning that it will not let Tehran come close to completion if diplomacy fails”

In an economically/financially  fragile world, a major war in the Middle East, with its almost certain effect of reducing oil availability, could/would be devastating to the industrialized nations of the world and their peoples: that includes the USA and us.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weather’s moving fast.

More Middle -East Tensions: We spoke a short while ago about the oil-critical Strait of Hormuz and  now we see this headline over at newsmaxworld.com on 12/14/09: “Iran Working on Secret Nuclear Trigger”. Here are some of the articles key points:

• “LONDON – Confidential intelligence documents obtained by The Times show that Iran is working on testing a key final component of a nuclear bomb.” The notes, from Iran’s most sensitive military nuclear project, describe a four-year plan to test a neutron iniator, the component of a nuclear bomb that triggers an explosion. Foreign intelligence agencies date them to early 2007, four years after Iran was thought to have suspended its weapons programme.”

• “The technical document describes the use of a neutron source, uranium deuteride, which independent experts confirm has no possible civilian or military use other than in a nuclear weapon. Uranium deuteride is the material used in Pakistan’s bomb, from where Iran obtained its blueprint.”

And this from foxnews.com on 12/16/09: “Iran Test-Fires Its Longest-Range Missile” (from 12/16/09 AP):

• “TEHRAN, Iran — Iran on Wednesday test-fired an upgraded version of its most advanced missile, which is capable of hitting Israel and parts of Europe.”

• “LIVESHOTS: Important Points About Iran’s Missile Test”

• “The two-stage Sajjil-2, and is powered entirely by solid-fuel while the older, medium-range Sahab-3 missile uses a combination of soild and liquid fuel in its most advanced form.”

• “Defense Minister Gen. Ahmad Vahidi  … He said the new version (the Sajjil-2) can be fueled more quickly and flies faster than previous ones making it harder to shoot down … ”

• “Solid-fuel missiles like the Sajjil-2 are more accutate than the liquid fuel missiles of similar range currently possessed by Iran. They are also a concern because they can be fueled in advance and moved or hidden in silos.”

PH Comment: The net-same as our last comment on the Strait of Hormuz situation: If we had to place a bet, it would be placed on war.
Prepare families, prepare.

Conversations With ‘Pop’ Smith: PH Question – ‘Pop’, a lot of prepping/posting folks are making                                suggestions for preparedness items as gifts during this holiday season. Any thoughts here?
‘Pop’: It’s a great time for giving preparedness gifts, what with the sales and all, as they’re sure to stimulate focus and interest on/in  preparedness. That’s especially important in these times. Here are a couple of inexpensive gifts (“stocking stuffers”) that should always prove useful:

1. A good-quality manual can-opener

2. A pair of good-quality toenail clippers

3. An eye glasses repair/maintenance kit with added spare parts (screws, etc.).

Also, I haven’t seen it mentioned much but this a great time to acquire/expand your stores with “seasonal” food items that are especially offered for holiday use at very cheap prices. Here are some of the items that I take advantage of:

1. sugar

2. baking soda

3. baking powder

4. hard candy

5. canned yams

6. cranberry sauce

just to name a few. Keep seasonal foods in mind (they can be eaten any time of year) and watch your expiration dates.
Merry Christmas!

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

Photo credit: KaCey97007

2. Static to Lower Wages/Incomes: Regardless of “overall” economic models that may show increases in incomes, employment, etc., the average American will have less money to deal with the expenses of family; both necessary and elective. A quick look at Social Security payments will provide an example here.

3. A Generally Weaker & Weakening Dollar: This will be due primarily to increasing levels of federal debt and the fact that this debt is being met with borrowed and newly printed money. These responses will push up prices, especially imports, and thereby contribute heavily to #1. Pay particular attention for a continuing erosion of the U.S. dollar (for our debt policy stated above) as the world’s reserve currency. More countries will begin doing business between themselves through the exchange of their respective currencies and/or barter. More countries will ask for payments in currencies other than the U. S. dollar (such as the Euro) and/or call for a “market basket” of currencies or an internationally recognized unit of value. Also watch for countries reducing the U.S. dollar as a portion of their reserves.

4. A Lower Standard of Living for The Average American Family: This will be a result if #’s 1-3 and a
continuing weak economy with weak employment (U6) stretching far into the future. Look to the real employment numbers (and other important statistics) from sources like John Williams’ shadowstats.com NOT the federal government.

5. Increased Civil Unrest Over That Of 2009: It might be due to higher food prices, higher taxes/fees,  jobless benefit cuts (the states are running out unemployment money) or some government policy or another but the increasing level of citizen dissatisfaction with current conditions almost assures an increase in  civil unrest (and a government response) to further significant disruption in American’s day-to-day lives.

6. Increased Terrorist Activity In The U.S. & The World: Terrorism appears to be expanding all around the world. It’s message is resonating and captivating not just among the poor but with the affluent young also. Whether in Yemen or London, more are being influenced to support and/or  join this movement. The result of terrorists recruiting successes will nearly guarantee more terrorist activity and attacks in the U.S. and around the world. The individual that called this “The Long War” was spot on!

7. A “Black Swan” Event: (“the existence & occurence of high-impact, hard to predict and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectation”) Here are three possibilities with any of the three providing major repercussions (especially #1):

• War between Israel and Iran resulting in a closing of the Strait of Hormuz (at least)
• and a dramatic reduction in oil availability for the industrialized world (at least).
• The failure/disintegration of a major nation such as Mexico or Pakistan.
• Bankruptcy of a major nation such as Greece, the Baltic’s, or one from Eastern Europe.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

Photo credit: Mike Gadd

The Straight of Hormuz: If you’ve read much of PrudentHome over time then you’re familiar with our periodic updates on events concerning the ongoing friction between Israel and Iran. We’ve covered this area, almost alone among the preparedness and survival blogs, because we believe it represents a potentially critical flashpoint of conflict that could dramatically reduce America’s ability to function as an industrial nation by closing or substantially restricting the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

The following article from WorldNet Daily (wnd.com) on 12/7/09 entitled “Navy: Iran able to shut down oil route – Nearly 1/3 of world’s supplies pass through Strait of Hormuz” (excerpted from Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin) brings our concerns to greater light. Here are some of the articles key points:

• “The Office of Naval Intelligence has confirmed that Iran can shut down the strategic Strait of Hormuz through which move more than 30 percent of the world’s oil supplies pass according to a report from Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin.
• The report was posted on the website for the ONI, but abruptly removed after about a week.Before its unexpected removal, G2B was able to obtain a copy of the unclassified report …
• “World economies would suffer a “serious economic impact from a sustain closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to greatly reduced supplies of crude oil, petroleum supplies, and (liquefied natural gas), “ ONI said.
• The report also pointed to Iran’s naval modernization to help carry out such a closure. Indeed, the report said that Iran not only is expanding its current arms inventories but is adding “increasingly sophisticated systems” which it has acquired from China and Russia.”

PH Comment: This informative article continues on, mentioning the types of sophisticated arms systems that Iran has and is thought to be acquiring. But perhaps the most important piece of information the article presents is the admission on the part of the U.S. Navy that it cannot keep the Strait of Hormuz open if Iran moves to shut it down.

To our knowledge, the U.S. Navy has never admitted anything like this before; at least in public.
Also, we’ve recently heard from an interview with  a former U. S. Ambassador that, in his opinion, UN sanctions on Iran – past, present, and future – will be too little and too late. Iran is too close to actually having a nuclear weapon to be influenced by any level/type of sanctions.

So here we are: either Iran is allowed to become a belligerent (some say) nuclear power in an area of critical significance to the industrial nations of the world or … war to change her standing and mind. If we had to place a bet it would be placed on war. Prepare families prepare.

Until next time, keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

In “… an interview given by former Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh to the Sunday Times in which he said that if Iran were not further sanctioned by this Christmas Israel would attack the country. Sneh told the paper that if Israel were forced to attack the Islamic Republic on its own it would do so …”

PH – Focus: PrudentHome.com has mentioned the potential conflict between Israel and Iran several times in the past and has discussed some of the possible world-wide consequences stemming from such an event              (remember the closing of the Straits of Hormuz with its conveying forty percent of the world’s oil during a time of global recession/depression?) and we’re mentioning it again because time may be running out for a peaceful resolution of this conflict: less than ninety days.

No one can say with any certainty what the future of this or any difficulty will be, but what can be said is that now is an excellent time for the prudent family to focus. Focus on preparing for what appears to be an even more difficult and uncertain future in a host of different areas: continued (and perhaps worsening) economic downturn, influential regional/geo-political upheaval and/or war, climate change, resource depletion, population increases, and food availability concerns.

To name a few.

Focus on what your family can do to mitigate the effects of these or similar events on your family. Focus on developing greater independence from the existing economic system in a self-sustaining way. Focus on your family providing, for your family, more of what it needs to function in all the essential areas: shelter, food, water, medical care and security.

Focus on strengthening faith, family, friends, and neighbors.

Focus.

Conversations With ‘Pop’ Smith:

PH Question – Pop, there’s a lot of talk today about walk-out packs,  kits, ‘rucks’ etc., and they’re referred to as GOOD bags, BOB’s, WOB’s and a host of other acronyms. What a lot of folks are saying is that if things really break bad, they’ll just  “saddle up” and make for the woods. Any thoughts?

‘Pop’: Actually, that particular sentiment was more popular in “back in the day”. Today, it has less popularity because folks have been thinking-it-through a little more: there’s too many people, not enough woods, and a few have even tried to shoulder a forty to fifty pound pack for several rough-country  miles – a clarifying experience – and then just said, “mebbe not”.

Basically, a bag is to get you where you’re going and to provide for your needs (shelter, water, food, medicine, and security) along the way and/or for a relatively short while after. With great skill, health, conditioning, experience, and a good bit of luck, there are a very few individuals that could provide for themselves (survive) for quite some time. However, the “very few” aren’t taking along an aging parent, a child(ren) or a spouse with a chronic medical condition -  just to name a few additional concerns.

A bag is vital as a plan, or part of a plan ’B’ or ’C’. It’s for when your place is no longer viable, you need to get back to your place or someplace else; something like that. You must have one (several preferably, with each for a specific need/situation) as a part of any realistic preparation program but it’s probably not your first choice for a “home”.

• “With the prospect of Israel bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities looming (just listen to Benjamin Netanyahu’s impassioned speech before the UN last Friday/PH), Tehran has renewed its threat to shut down the strategic Straight of Hormuz, through which up to 40 percent of the world’s oil passes …”
• “While the threat from Iranian authorities isn’t new, the fact that it could be blocked, even temporarily, comes at a bad time for the world economy in which a spike in energy prices, even for a short time, could have a detrimental impact.”

Oil and Availability: From The Oil Drum, at theoildrum.com, on 9/28/09 we have an “Interview with Sadad al Husseini (a geologist, reservoir engineer – production engineer who began work with Aramco in 1970 working in exploration, production and project management and who is now a consultant) – “The Facts Are There”. Here are some of Mr. Husseini’s observations on oil availability in the near and longer term:

“Sadad: I’ve been tracking the number of projects, globally, for a long time in the Middle East and elsewhere — Russia, Brazil, west coast of Africa and others. A lot of this information is in the public domain, so there is no mystery there. The International Energy Agency recently reported on the same numbers. The bottom line is that there are not enough projects. There is not enough new capacity coming on line, within say the next five or six years, to make up for global declines. …”

Even at these modest decline rates, we are basically going to see a shortage of capacity within two to three years. We’re being lulled by the current excess capacity, which has more to do with lower demand than anything to do with supply. So we do have a problem in the near term. In the longer term it’s even worse because in the longer term the lead time to discover, develop and put on line production runs into 10 years. And there isn’t enough being done in the long term as well. So it’s both a short and a long-term problem.“

PH Comment: With all of the foregoing, and knowing that food production is very much related to oil production (quantity produced, processed, transported/distributed, stored, and cost), perhaps it’s time to remind ourselves of those two nagging questions: “Got food storage?” and “Got garden?”

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

• “Israeli media has reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Moscow on Monday in a bid to dissuade Russia from selling weapons to Iran.”
• “A spokesman for Netanyahu said he had visited a security installation in Israel … amid media speculation about his whereabouts.”
• “Media reports over the weekend, citing military sources in Israel and Russia, said a cargo ship that went missing in the Atlantic for almost a month had been carrying Russian air defense S-300 missiles to Iran that were detected by Israel.”
• “ … Israel supports U.S.-led diplomatic efforts to deny Iran the means of making a nuclear bomb.
• “BUT (caps/PH) Israel has hinted it could use force in a standoff that has often pitted Western powers against Russia.”
• From News Max (newsmaxworld.com/global) of 9/12/09 we note “Russia’s Putin Fights Sanctions on Iran”. Here’s the nut:
• “Vladimir Putin’s spokesman says the Russian prime minister has warned against the use of force or new sanctions against Iran over it’s nuclear program.”

PH Comment: There’s a growing/worsening problem between Israel and Iran. It pits Israel’s security concerns against Iran’s possible development of nuclear weapons (coupled with it’s rapidly developing advances in missile technology) and her threats to wipe Israel off the face of the earth.

The big power players, the U.S., Russia, EU, UN, et. al., have unable/unwilling to effectively help resolve this problem.

If Israel goes into Iran, the outcome would be catastrophic for the middle-east (a wider war) and the rest of the world: read a dramatic reduction in available oil (with it’s attendant price increase) during a world-wide economic recession/depression. Hold on to your hats!

Until next week, keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers moving fast.

Geo-Political– “Israel stands ready to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites” is the title of the Sheera Frenkel article posted 4/16/09 at timesonline.co.uk. The article discusses what is arguably the most explosive geo-political possibility currently under world scrutiny from the Israeli perspective: an Israeli air-strike on the nuclear facilities of Iran. Here are some highlights:

• The Israeli military is preparing itself to launch a massive aerial assault on Iran’s nuclear facilities within days of being given the go-ahead by it’s new government.”
• “Two nationwide civil defense drills will help to prepare the public (Israeli) for the retaliation that Israel could face.”
• **It is felt that it “…was unlikely that Israel could carry out the attack without receiving at least tacit approval from America, which has struck a more reconciliatory tone in dealing with Iran under its new administration.”
• “Israel has made it clear that it will not tolerate the threat of a nuclear Iran. According to Israeli intelligence they will have the bomb within two years. Once they have a bomb it will be too late, and Israel will have no choice but to strike …”

**Note: It is arguable that since Israel considers a nuclear-armed Iran an existential threat, and given the shifting U.S. position towards Iran (as well as stated differences in U.S. and Israeli intelligence estimates regarding the time frame for Iranian bomb development); no Israeli heads-up to the U.S. would be forthcoming. An Israel- Iran conflict would take U.S. and world economic recovery off the table for …?

The Economy–‘Hardest of 3 Paths’: newsmax.com’s 4/19/09 post by Arnaud de Borchgrave entitled “U.S. Must Take Hardest of 3 Paths to Survive” presents our recent and current economic situation with alternatives for a sound economic future. Here are some excerpts;

• “From right to left, Washington’s think-tank senior fellows agree that the capitalist system is broken.“
• “Borrow-and -spend now must give way to save-and -invest. …Borrowing $2 billion to $3 billion a day from other countries — mostly China— to maintain the world’s highest standard of living, based on conspicuous consumption, at a time of growing world shortages no longer is viable.”
• ’Meanwhile, “Saving America’s Future: A Challenge to the American People,” as spelled out by 24 of the nations most illustrious names, including voices from both major parties. The study, which the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress released, warns that worse is yet to come because today’s economic reality is “only the tip of the iceberg.”
• “And if we do not act now, in everything from “structural challenges in financing our government” to “ ensuring quality public education, competing globally for jobs, extending healthcare while reducing its cost” and much more, “a far greater crisis awaits below the surface and threatens to sink our ship of state.”
• ’The federal government is “increasingly dysfunctional, politically and ideologically divided, shortsighted, compartmentalized, bureaucratic and arcane,”…
• “America is faced with three options: business as usual, muddle through, or a transformational future …”
• The last option is hardest as “Transformational, …will require citizens to shed their role as spectators and demand that their leaders “set aside short-term interests and take bold, nonpartisan steps, promoting the spirit of creativity, innovation, and entrepreneurship” that has carried the United States for 233 years.

Until next time, keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

The article entitled “Chief Economist: It’s A Depression” (prisonplanet.com, 1/12/09) goes on to note that Professor Morici told the financial publication Kiplinger, “…that a 5 per cent contraction in the fourth quarter made the crisis ‘worse than a recession’ .”

The article continues, noting that Professor Morici’s opinion closely correlates to the one delivered by the prestigious financial publication, “The Economist” earlier this month “…that based on the characteristics of the current financial crisis, the U.S. is in a depression, not a recession.”

THE ECONOMY–A CHINA “NO” ? : moneynews.com notes in it’s 1/09/09 entitled “China Turning It’s Back on U.S. Debt” that as the world’s financial crisis grows and the U.S. need for financing increases, China is turning inward to meet it’s own financial needs thereby promising to reduce it’s buying of U.S. bonds.

It might be helpful here to recall that the U.S. NEEDS to borrow about 3 billion dollars per day to keep it’s financial house in order and that China has played a significant role in providing a portion of this financing.

GEO-POLITICAL–ISRAEL VS. IRAN : “ The Time Clock Has Run Out: Israel Ready to Strike Iran” says the headline story today at newsmax.com. by Jim Meyers.

Newsmax says in this article, that Washington sources tell them that, “…Israel indeed will launch a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities soon–possibly in just days as President George W. Bush prepares to leave office.”

This information seems to be supported by a prediction from former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton who has stated that he believed that Israel would stage such a raid if Barak Obama were to become president and that this would happen between the presidential election and Obama’s inauguration.

Also seeming to support the possibility of an Isreali strike are the comments by former U.S. Secretary of Defense, William Perry that Obama would face a major crisis shortly after taking office over Iran’s nuclear weapons program and that “…it seems clear that Israel will not sit by idle while Iran takes the final steps toward becoming a nuclear power.”

The world is in rapid and possibly radical change.

Until next time then, keep your eyes on the horizon.