• “As the global and U.S. economies emerge from the downturn, economists predict that there is going to be some sticker shock at the checkout line. Food prices, they say, are heading higher and when you combine that with an unemployment rate that’s expected to linger near a three-decade high for at least another year, it’s even more unwelcome news.”

• “The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects overall food prices to rise as much as 4 percent in the U.S. by the end of 2010. Yet, some economists think they will climb by as much as 5 percent.”
• “The end result? Consumers should keep an eye on oil prices, which not only impact what they pay at the pump but also what they pay at the checkout counter.”

PH Comment: In the first quarter of this year PrudentHome made five predictions for 2009. Three of them were: 1.Expect higher oil prices by years end., 2. Expect higher food prices before next year. and 3. Average Americans will experience a lower standard of living this year. All of those things have and are coming to pass and we expect the same for 2010. Prepare.

Conversations with ’Pop’ Smith:

PH Question: “ ‘Pop’, one of the most prevalent lines of thought today  is in regards to  folks responding to some sudden/catastrophic event by throwing prep gear into their vehicle and making a run for their retreat. Any thoughts?

‘Pop’ Smith: “First, a place to go that’s out of the mainstream and self-sustaining if things get really bad in the country is  really ideal. That said, getting to that place/retreat if things suddenly, or even gradually, get really bad is highly problematic. If the retreat is close, say within a tank of gas, and you leave early enough then things should work out pretty well. But if your having to wait until the “balloon goes up” before you strike out then you have some really bad potential problems.

First, do a quick review in you mind regarding the travel conditions that existed during nearly any of the last decades major hurricanes remembering that travel then was essentially unopposed by state of federal governments (time here to review two of the last presidential directives/orders signed by President Geo. W. Bush in about his last year in office and note that these give the president nearly absolute power over the entire country in a national emergency that he would unilaterally define and declare. What if he decided to restrict all interstate transportation immediately upon declaration of an emergency? Think not, then refer back to what happened to all U.S. air travel right after 9/11.)

Second, consider this: when you leave your place, for a short or long run after an event, you immediately become a refugee for the time you’re in transit. That’s the bottom line. Leave early.”

Until next time, keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers moving fast.

We’re going to do something a little different here at PrudentHome, as regards more traditional book reviews; we’re going to do a running book review and commentary. Each mid-week post over about a two month period of time (we plan on building in a couple of “open’ weeks within this time frame in order to allow for information that may be of urgent interest) we’ll present our continuing review with commentary.

Here’s why, because Mr. Solomon’s gardening book is one that deserves our special attention as it’s written especially for our times (and beyond?): hard times.

Here’s the beginning: Introduction -

“These days I feel fortunate to have retired to one of the world’s most remote places, Tasmania, a temperate south pacific island with a climate that is a lot like Oregon’s. From here I can enjoy a slight sense of detachment as I watch how the planet is going. But Tasmania is not self sufficient, so I am not nearly as detached as I wish I could be  about the hard times I foresee coming. I have the feeling that I should share some gardening knowledge I’ve accumulated with those who are probably soon going to need it, which is why I wrote this book.”

Here’s some of Mr. Solomon’s history, perspective and viewpoint:

• “I had a five-acre (two-hectare) homestead …”
• “In 1979 I created Territorial Seed company, …
• “During the 1980’s, when intensive (gardening) had become the standard practice, several things came together to teach me it was not the best way. Because I was running a seed company, I had to do a variety of trials. … Trials require that you grow plants far enough apart that each can develop to its full potential. One thing I noticed from doing this was that my trial plots didn’t need nearly as much irrigation as my intensive veggie garden. Another was that these well-separated plants got much larger; they tasted better than crowded vegetables did when they weren’t harvested promptly; and many vegetable species grown that way yielded more in relation to the space occupied, not less as I had read in books by intensive gurus.”
• “… I researched the nearly lost art of vegetable gardening without irrigating at all, which is mainly done by putting plants extremely far apart.”
• “These days I no longer raise my vegetables using the extreme intensive method that is still advocated by Everybody Else. And I irrigate much less than most people. If I did not have irrigation, I could still grow my garden. I believe I’ve worked out methods that best suit the coming hard times.”

PH Commentary: Please note here that Mr. Solomon has five acres of land on which to  plant his garden, he speaks very much from the viewpoint of a professional seedsman who has become disenchanted with the method (intensive gardening) used by “Everybody Else”  for some specific reasons: irrigation, harvesting-timing concerns and eventual yields, to name three..

High water use in intensive gardening is a very controversial conclusion as we understand it.

Until next time, keep your eyes on the horizon as the weather’s changing fast.

The Economy-Dire Projections: This comes from an 8/26/09 post from Capitalism Magazine by John Lewis, via SurvivalBlog (survivalblog.com) on 8/31/09, entitled “The Collapse of America? The Dire message of Mr. David Walker”.

The article is as important for who Mr. Walker is/was as for what it says and here’s some of both:

• “David Walker is the former Comptroller General of the United States and former head of the Government Accountability Office. …the nation’s chief accountant …”
• “His long-range perspective allows him to project fiscal trends decades into the future, and to assess, through simulations, the impacts of policy decisions beyond their immediate effects.”
• “When Walker plotted these trends, and considered demographics among many other factors, what he found was ‘chilling.’ If fundamental reforms are not begun now, he concluded, the United States will experience a financial and political collapse comparable to the fall of Rome.”
• “The bottom line is this: fiscal entitlements (read: Social Security, Medicare, etc./PH), projected into the future, are over 52,000 billion dollars. That will equal 90% of all household wealth in the U.S., and will place a burden of over 450 thousand dollars on every household in the land. This is almost ten times the present median household income level.”

Peak Water: TheBurningPlatform.com is the source of this post: “Peak Water”.

It is an extremely valuable article concerning the critical resource, water; how it’s being used today and how it will be used in the future. Here’s some of the post:

• “It should be obvious from simple arithmetic that population growth is on a direct collision course with increasingly scarce resources.” – Jeremy Grantham (“brilliant investment manager“)
• “Freshwater shortages in the wrong places could have calamitous consequences to those regions, worldwide commodity prices, the economic future of nations with water shortages and possible war. Regional water scarcity means water usage exceeds the annual natural replenishment from the water cycle. The impact of water scarcity can … lead to food shortages, famine, and starvation. Many nations, regions and states have mismanaged their water resources, and they will have to suffer the long-term consequences.”
• “We must prepare ourselves for waves of higher resource prices and periods of shortages unlike anything we have faced outside of wartime conditions.” – Jeremy Grantham –
• “In real life our species has such a modest ability to deal with distant outcomes or to defer gratification that a bad ending is probably inevitable. We need it seems, the shock of a Pearl Harbor to really gear up and make sacrifices.“ – Jeremy Grantham
• “A looming crisis of food shortages and skyrocketing commodity prices is inevitable. Peak water will play a significant role … .”
• Here are some of the undeniable facts;

1. Droughts in key farming areas due to climate change.
2. Soil erosion and depletion of underground aquifers.
3. ‘Worldwide population growth, with … expanding … diets.”
4. “War over resources has happened before and it will happen again.
5. … The question is who will attack who and when. IN THE MEANTIME, PLANT A VEGETABLE GARDEN (caps/ph).”

Until nest time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.