THE ECONOMY: On December 30, 2008 (Tuesday), PrudentHome ran a tiny section called “What We See For 2009” giving four of our predictions for the U.S. in the coming year. There was a fifth and we neglected to include it.  Here it is:

# 5. The standard of living will decline for the average U.S. citizen during 2009. ‘Sorry’ we left it out on Tuesday and even more sorry we see it coming for 2009.

COMMUNITY GARDENS: Energy Bulletin (energybulletin.net) on December 30, 2008 in it’s Food & Agriculture section presented an excellent little piece entitled, “Community Gardens Contribute to Food Security” by Stephanie Nieuwoudt, IPS.. While the articles’ specific geography refers to South Africa, the rationale, technical contents of the article, and it’s relevance to families everywhere today is clear. Here’s an excerpt:

“In the global economic downturn where food insecurity has increased due to soaring food prices [projected to increase 6-9% in the U.S. in 2009], backyard and community gardens are some of the most basic survival strategies…A backyard garden four times the size of an ordinary door, can supply a household of six people with fresh vegetables for a year. By replanting and ensuring that the ground is fertilized well, the four-door garden can be farmed fruitfully for years.”

“Trench gardening is also popular in the townships,” said Visser. “The people dig trenches into which all their biodegradable waste is thrown. It is covered with soil and seeds are sown on top. The soil is high in nutrients and it can be farmed for up to four years before new compost is needed.”

3 GARDENS: Buy enough garden seeds to plant three full gardens. Here’s why:

1. One third of the seeds will be used to plant this years garden with any extras saved for a second sowing/planting later in the season or year.
2. The second third will be saved to compensate for bad weather or for next years’ garden.
3. The last third is your insurance policy for “eventualities”. Stuff happens: your early efforts at seed-saving aren’t as successful as you’d hoped/planned, a whole stretch of bad weather, helping out family or neighbors in need to develop their own garden, future seed availability or expense …

Note: All seeds should be open-pollinated, varieties developed to grow successfully in your climate, and represent foods you and your family will eat at minimum.

–PLUS : “Plus” here refers to perennial fruit and nut trees. These can form a foundation for your families’ on-going food security as they produce year after year with modest maintenance (fertilization, pruning, insect control, etc). Remember, if you have limited space there are dwarf varieties designed to use very little space or can even be grown in containers. Think “up” too, as there are some perennial food-producing vines that can be trellised.

Note: Perennial fruit and nut trees share the possibility, with garden seeds, of having their purchase and maintenance expenses shared with family, friends, or neighbors especially when a sharing of their production is offered.

Like vegetables, varieties should be chosen to grow successfully in your climate and represent foods that you and your family will eat.

We’ll have some more home gardening ideas to share next week. Until then, keep your eyes on the horizon.

Like the weather, economic, political, and environmental events are beyond our individual capabilities to control but like the weather too, we’re somewhat able to predict their coming and prepare. So what does the weather look like as it begins to move toward us just at the horizon ? Our economy thrives on cheap, available credit and fossil fuels (oil). Now, if credit is cheap it is certainly less than readily available while oil is not cheap and probably becoming less available.

Three major European banks and a major U. S. investment house are predicting a financial situation , in the U. S. and the world , during the coming months characterized by words like “crisis” and “catastrophic” . This while our own central bank, “ The Fed”, is described as an institution “ without credibility “.

World food stocks, primarily grains, are at a half-century-plus low with major countries preventing grain exports altogether or heavily discouraging those exports thru taxes. While world production is currently at a marginally adequate level, it is fragile. Any significant economic, climate, or geo-political interruption could spell famine on a large scale.(Note: Both China and Saudi Arabia are currently buying farmland in places like Africa and South America)

World oil production levels are nearly maximized though they are currently pretty stable. This stability however, exists in the face of an increasing world demand with it’s attendant price increases.

World fresh water stocks seem to be in about the same shape as food and oil : marginally adequate at current levels barring interruption.

Climate change (warmer, more variable and uncertain weather) brought about by, or significantly influenced by, human activities appears to be a generally accepted scientific position. This change could effect world food production in both the short and long term.

Geo-politically, the world seems to be stumbling along about as usual however, current potential conflicts in major oil producing areas of the middle-east and Africa cause special concerns regarding world oil production interruptions with their attendant price increases.

Now we come to the shy, retiring, 800 pound gorilla in the room…population . While critical world resources, though stretched thin , might be adequate in the short-term we’re adding a population to the world equal to that of the U. S. every 48 months!

What does all this mean to the family and the prudent home? In a word, PREPARATION. This is the same response the family and prudent home gives to any severe weather challenge.

More specific discussion about the “weather” and family responses to it will be found here next week on Tuesday, July 8.

Meanwhile, keep your eyes on the horizon.