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	<title>PrudentHome.com &#187; Weather Report</title>
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	<description>Home of the Reasonably Prepared</description>
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		<title>U.S. Food Worries: The Short-Term and Long-Term</title>
		<link>http://www.prudenthome.com/2010/05/u-s-food-worries-the-short-term-and-long-term/</link>
		<comments>http://www.prudenthome.com/2010/05/u-s-food-worries-the-short-term-and-long-term/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 May 2010 11:30:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>J.P. Redoubt</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Weather Report]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[farming food prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Food Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.prudenthome.com/?p=2164</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[To Acknowledge: Prior to our first post in this week, we had not posted anything on PridentHome for about a month. This was due to a sudden and overwhelming increase in demand from our regular work/job. It was both good and necessary. We trust that our readers  understand where most of us are in today’s [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p><strong> To Acknowledge:</strong> Prior to our first post in this week, we had not posted anything on PridentHome for about a month. This was due to a sudden and overwhelming increase in demand from our regular work/job. It was both good and necessary. We trust that our readers  understand where most of us are in today’s economy.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>U.S. Food In The Short- Term:</strong> Market Skeptics (<a title="marketskeptics.com" href="http://marketskeptics.com" target="_blank">marketskeptics.com</a>) posted this Eric deCarbonnel article on April 23, 2010: “US Food Inflation Spiraling Out of Control”. With a “Thank You” to <a title="survivalblog.com" href="http://survivalblog.com" target="_blank">survivalblog.com</a> -April 27, 2010 &#8211; for sourcing this post we would like to share these points from the article:</p>
<ul>
<li> “The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) today released their Producer Price Index (PPI) report for March 2010 and the latest numbers are shocking. Food  prices for the month rose by 2.4%, it’s sixth consecutive monthly increase and the largest jump in over 26 years. NIA believes that a major breakout in food inflation could be imminent, similar to what is currently being experienced in India.”</li>
<li> “Food stamp usage in the U.S. has now increased for 14 consecutive months. There are now 39.4 million Americans on food stamps, up 22.4% from one year ago. The U.S. government is now paying out more to Americans in benefits than it collects in taxes. …</li>
</ul>
<p>Most financial experts in the mainstream media are proclaiming that the recession is over and inflation is not a problem in the U.S. Unfortunately, they fail to realize that rising food and gasoline prices accounted for 58% of February’s year-over-year 3.85% rise in retail sales. NIA (National Inflation Association/PH) believes price inflation is beginning to accelerate in many areas of the economy besides food and energy, and all increases in U.S. retail sales this year will be due to inflation.”</p>
<blockquote><p><strong>PH Note: </strong>When you access the above article, please note two other valuable articles in the “Key Entries” section: I. “Food Crisis for Dummies” and 2. “Worst Harvest season Ever Seen”. These articles can help strengthen your basic understanding of the U.S. food situation if you’ve not read them.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>U.S. Food In The Long-Term: </strong>LATOC (<a title="lifeaftertheoilcrash.net" href="http://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net" target="_blank">lifeaftertheoilcrash.net</a>) posted access to this great article on 4/28/10 from alternet.org/food: “<a title="We're running out of soil" href="http://www.alternet.org/food/146624/the_food_nightmare_beneath_our_feet:_we%27re_running_out_of_soil" target="_blank">The Food Nightmare Beneath Our Feet: We’re Running Out of Soil</a>”. Here’s the nut:</p>
<ul>
<li> “If you don’t already know the bad news, I’ll make it quick and dirty: we’re running out of soil. As with other prominent resources that are accumulated over millions of years, we, the people of planet Earth, have been churning through the stuff that feeds us since the first Neolithic farmer broke the ground with his crude plow. The rate varies, the methods vary, but the results are eventually the same. Books like Jared Diamond’s “Collapse”  and David Montgomery’s “Dirt: The Erosion of Civilizations” lay out in painful detail the historic connection between depletion and the demise of those societies that undermined the ground beneath their feet.’</li>
</ul>
<blockquote><p><strong>PH Comment:</strong> This article points to John Jevons (author of the first gardening book on PH’s recommended list for the home gardener: “How To Grow More Vegetables* (and fruits, nuts berries grains and other crops) *Than you Ever thought possible On Less Land Than You Can Imagine“ and his prophetic work on sustainable food growing while growing the soil. And this is just a part of why we recommended his book as first.</p></blockquote>
<p>Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.</p>
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		<title>Book Review With Commentary On “Gardening When it Counts &#8211; Growing Food in Hard Times”</title>
		<link>http://www.prudenthome.com/2010/03/book-review-with-commentary-on-%e2%80%9cgardening-when-it-counts-growing-food-in-hard-times%e2%80%9d/</link>
		<comments>http://www.prudenthome.com/2010/03/book-review-with-commentary-on-%e2%80%9cgardening-when-it-counts-growing-food-in-hard-times%e2%80%9d/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Mar 2010 11:30:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>J.P. Redoubt</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Weather Report]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.prudenthome.com/?p=1670</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A continuing book review With Commentary On Gardening When It Counts: Growing Food in Hard Times by Steve Solomon &#8212; Chapter 6 &#8211; “Watering … and not” Chapter 6 &#8211; “Watering … and not”: Mr. Solomon begins this chapter with a discussion of drought, based on some definitions provided by John Widstoe in his 1911 [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A continuing book review With Commentary On <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/086571553X?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=prudentcom03-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=086571553X">Gardening When It Counts: Growing Food in Hard Times</a><img style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=prudentcom03-20&amp;l=as2&amp;o=1&amp;a=086571553X" border="0" alt="" width="1" height="1" /><br />
by Steve Solomon &#8212; Chapter 6 &#8211; “Watering … and not”</p>
<p><strong>Chapter 6 &#8211; “Watering … and not”:</strong> Mr. Solomon begins this chapter with a discussion of drought, based on some definitions provided by John Widstoe in his 1911 book, “Dry Farming”: “… a book about large-scale farming in semi-arid places.”<br />
Author ’Widstoe’ in his listing of “<strong>four chief causes of drouth</strong>”, gives as number (4): “sowing too much seed for the available soil-moisture.” It is here that Mr. Solomon states that “…choosing plant spacing is the single most important decision the gardener will make.” Mr. Solomon then goes on to  criticize the “intensive” gardening practices (raised bed) so popular among many in the country today due their suburban living situations and limited land.</p>
<blockquote><p><strong>PH Comment: </strong>We note that while Mr. Solomon readily criticizes the “intensive” gardening  methods so popular today among home gardeners with small and very-small garden areas, he fails to offer a way for them to expand their available land for food growing. It appears to us that home gardeners in the U.S. have few other good-gardening methods: given the limits of their growing areas.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong><em>“Four spacing systems”</em></strong> is Mr. Solomon’s next section and in it he provides an excellent  two-page chart demonstrating four “Plant spacing possibilities (in inches)” of a large number of garden crops. The spacing possibilities run from the smallest in Column I &#8211; Intensive raised beds per Jeavons, to the largest in Column 4 &#8211; Extensive; little rain of fertigation; everything on the flat. The author recommends Column 2 &#8211; Semi-intensive raised beds per Solomon. Each column is discussed with commentary.</p>
<p>In the following section the author discusses <strong>“Not suffering drought”</strong>. Here he opens with:  “The reason  people fail to match density with the available soil moisture is greed …”.  and ends with this bit of good advice: “… when you are starting a new garden in humid regions, you may want to spread a full dose of fertility-building materials at the end of summer the year before the land will become a veggie garden. This will allow the autumn rains and the spring snowmelt to carry this nutrition into the subsoil.”</p>
<p>Next, Mr. Solomon discusses <strong>“Fertigation”</strong>: this is the technique of using a “… fertigation bucket” that  “…economically and effectively places moisture and nutrition below a growing plant.” This technique is thoroughly discussed along with variations and their benefits. To aid the reader further in his discussion, he presents two valuable charts: “Water retention by soil type” and “Amount of water lost per day in midsummer (by Temperature in summer &#8211; Region &#8211; Inches lost per day)”.</p>
<p><strong>“Foliar feeding”</strong> is the authors next topic. This short section refers to the liquid, topical feeding (by spraying) of plants -  directly on their leaves -  with dilute fertilizers, homemade “teas”, and coca-cola. It is recommended as a substitute for fertigation when water is in short supply.</p>
<p>The last half of the chapter is introduced with the section entitled<strong> “A gardeners textbook of sprinkler irrigation”</strong>. It states close to the beginning (thankfully): <em>“Many gardeners wet down their gardens almost daily with hose and fan nozzle because they want to make sure the beds provide abundant moisture all the time. This method, done properly, works quite well, so long as you enjoy the task..”</em></p>
<p>This section is indeed a textbook exposition of the how’s, why’s, and wherefores of sprinkler irrigation systems. Sources for professional grade sprinkler equipment, its use, and modification are also thoroughly presented along with a few simple, non-professional grade choices.  Always included with each presentation are direct or indirect references to equipment costs. The “good stuff ” will cost you and by implication, so will its maintenance.</p>
<p>The very last section discusses “Drip systems and micro irrigation”. Immediately, the author states, “I do not recommend drip systems for the home garden.” and notes a little further along, “ … You must carefully inspect the entire system each and every time you turn it on.”  ’Nuff’ said.</p>
<p>Chapter 6 is a great chapter for helping to understand water’s vital part in plant growth, function and development. It’s an important reference source too, for a clear understanding of how various types of irrigation methods can help to bring this vital component to the plant.</p>
<p>Until next time: keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.</p>
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		<title>The Shortages Of Garden Seeds</title>
		<link>http://www.prudenthome.com/2010/02/the-shortages-of-garden-seeds/</link>
		<comments>http://www.prudenthome.com/2010/02/the-shortages-of-garden-seeds/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Feb 2010 20:59:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>J.P. Redoubt</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Food Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gardening]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather Report]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[food]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[food production]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[food storage]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[garden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[seeds]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.prudenthome.com/?p=1613</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[“Seed shortages could imperil home gardens” is the title of the post from AP presented, via 2/3/10’s survivalblog.com, on msnbc. msn.com. This is the second significant post on possible home garden seed shortages we’ve seen in the last ten days. We’re somewhat concerned and here’s some of the “Why” presented in the article: “I suspect [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>“<a title="Seed shortages could imperil home gardens" href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35184731/ns/business-consumer_news/" target="_blank">Seed shortages could imperil home gardens</a>” is the title of the post from AP presented, via 2/3/10’s <a title="survivalblog.com" href="http://survivalblog.com" target="_blank">survivalblog.com</a>, on msnbc. msn.com. This is the second significant post on possible home garden seed shortages we’ve seen in the last ten days. We’re somewhat concerned and here’s some of the “Why” presented in the article:</p>
<ul>
<li><em>“I suspect there will be some seeds you just won’t be able to buy  if you wait (to order your garden seeds) too long on it,” said Bill Hart, the wholesale manager in charge of seed purchasing at Chas. C. Hart Seed Company in Wethersfield, Conn.</em></li>
<li><em>“The problem is primarily due to soggy weather last year that resulted in a disappointing seed crop. European seed growers also had a bad year, leading to a big increase in orders for American seeds.&#8221; (Please note  that this means that American home gardeners are competing with their European counterparts for available garden seed during difficult economic times both in the US and the EU/PH) Demand for seeds in the U.S. soared last year, as the  poor economy and worries about chemical use and bacteria contamination prompted many people to establish gardens.</em>”</li>
<li> “<em>Kathy Gocke of Bondurant, Iowa said she orders early for herself and her county’s master gardener’s program and advises others to do the same.</em>”</li>
<li> “<em>Burpee Seeds in Warminster, Pa., bills itself as the largest provider of home garden seeds, and Chief Executive Officer George Ball said the company’s huge reserves mean it will have plenty of seeds. But Ball said he understands why others might have limited supplies after a big spike in demand in the past two years.</em></li>
<li><em> “It was unlike anything I’ve seen in the past 30 years,” he said.</em></li>
</ul>
<blockquote><p><strong>PH Comment: </strong>What if Mr. Ball’s estimate -“plenty”- of his company’s “huge reserves” of seed  are wrong and/or demand from Europe and the US far exceed his expectations? What about next year? Have you noticed the weather in the US this year?</p></blockquote>
<ul>
<li><em>“ Barbara Melera, owner of D. Landreth Seeds of New freedom, Pa., expects carrot seeds to be especially hard to find because of big orders from Europe, which had a poor crop last year. Also, fewer farmers are opting to grow seeds, she said. Many now have switched to growing corn for the biofuels industry.</em> “In this country farmers who grow things for seed are becoming an endangered species,” Melera siad. “The farmers producing things for seeds is reduced significantly, and in the past two or three years they can get more money for growing corn for ethanol plants than carrots for seeds.”</li>
</ul>
<p>At the end of a review and commentary on Chapter 4 of Steve Solomon’s book “<a title="Gardening when it counts-Growing Food In Hard Times" href="http://www.prudenthome.com/2010/01/book-review-%E2%80%9Cgardening-when-it-counts-growing-food-in-hard-times%E2%80%9D/" target="_self">Gardening when it counts &#8211; Growing Food In Hard Times</a>” a short time ago, we recommended that the home/family gardener obtain their seeds from a regional seedsman or one with a climate similar to their own. Please let us amend that recommendation now to: buy seeds for your garden from any reliable seedsman &#8211; again with emphasis on those varieties that do well in your area (If you have any questions, check with your county ’Ag’ agent of state university), buy enough for two full gardens MINIMUM, and buy them NOW.<br />
We plan a review with commentary on Chapter 5 &#8211;  Seeds, of Mr. Solomon’s book next week. Please stay tuned.<br />
Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.<br />
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		<title>Three Snapshots of America</title>
		<link>http://www.prudenthome.com/2010/01/three-snapshots-of-america/</link>
		<comments>http://www.prudenthome.com/2010/01/three-snapshots-of-america/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Jan 2010 01:37:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>J.P. Redoubt</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Current Events]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather Report]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[America]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Charles Hugh Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Howard Kunstler]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Folkerth]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.prudenthome.com/?p=1503</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Three Snapshots of America by Three of Her Best “Cameramen” The holidays are a thought provoking time it seems. In spite of the rush of faith, family and friends we are apt to take a moment here and there to ponder our current condition here in the USA. While we were doing just that here [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Three Snapshots of America by Three of Her Best “Cameramen”</p>
<p>The holidays are a thought provoking time it seems. In spite of the rush of faith, family and friends we are apt to take a moment here and there to ponder our current condition here in the USA. While we were doing just that here at <a title="prudenthome.com" href="http://www.prudenthome.com" target="_blank">PrudentHome</a>, we ran across these three “takes” giving us a quick look at the bigger context of our family preparations. Here then is the first:<br />
From the “<a title="Blue Christmas" href="http://kunstler.com/blog/2009/12/blue-christmas.html" target="_blank">Blue Christmas</a>” post  of <strong>Howard Kunstler</strong> (<a title="kunstler.com/blog" href="http://kunstler.com/blog" target="_blank">kunstler.com/blog</a>) on 12/21/09 this small picture:</p>
<p><em>“The infatuation with technology, and the disgusting cockiness that goes with it (so well captured in “Avatar”), is but one facet of the psychosis gripping the nation &#8212; and by that I mean the profound detachment from reality. We have no idea what is happening to us and, naturally, no idea of what we’re going to do. I sat in a bar Friday evening with a financial reporter from a national newspaper, trying to explain the peak oil situation and what it implied for our economy. He had never heard it before. The relationship between energy resources and massive debt was new to him. (It also came up in conversation that he could not tell me what the Monroe Doctrine was about despite a history degree from Yale.) There you have a nice snapshot of the mainstream media in this land.”</em></p>
<p>The second, from <strong>Charles Hugh Smith</strong> at his Of Two Minds blog (<a title="oftwominds.com" href="http://oftwominds.com" target="_blank">oftwominds.com</a>) this past 12/22/09 and his post  “<a title="Symbolic Economies: U.S. and China " href="http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2009/12/symbolic-economies-us-and-china.html" target="_blank">Symbolic Economies: U.S. and China</a>”:</p>
<p><em>“In the U.S., unprecedented Federal borrowing and bailouts have created a symbolic economy of the stock market rally and bogus “recovery” statistics. Even as measurements of the real economy show structural devolution (tax receipts continue to plummet, incomes and hours worked remain at Depression levels, jobs are still being lost, etc.), the stock market’s 70% rise is in effect the symbolic evidence that the “economy is recovering.” Behind this facade, the real economy lies in ruins.<br />
</em></p>
<p><em>How can GDP be growing at a robust 3.5% clip (oops, already adjusted down to 2.7%) while employment and tax receipts are both falling? The answer: statistics are ginned up to support the symbolic economy of recovery, rising corporate earnings and a “new Bull Market” in stocks.”</em></p>
<p>The third is from Mike Folkerth &#8211; King of Simple (<a title="mikefolkerth.com" href="http://mikefolkerth.com" target="_blank">mikefolkerth.com</a>) and his 12/21/09  post entitled “<a title="Auto Manufacturing; The Second Wave of Failure" href="http://mikefolkerth.com/2009/12/21/auto-manufacturing-the-second-wave-of-failure/" target="_blank">Auto Manufacturing; The Second Wave of Failure</a>:” Here’s a peek:<br />
“<em>I’m off to get my truck rescued from the repair shop this morning. The computer went haywire and a new one is only $1300, not including labor (I found a new one on e-bay for $200). A $20 gasket in the front of my engine (Cummins diesel) was also leaking, but the labor to replace it requires removing the front of the truck and pulling the camshaft out of the engine in order to get to the gasket. Total cost is around $700 bucks (you can’t buy labor on e-bay).”<br />
-“My mechanic noted that with the complexity of the engines and the difficulty of working on these modern trucks, that the entire hood should tilt forward for access to the engine and the electronic components, just exactly as they do on semi trucks. But then, that wouldn’t be all that stylish and pretty. Nope, that won’t do at all; style must trump function.”<br />
&#8220;Regardless of how loony our society becomes, we all have to live here. … We may be forced to listen to the music, but we don’t have to dance to their tune.<br />
Make the shift, live simple, live free, and live well.”</em></p>
<p>Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers moving fast.</p>
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		<title>America Without a Middle class</title>
		<link>http://www.prudenthome.com/2010/01/america-without-a-middle-class/</link>
		<comments>http://www.prudenthome.com/2010/01/america-without-a-middle-class/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Jan 2010 20:23:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>J.P. Redoubt</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Weather Report]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dollar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elizabeth Warren]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pop Smith]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.prudenthome.com/?p=1501</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[And Conversations With ‘Pop’ Smith The Economy - “America Without a Middle Class”: A few posts ago, PH posted clips from the Financial Times posting, “We must get ready for a weak-dollar world” and Charles Hugh Smith’s post/view on “The Grand Failure of Government to Limit Concentration of Power”. Today we’re posting excerpts from the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>And Conversations With ‘Pop’ Smith</p>
<p><strong>The Economy -</strong> <strong>“America Without a Middle Class”:</strong> A few posts ago, PH posted clips from the Financial Times posting, “<a title="http://www.ft.com/" href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d7c5b756-dd14-11de-ad60-00144feabdc0.html" target="_blank">We must get ready for a weak-dollar world</a>” and Charles Hugh Smith’s post/view on “The Grand Failure of Government to Limit Concentration of Power”.</p>
<div id="attachment_1516" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/aka_kath/3085606155/sizes/m/"><img class="size-medium wp-image-1516" title="The vanishing middle class" src="http://www.prudenthome.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/3085606155_571a9ee55c-300x225.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="225" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Photo credit: aka_Kath</p></div>
<p>Today we’re posting excerpts from the excellent Elizabeth Warren (“Chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel created to oversee the banking bailouts“) article of December 4, 2009 in The Huffington Post (<a title="huffingtonpost.com" href="http://huffingtonpost.com" target="_blank">huffingtonpost.com</a>), “<a title="America Without a Middle Class" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/elizabeth-warren/america-without-a-middle_b_377829.html">America Without a Middle Class</a>” , to illustrate some of the results of a weak dollar combined with a concentration of power in our government. Here are those excerpts:</p>
<ul>
<li> “<em>Today, one in five Americans is unemployed, underemployed or just plain out of work. One in nine families can’t make the minimum payment on their credit cards. One in eight mortgages is in default or foreclosure. One in eight Americans is on food stamps. More than 120,000 families are filing for bankruptcy every month. The economic crisis has wiped more than $5 trillion from pensions and savings, has left family balance sheets upside down, and threatens to put ten million homeowners out on the street. Families have survived the ups and downs of economic booms and busts for a long time, but the fall-behind during the busts has gotten worse while the surge-ahead during the booms has stalled out</em>. … ”</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li> “<em>The crisis facing the middle class started more than a generation ago. Even as productivity rose, the wages of the average fully-employed male have been flat since the 1970’s</em>.”</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li> “<em>Through it all, families never asked for a handout from anyone, especially Washington. They were left to go on their own, working harder, squeezing nickels, and taking of themselves.</em>”</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li> “<em>The contrast with the big banks could not be sharper. While the middle class has been caught in an economic vise, the financial industry that was supposed to serve them prospered at their expense. Consumer banking &#8212; selling debt to middle class families &#8212; has been a gold mine</em>.”</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li> “<em>And when various forms of this creative banking triggered economic crisis, the banks went to Washington for a handout. All the while, top executives kept their jobs and retained their bonuses</em>.”</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li> “<em>Pundits talk about “populist rage” as a way to trivialize the anger and fear coursing through the middle class. But they have it wrong. Families understand with crystalline clarity that the rules they have played by are not the same rules that govern wall street.</em>”</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Conversations With ’Pop’ Smith</strong>:</p>
<p><strong>PH Question</strong>:“ ‘Pop’, we were a part of a conversation on family preparedness this week and someone reminded us to check and make sure our “two’s and three’s” were in place. What are the “two’s and three’s”?<br />
<strong>‘Pop’</strong>: The “two’s and three’s”, as far as I know, are a local expression referring to the back-ups a lot folks in the our preparedness community have for their important/critical preparedness items. Some examples: for most of us, two pair of glasses would fall within the “two’s” while the ways and means to make a fire contained in our Get Home or G.O.O.D. bags might fall within the “three’s &#8211; say, a magnifying glass, waterproof matches and magnesium block with a flint-type rod.</p>
<p>Also, the twos and threes can, and will, vary. Someone with very bad eyesight might want three pair of glasses as a back-up, another person with a large amount of stored food in cans might feel comfortable with only two can-openers. It’s a personal judgment call.</p>
<p>Until next time, keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.</p>
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		<title>Forecast: Here’s Some Of What The Weather Will Look Like In 2010</title>
		<link>http://www.prudenthome.com/2010/01/forecast-here%e2%80%99s-some-of-what-the-weather-will-look-like-in-2010/</link>
		<comments>http://www.prudenthome.com/2010/01/forecast-here%e2%80%99s-some-of-what-the-weather-will-look-like-in-2010/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Jan 2010 05:17:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>J.P. Redoubt</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Geo-Political]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Threats]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather Report]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2010]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bankruptcy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Black Swan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[civil unrest]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dollar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[forecasts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Israel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strait of Hormuz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Terrorism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[unemployment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wages]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[1. Higher Consumer Prices: Especially for commodities such as food, but also for services, taxes fees, etc., at every level in both the public and private sectors. 2. Static to Lower Wages/Incomes: Regardless of “overall” economic models that may show increases in incomes, employment, etc., the average American will have less money to deal with [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong> 1. Higher Consumer Prices:</strong> Especially for commodities such as food, but also for services, taxes fees, etc., at every level in both the public and private sectors.</p>
<div id="attachment_1518" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/kacey/276164824/sizes/m/"><img class="size-medium wp-image-1518" title="Weather Report - Prudenthome.com" src="http://www.prudenthome.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/weather-300x229.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="229" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Photo credit: KaCey97007</p></div>
<p><strong>2.</strong> <strong>Static to Lower Wages/Incomes:</strong> Regardless of “overall” economic models that may show increases in incomes, employment, etc., the average American will have less money to deal with the expenses of family; both necessary and elective. A quick look at Social Security payments will provide an example here.</p>
<p><strong>3.</strong> <strong>A Generally Weaker &amp; Weakening Dollar:</strong> This will be due primarily to increasing levels of federal debt and the fact that this debt is being met with borrowed and newly printed money. These responses will push up prices, especially imports, and thereby contribute heavily to #1. Pay particular attention for a continuing erosion of the U.S. dollar (for our debt policy stated above) as the world’s reserve currency. More countries will begin doing business between themselves through the exchange of their respective currencies and/or barter. More countries will ask for payments in currencies other than the U. S. dollar (such as the Euro) and/or call for a “market basket” of currencies or an internationally recognized unit of value. Also watch for countries reducing the U.S. dollar as a portion of their reserves.</p>
<p><strong>4.</strong> <strong>A Lower Standard of Living for The Average American Family:</strong> This will be a result if #’s 1-3 and a<br />
continuing weak economy with weak employment (U6) stretching far into the future. Look to the real employment numbers (and other important statistics) from sources like John Williams’ <a title="shadowstats.com" href="http://shadowstats.com" target="_blank">shadowstats.com</a> NOT the federal government.</p>
<p><strong>5. Increased Civil Unrest Over That Of 2009:</strong> It might be due to higher food prices, higher taxes/fees,  jobless benefit cuts (the states are running out unemployment money) or some government policy or another but the increasing level of citizen dissatisfaction with current conditions almost assures an increase in  civil unrest (and a government response) to further significant disruption in American’s day-to-day lives.</p>
<p><strong>6.</strong> <strong>Increased Terrorist Activity In The U.S. &amp; The World:</strong> Terrorism appears to be expanding all around the world. It’s message is resonating and captivating not just among the poor but with the affluent young also. Whether in Yemen or London, more are being influenced to support and/or  join this movement. The result of terrorists recruiting successes will nearly guarantee more terrorist activity and attacks in the U.S. and around the world. The individual that called this “The Long War” was spot on!<strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong>7.</strong> <strong> A “Black Swan” Event:</strong> (“the existence &amp; occurence of high-impact, hard to predict and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectation”) Here are three possibilities with any of the three providing major repercussions (especially #1):<br />
<strong> </strong></p>
<ul>
<li>War between Israel and Iran resulting in a closing of the Strait of Hormuz (at least)</li>
<li> and a dramatic reduction in oil availability for the industrialized world (at least).</li>
<li>The failure/disintegration of a major nation such as Mexico or Pakistan.</li>
<li>Bankruptcy of a major nation such as Greece, the Baltic’s, or one from Eastern Europe.</li>
</ul>
<p>Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.</p>
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		<title>The Dollar’s Decline, Geo-Politics, and U.S. Government Failure</title>
		<link>http://www.prudenthome.com/2009/12/the-dollar%e2%80%99s-decline-geo-politics-and-u-s-government-failure/</link>
		<comments>http://www.prudenthome.com/2009/12/the-dollar%e2%80%99s-decline-geo-politics-and-u-s-government-failure/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Dec 2009 07:30:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>J.P. Redoubt</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Employment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geo-Political]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather Report]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[budget deficit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dollar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. economy]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The Dollar’s Decline, Geo-Politics, and U.S. Government Failure. The Dollars Decline: Today’s post headline comes to us from the Financial Times (ft.com) of 11/29/09  via survivable.com of 12/01/09. The article is by Jeffrey Garten and is entitled “We must get ready for a weak-dollar world”. Here’s a portion of this important piece: “The roots of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Dollar’s Decline, Geo-Politics, and U.S. Government Failure.</p>
<p><strong>The Dollars Decline:</strong> Today’s post headline comes to us from the Financial Times (<a title="ft.com" href="http://ft.com" target="_blank">ft.com</a>) of 11/29/09  via <a title="survivable.com" href="http://survivable.com" target="_blank">survivable.com</a> of 12/01/09. The article is by Jeffrey Garten and is entitled “<a title="We must get ready for the weak dollar" href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d7c5b756-dd14-11de-ad60-00144feabdc0.html" target="_blank">We must get ready for a weak-dollar world</a>”.</p>
<div id="attachment_1492" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 250px"><img class="size-full wp-image-1492" title="US Dollar" src="http://www.prudenthome.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/dollar.jpg" alt="Photo Credit: SqueakyMarmot" width="240" height="193" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Photo Credit: SqueakyMarmot</p></div>
<p>Here’s a portion of this important piece:</p>
<ul>
<li>“The roots of this situation are well known. The American budget deficit of this past fiscal year reached 10 per cent of gross domestic product, the largest since the aftermath of the second world war. Meanwhile, the net external debt of the US nearly tripled last year. To $3,500bn and it is projected to increase by nearly $1,000bn every year for the next decade. All this underestimates the problems of a country where unfunded liabilities for baby boomer entitlements are in the stratosphere, infrastructure deterioration is scandalous and many large states are out of money. To close the gaps. Taxes would have to be raised to sky-high levels and spending brutally slashed. It would take a miracle if America’s political system &#8211; one rife with vicious partisanship and riddled with well-financed special interests &#8211; could do either, let alone both.</li>
<li>Washington will therefore have little choice but to take the time-honored course for big-time debtors: print more dollars, devalue the currency and service debt in ever cheaper greenbacks. In other words, the US will have to camouflage a slow-motion default because politically it is the easiest way out.”</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>U.S. Government Failure:</strong> To hand-in-glove the above piece, this observation from yesterday’s Of Two Minds blog (<a title="oftwominds.com" href="http://oftwominds.com" target="_blank">oftwominds.com</a>) post by Charles Hugh Smith entitled “<a title="The Grand Failure of Government to Limit Concentration of Power" href="http://www.oftwominds.com/blognov09/balance-of-powers11-09.html" target="_blank">The Grand Failure of Government to Limit Concentration of Power</a>”:</p>
<ul>
<li>“This, then, is the grand failure of government: due to the concentration of power accumulated by those with asymmetric stakes in the game, any attempt to limit a concentration of power is thwarted by status quo. All the issues which so worried Madison in “The Federalist Papers” have come to full flower: the power of the State has been legally channeled into Elites which have nothing to fear from any branch of the State because they are the State.”</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>PH Comment: </strong>So here we are. <em>“We The People” are on our own.</em> No one is coming to rescue us and the boats have all been taken or burned. We build from here.</p>
<p>Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.</p>
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		<title>Ten Good Reasons To Grow Your Own</title>
		<link>http://www.prudenthome.com/2009/11/ten-good-reasons-to-grow-your-own/</link>
		<comments>http://www.prudenthome.com/2009/11/ten-good-reasons-to-grow-your-own/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Nov 2009 05:16:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>J.P. Redoubt</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Weather Report]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[agriculture]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bountiful Gardens]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[food production]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[food storage]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gardening]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hunger]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Jevons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prudent family]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Solomon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[world population]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.prudenthome.com/?p=1444</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[“Ten Good Reasons To Grow Your Own” (11): We were doing a little “relaxing” reading last week in one of our booklets from Bountiful Gardens entitled “Backyard Garden &#8216;Research&#8217; For Food &#38; Flavor” by John Jevons &#38; Bill Bruneau. In this booklet was a section called “Ten Good Reasons To Grow Your Own” (there are [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>“Ten Good Reasons To Grow Your Own” (11):</strong> We were doing a little “relaxing” reading last week in one of our booklets from <a title="bountifulgardens.org/" href="http://www.bountifulgardens.org/" target="_blank">Bountiful Gardens</a> entitled “<a title="bountifulgardens.org" href="http://www.bountifulgardens.org" target="_blank">Backyard Garden &#8216;Research&#8217; For Food &amp; Flavor</a>” by John Jevons &amp; Bill Bruneau.</p>
<p>In this booklet was a section called “<em>Ten Good Reasons To Grow Your Own</em>” (there are actually 11 good reasons in this small section) . If the reasons sound good to you then go to <a title="bountifulgardens.org" href="http://bountifulgardens.org" target="_blank">bountifulgardens.org</a>, click on the Ecology Action Research Papers section and look for <a title="BEA-0017" href="http://www.bountifulgardens.org/" target="_blank">BEA &#8211; 0017.</a> We keep two copies as they’re valuable and inexpensive.</p>
<p>Anyway, they seemed to fit in well with our book review subject matter and here we are with “<em>Ten Good Reasons To Grow Your Own</em>“ (11):</p>
<p><strong>#1. Fresher Food</strong> &#8211; - … “dinner at your doorstep.”</p>
<p><strong>#2. Better Flavor</strong> &#8211; - “Produce in the market is bred for toughness and storability. You can choose varieties for flavor and harvest them at their peak.”</p>
<p><strong>#3. No Pesticide Residues</strong> &#8211; - “You can control how your food is grown.”</p>
<p><strong>#4. Money</strong> &#8211; - “A 50 square-foot garden can produce 75-150+ pounds of vegetables in 5-15 minutes a day. Your time saves money while you grow better food.”</p>
<p><strong>#5. Reduce Air Pollution</strong> &#8211; -”Save trips to the grocery and reduce the amount of food that is trucked across country and shipped across oceans.”</p>
<p><strong>#6. Reduce Garbage</strong> &#8211; - “Eliminate the wasted cans, bottles, boxes, and plastic bags that package our food. Compost your vegetable waste.”</p>
<p><strong>#7. SAVE WATER (caps/PH)</strong> &#8211; - “80% of our water nationwide is used to produce food, and water is fast becoming a critical resource with underground reserves being depleted in many agricultural areas. Biointensive techniques use 1/3 to 1/16 the water per pound of food grown.”</p>
<blockquote><p><strong>PrudentHome Comment:</strong> This is the kind of information we had in mind during our beginning review of Steve Solomon’s book, &#8220;<a title="Gardening When it Counts" href="http://www.prudenthome.com/2009/10/%E2%80%9Cgardening-when-it-counts-growing-food-in-hard-times%E2%80%9D/">Gardening when it counts</a>&#8220;, when we said that Mr. Solomon’s view that biointensive gardening used more water than some of the other techniques he proposed was open to question.</p></blockquote>
<p><strong>#8. Renew The Soil</strong> &#8211; - “Most agricultural systems eventually deplete the soil. Tests by a University  of California soil science graduate student show that the biodynamic/French Intensive method may be one of the few approaches that actually build the soil over time. It also has the great potential for eventually helping reclaim decertified areas.”</p>
<p><strong>#9. Create A Multiple-Use Homestead</strong> &#8211; - “Fruit &#8211; and nut- producing trees can shade your house, block cold winds, and provide wood and food.”</p>
<p><strong>#10. Exercise</strong> &#8211; - plus the satisfaction of working with fresh air, soil, water, and living plants … .”</p>
<p><strong>BONUS: #11. More Nutritious Food</strong> &#8211; - “Fresh-picked produce is higher in vitamins and adds more color, flavor, and texture to meals. Also, children love vegetables when they help grow them.”</p>
<p><strong>FOOD SECURITY:</strong> From <a title="prudenthome.com" href="http://www.prudenthome.com" target="_self">PrudentHome</a> please add this vital reason to grow your own food.</p>
<p>A quick look at our world food situation should give support here:</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>More than 1 billion people now suffering from hunger</strong> in the face of a world population increasing at the rate of a Great   Britain per year,</li>
<li><strong>Climate chang</strong>e producing food-killing droughts, cyclones/hurricanes, etc.,</li>
<li><strong>Peak Oil</strong> &#8211; With about 90% of the worlds food  produced via fossil fuels, then when oil production declines -  food production declines.,</li>
<li><strong>Decreasing farm land availability</strong> &#8211; Major countries like China and India are buying farmland outside of their own countries to insure food security for their populations.,</li>
<li><strong>Fresh water stocks diminishing</strong>, reducing agricultural production., and finally</li>
<li><strong>World Food/Grain reserves are now low</strong> and there is a tendency to deplete reserves even more for both market ($) and humanitarian needs.</li>
</ol>
<p>For family food security, <em>the prudent family must stock food reserves</em> and be able to produce additional food for itself.</p>
<p>Until a little later; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers moving fast.</p>
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		<title>Beginning Veteran’s Day Week With …</title>
		<link>http://www.prudenthome.com/2009/11/beginning-veteran%e2%80%99s-day-week-with-%e2%80%a6/</link>
		<comments>http://www.prudenthome.com/2009/11/beginning-veteran%e2%80%99s-day-week-with-%e2%80%a6/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:42:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>J.P. Redoubt</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Geo-Political]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather Report]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.prudenthome.com/?p=1440</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The week began with the usual stories about unemployment,  government mismanagement, and Afghanistan but then comes James Howard Kunstler’s weekly comment on current events (kunstler.com/blog): insightful and predictive in “Dreams Die Hard” (11/9/09). Here’s just a bit of that post that’s well worth your time to read (as are all his weekly/Monday posts and his [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The week began with the usual stories about unemployment,  government mismanagement, and Afghanistan but then comes James Howard Kunstler’s weekly comment on current events (<a title="kunstler.com/blog" href="http://kunstler.com/blog" target="_blank">kunstler.com/blog</a>): insightful and predictive in “Dreams Die Hard” (11/9/09).</p>
<p>Here’s just a bit of that post that’s well worth your time to read (as are all his weekly/Monday posts and his excellent book “The Long Emergency”):</p>
<ul>
<li><em>“Within the context of conventional party politics &#8211; the kind that has been baseline “normal” in the USA for a long time &#8211; we see this playing out in two factions that are increasingly out-of- touch  with reality. The Obama government has made itself hostage to a toxic form of pretense and lying. In order to sustain the wish for ’hope” &#8211; if not hope itself &#8211; the President and his White advisors along with his cabinet appointments, are pretending that the historical forces of compressive contraction are not underway. They’re flat out lying about the employment figures issued in the government’s name. They’re willfully ignoring the comprehensive bankruptcy gripping government at all levels. They refuse to bring the law to bear against “the malefactors of great wealth.” They appear to not understand the epochal energy scarcity problem the whole world faces, or its implications for industrial economies. Most of all, they persist in promoting the lie that this economy can return to the prior state of reckless debt accumulation (a.k.a. “consumerism”) that has made us so ridiculous and unhealthy.</em></li>
<li><em>“The Republican right wing is, if anything, even more childishly delusional. For Glen Beck and Sarah Palin it comes down to “drill, baby, drill”.</em></li>
<li><em> “In the meantime, American life will just wind down, no matter what we believe.”</em></li>
</ul>
<p>Until a next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.</p>
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		<title>Recession Over?</title>
		<link>http://www.prudenthome.com/2009/11/recession-over/</link>
		<comments>http://www.prudenthome.com/2009/11/recession-over/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 12:04:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>J.P. Redoubt</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Weather Report]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[job growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[unemployment]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[PrudentHome Observation: It’s our understanding that the U.S. and Israel will complete their largest  joint military exercise in history this next week, 11/3/09. It is was geared we’ve read, toward long range missile defense: the kind of missiles one might expect to come from Iran. The Economy &#8211; Recession Over?: “Recession declared over” is the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>PrudentHome Observation: </strong>It’s our understanding that the U.S. and Israel will complete their largest  joint military exercise in history this next week, 11/3/09. It is was geared we’ve read, toward long range missile defense: the kind of missiles one might expect to come from Iran.</p>
<p>The Economy &#8211; Recession Over?: “Recession declared over” is the title of the 10/27/09,Tom Raum post  at <a title="beitbart.com" href="http://beitbart.com" target="_blank">beitbart.com</a> (via <a title="lifeaftertheoilcrash.net" href="http://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net" target="_blank">lifeaftertheoilcrash.net</a> on 10/28/09). Please note these interesting portions of the article:</p>
<ul>
<li> “The government will release figures this week expected to show that the economy has awakened from the deepest slump since the 1930’s and is in the early stages of a recovery. But the following week, the government will issue another set of figures expected to show unemployment continuing to rise toward and possibly above a clearly recessionary 10 percent.”</li>
<li> “Many companies let inventories run down so much that when they ran out, orders picked up. Home resales ticked up as buyers scrambled to complete their purchases before the tax credit for first-time owners expires, And U.S. exporters have benefited from a relentless decline of the dollar that has made U.S. goods cheaper and more competitive overseas.</li>
</ul>
<p>But none of this adds up to a sustainable upswing.</p>
<ul>
<li>“Absent robust job growth, it is not a true economic recovery,” said White House economic adviser Jared Bernstein.”</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Food &#8211; Future Costs Up: </strong>“<a title="Food will never be this cheap again" href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6432538/Food-will-never-be-so-cheap-again.html" target="_blank">Food will never be so cheap again</a>” says the title of Ambrose Evans-   Pritchard’s piece of 10/25/09 at the <a title="telegraph.co.uk" href="http://telegraph.co.uk" target="_blank">telegraph.co.uk</a>/10-28-09 (via survivalblog.com on 10/28/09). Here’s some of the “why”:</p>
<ul>
<li>“Biofuel refineries in the US have set fresh records for grain use every month since may. Almost a third of the US corn harvest will be diverted into ethanol for motors this year, or 12pc of the global crop.</li>
<li>The worlds grain stocks have dropped from four to 2.6 months cover since 2000, despite two bumper harvests in North America. China’s inventories are at a 30-year low. Asian rice stocks are near danger level.”</li>
<li>“The world population is adding “another Britain” every year. This will continue until mid-century. By then we will have an extra 2.4bn mouths to feed.”</li>
<li>“A report by Standard Chartered, “The End of Cheap Food” (quotation marks/PH), said North Africa and the Middle East have already hit the buffers. The region imports 71pc of its rice and 58pc of its corn, It lacks water to boost output. The population is growing fast. It will have to import, and cross fingers.”</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Conversations With ‘Pop’ Smith: </strong>PH Question &#8211; ‘Pop’, any thoughts on preparations for specific events like catastrophic weather (hurricanes, etc.), terrorist attacks, or maybe oil embargo ?</p>
<p>‘Pop’ Smith: First, let me just say that your best preparation is a strong general level of preparedness. Being able to provide for you and yours, and maybe a few others, the basics in water, food, shelter, medical care and security for a time. It’s a base to build on, or adjust on, to specific circumstances.</p>
<p><strong>Two or three things come mind here in addition: </strong>First, if you know ahead of time that a hurricane, flood or world class snow fall/winter is approaching then you have time to do things like add extra water or food or fuel for your vehicles or stoves/heaters or pet food, etc.</p>
<p>Second, if the world situation appears to be breaking bad then you might do all the things just mentioned and maybe add some extra cash to your stash for a longer period of difficulty and maybe get your doctor to write some extra Rx’s for any critically necessary medicines a family member might need. Third, preparedness is a process toward greater independence and sustainability during hard times. You have to keep the process in motion and direction in times where resources are readily available so that when the hard times do arrive, you’ll be as ready as you can be.</p>
<p>Figure you’ll never be perfectly prepared but you can/will be prepared enough to adjust, function and get through/on.</p>
<p>Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.</p>
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