• “Despite announcements to the contrary, Russia still plans to deliver its S-300 advanced air-defense missiles to Iran, according to a senior Egyptian security official speaking to WND.
• The official said Russia also intends to see the system delivered to Syria, from which it can also be transferred to Hezbollah militia operating in Lebanon.”
• The S-300PMUI is a mobile system designed to shoot down aircraft and cruise missiles. Analysts say the S-300 system would make any Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities more difficult.”

Article #2: “Who will blink first in Iran’s nuclear poker game?” by Aluf Benn at haaretz.com this past Wednesday,3/3/10. Here are some of the articles more important observations:

• “Netanyahu (Israeli Prime Minister) managed to convince the world that Israel is on the verge of a preemptive war to try to foil Iran’s nuclear program. His speeches on a second Holocaust and Amalek, the acceleration of military preparations, the exercises on the Home Front, the distribution of gas masks and even the stockpiling of dollars by the bank of Israel all suggest that Israel is planning to strike Iran, as it did when it attacked the nuclear plants in Iraq and Syria.”
• “Netanyahu is playing poker and hiding his most important card: the Israel Defense Forces’ true capabilities to destroy Iran’s nuclear installations.”
• “Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who is functioning as a super-adviser to Netanyahu for national security affairs, said in response (to  Iran’s Ahmadinejad commenting on the destruction of Israel) that “the clock for the Iranian regime’s downfall is ticking.”
• “Israel and Iran are gambling that only one of them will survive the confrontation. Is this threat serious? History suggests it is.”

Article#3: “ Mideast war in the ‘very’ near future? — Dramatic escalation in cooperation between Israel’s foes “ by Aaron Klein at wnd.com on 3/3/10. Here’s some of what the article said:

• “…Egypt is concerned Israel could be ina a conflict in the very near future with Syria or the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, a senior Egyptian security official told WND.”
• “The official said his country is concerned about a coming conflict but did not mention a specific timeframe.”
• “Last week, Syria hosted a summit with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and Kahled Meshal, head of Hamas. All parties expressed solidarity each other and vowed the destruction of Israel.
• The meeting was followed up with another confab in Iran last weekend entitled “Islamic and National Solidarity with the Palestinian People.” The summit was attended by the leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria. All three denounced Israel.”

PH Comment: There is one overriding concern in the above information for all of the prudent homes across America: oil. Without a full supply of relatively cheap (below about $85 per barrel) oil, America at this historic and economic juncture would find it hard to maintain her economic balance. We’ve spoken about this before at PH, and will again, but be aware and strengthen your preparations in every aspect. If something like this goes down, there will be little or no warning.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weather’s changing fast.

1. What is the track record of the predictor?

2. What’s his forum: both the place he‘s speaking from and his audience?
In the Leo Lewis (Asia Business Correspondent) article in the business.timesonline.co.uk of 2/22/10 – sourced from lifeaftertheoilcrash.net – entitled “Buy farmland and gold,’ advises Dr. Doom”, we get Marc Faber. He is “…the notoriously bearish market pundit, who predicted the 1987 stock market crash…” and he’s speaking “… in Tokyo at a gathering of 700 pension and sovereign wealth fund managers.”
Here’s some of what the article and Mr. Faber had to say:

• “Speaking today, Dr. Faber said that investors, who control billions of dollars of assets, should start considering the effects of more disruptive events than market volatility. “The next war will be a dirty war,” he told fund managers. “What are you  going to do when your mobile phone gets shuts down or the internet stops working or the city water supplies get poisoned?”

• “He also said that they should consider holding part of their wealth in the form of precious metals “because they can be carried.”

• “At the heart of Dr. Faber’s argument is a fundamentally gloomy view on the U.S. economy and its capacity to service a growing mountain of debt.”

• “His belief, fund managers were told, is that the U.S. is going to go bankrupt.”

Micro: From a number of sources (i.e., drudge.com and survivable.com) earlier this week, we got information that says: “Citigroup Warns Customers It May Refuse To Allow Withdrawals”. This specific article is the one we’ll reference. It is by John Carney, posted on business insider.com on 2/19/10.
Here’s some of what it says:

• “… we heard that Citigroup was telling customers it has the right to prevent withdrawals from checking accounts for seven days.” This information was presented  “… on statements received by customers all over the country.”, and said in part: “ While we do not currently exercise this right and have not exercised it in the past, we are required by law to notify you of this change.”

• “It seems that this is something of an error. The seven day notice policy only applies to customers in Texas, Ira Stoll reports at the Future of Capitalism. It was accidentally included on customer statements nationwide.”

• “UPDATE: According to Stoll, Citi issued a statement saying that it had been required to make this change by federal regulations–and it no longer sounds like it’s limited to Texas.”
• 
  “UPDATE: Citibank has now released the following statement by way of explanation: … ,we have never exercised this right and have no plans to do so in the future.”

PH Comment: That banking institutions would have the foregoing power to prevent withdrawals at their discretion should provide the prudent home with at least a couple of considerations: have your money in at least two banking institutions to increase the chances of being able make a withdrawal from one, and have an emergency “cash stash” around the house (in at least two fireproof places and checked with a counterfeit detector pen) to enable your home to function in an emergency.

If there’s a real emergency, such as one without electricity, cash may be the only thing that works.

Until next time: keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers moving fast.

“From Jan 1, 2011, every transaction above 1500 euros between natural persons and businesses, or between businesses, will not be considered legal if it is done in cash. Transactions will have to be done through debit or credit cards.”

LATOC Comment: “Welcome to the NWO. Coming to a country near you soon.”

Until next time; Keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

MEXICO:

• “… To update the data on Mexico, its now our #2 source of imported petroleum because Saudi Arabia has fallen from #2 to #4.
• As of November 2009 (the latest data available) the U.S. imported 1.08 mbpd of crude and finished petroleum products from Mexico. Its exports to the U.S. peaked at 1.46 mbpd in 2004, the same year its production peaked. Net exports (production minus consumption) fell to 1.06 mbpd in 2008.
  For the years 2005-2008, Mexico’s exports to the U.S. declined by 0.51 barrels per day. In 2010, supply is expected to fall to 2.5 mpbd — nearly half a million barrels per day less than 2009.”
• “Consequently, Mexico’s oil reserves have decreased by more than 75% in two decades (owing partly to the correction of a previous, ridiculously inflated figure), production has begun to decline and exports are falling fast.”

VENEZUELA:

• “… As of November, the U.S. was importing 0.9 mpbd from Venezuela, making it our #3 source. Its exports to the U.S. peaked at 1.8 mpbd in 1997, the same year as its production peaked. Net exports (production minus consumption) have fallen 38% from the 1997 peak of 3.1 mpbd to 1.0 mpbd in 2008.
  Venezuela’s oil exports to the U.S. have been declining markedly since 2004, after a long period of relative stability, from 2004 through 2009, Venezuelan petroleum exports fell 0.7 mbpd.”
• “Now Chavez is turning east for help in developing his nation’s oil and gas resources. Recent agreements include a $20 billion joint venture with Russia to develop the Junin 6 field in the Orinoco oil belt, … .
  China has agreed to build a refinery and develop the Orinoco heavy oil fields, and Venezuela has guaranteed 560,000 barrels per day to China this year.
  
• “Chavez will put exports to the U.S. on a short path to zero the first chance he gets.”

PH Comment: It looks like oil availability and prices are going to be problems for the U.S. in the not-too-distant future unless we have a war between Israel and Iran: then the not-too-distant future will become NOW.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weather’s changing fast.

Iran Again: A weather report attempts to give an idea of upcoming/incoming weather in order for its viewers/listeners/readers to have some advance notice of the coming weather conditions and events, especially those that could produce dangerous results, and prepare accordingly. Here’s a bit of weather PrudentHome thinks is worth watching for:

• “US raises stakes on Iran by sending in ships and missiles” is the title of this Chris McGreal piece from The Guardian (guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan31) made available via Drudge Report (drudge report.com) on 2/1/10. Here are some of its key points:

• “Tension between the US and Iran heightened dramatically today with the disclosure that Barak Obama is deploying a missile shield to protect American allies in the Gulf from attack by Iran. The US is dispatching Patriot defensive missiles to four countries — Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait — and keeping two ships in the Gulf capable of shooting down Iranian missiles. Washington is also helping Saudi Arabia develop a force to protect its oil installations.”

• KEY POINT: “Washington is also concerned at the threat of action by Israel, which is predicting that Iran will be able to build a nuclear missile within a year, a much faster timetable than assessed by the US, and is warning that it will not let Tehran come close to completion if diplomacy fails”

In an economically/financially  fragile world, a major war in the Middle East, with its almost certain effect of reducing oil availability, could/would be devastating to the industrialized nations of the world and their peoples: that includes the USA and us.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weather’s moving fast.

More Middle -East Tensions: We spoke a short while ago about the oil-critical Strait of Hormuz and  now we see this headline over at newsmaxworld.com on 12/14/09: “Iran Working on Secret Nuclear Trigger”. Here are some of the articles key points:

• “LONDON – Confidential intelligence documents obtained by The Times show that Iran is working on testing a key final component of a nuclear bomb.” The notes, from Iran’s most sensitive military nuclear project, describe a four-year plan to test a neutron iniator, the component of a nuclear bomb that triggers an explosion. Foreign intelligence agencies date them to early 2007, four years after Iran was thought to have suspended its weapons programme.”

• “The technical document describes the use of a neutron source, uranium deuteride, which independent experts confirm has no possible civilian or military use other than in a nuclear weapon. Uranium deuteride is the material used in Pakistan’s bomb, from where Iran obtained its blueprint.”

And this from foxnews.com on 12/16/09: “Iran Test-Fires Its Longest-Range Missile” (from 12/16/09 AP):

• “TEHRAN, Iran — Iran on Wednesday test-fired an upgraded version of its most advanced missile, which is capable of hitting Israel and parts of Europe.”

• “LIVESHOTS: Important Points About Iran’s Missile Test”

• “The two-stage Sajjil-2, and is powered entirely by solid-fuel while the older, medium-range Sahab-3 missile uses a combination of soild and liquid fuel in its most advanced form.”

• “Defense Minister Gen. Ahmad Vahidi  … He said the new version (the Sajjil-2) can be fueled more quickly and flies faster than previous ones making it harder to shoot down … ”

• “Solid-fuel missiles like the Sajjil-2 are more accutate than the liquid fuel missiles of similar range currently possessed by Iran. They are also a concern because they can be fueled in advance and moved or hidden in silos.”

PH Comment: The net-same as our last comment on the Strait of Hormuz situation: If we had to place a bet, it would be placed on war.
Prepare families, prepare.

Conversations With ‘Pop’ Smith: PH Question – ‘Pop’, a lot of prepping/posting folks are making                                suggestions for preparedness items as gifts during this holiday season. Any thoughts here?
‘Pop’: It’s a great time for giving preparedness gifts, what with the sales and all, as they’re sure to stimulate focus and interest on/in  preparedness. That’s especially important in these times. Here are a couple of inexpensive gifts (“stocking stuffers”) that should always prove useful:

1. A good-quality manual can-opener

2. A pair of good-quality toenail clippers

3. An eye glasses repair/maintenance kit with added spare parts (screws, etc.).

Also, I haven’t seen it mentioned much but this a great time to acquire/expand your stores with “seasonal” food items that are especially offered for holiday use at very cheap prices. Here are some of the items that I take advantage of:

1. sugar

2. baking soda

3. baking powder

4. hard candy

5. canned yams

6. cranberry sauce

just to name a few. Keep seasonal foods in mind (they can be eaten any time of year) and watch your expiration dates.
Merry Christmas!

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

Photo credit: KaCey97007

2. Static to Lower Wages/Incomes: Regardless of “overall” economic models that may show increases in incomes, employment, etc., the average American will have less money to deal with the expenses of family; both necessary and elective. A quick look at Social Security payments will provide an example here.

3. A Generally Weaker & Weakening Dollar: This will be due primarily to increasing levels of federal debt and the fact that this debt is being met with borrowed and newly printed money. These responses will push up prices, especially imports, and thereby contribute heavily to #1. Pay particular attention for a continuing erosion of the U.S. dollar (for our debt policy stated above) as the world’s reserve currency. More countries will begin doing business between themselves through the exchange of their respective currencies and/or barter. More countries will ask for payments in currencies other than the U. S. dollar (such as the Euro) and/or call for a “market basket” of currencies or an internationally recognized unit of value. Also watch for countries reducing the U.S. dollar as a portion of their reserves.

4. A Lower Standard of Living for The Average American Family: This will be a result if #’s 1-3 and a
continuing weak economy with weak employment (U6) stretching far into the future. Look to the real employment numbers (and other important statistics) from sources like John Williams’ shadowstats.com NOT the federal government.

5. Increased Civil Unrest Over That Of 2009: It might be due to higher food prices, higher taxes/fees,  jobless benefit cuts (the states are running out unemployment money) or some government policy or another but the increasing level of citizen dissatisfaction with current conditions almost assures an increase in  civil unrest (and a government response) to further significant disruption in American’s day-to-day lives.

6. Increased Terrorist Activity In The U.S. & The World: Terrorism appears to be expanding all around the world. It’s message is resonating and captivating not just among the poor but with the affluent young also. Whether in Yemen or London, more are being influenced to support and/or  join this movement. The result of terrorists recruiting successes will nearly guarantee more terrorist activity and attacks in the U.S. and around the world. The individual that called this “The Long War” was spot on!

7. A “Black Swan” Event: (“the existence & occurence of high-impact, hard to predict and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectation”) Here are three possibilities with any of the three providing major repercussions (especially #1):

• War between Israel and Iran resulting in a closing of the Strait of Hormuz (at least)
• and a dramatic reduction in oil availability for the industrialized world (at least).
• The failure/disintegration of a major nation such as Mexico or Pakistan.
• Bankruptcy of a major nation such as Greece, the Baltic’s, or one from Eastern Europe.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

Photo credit: Mike Gadd

The Straight of Hormuz: If you’ve read much of PrudentHome over time then you’re familiar with our periodic updates on events concerning the ongoing friction between Israel and Iran. We’ve covered this area, almost alone among the preparedness and survival blogs, because we believe it represents a potentially critical flashpoint of conflict that could dramatically reduce America’s ability to function as an industrial nation by closing or substantially restricting the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

The following article from WorldNet Daily (wnd.com) on 12/7/09 entitled “Navy: Iran able to shut down oil route – Nearly 1/3 of world’s supplies pass through Strait of Hormuz” (excerpted from Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin) brings our concerns to greater light. Here are some of the articles key points:

• “The Office of Naval Intelligence has confirmed that Iran can shut down the strategic Strait of Hormuz through which move more than 30 percent of the world’s oil supplies pass according to a report from Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin.
• The report was posted on the website for the ONI, but abruptly removed after about a week.Before its unexpected removal, G2B was able to obtain a copy of the unclassified report …
• “World economies would suffer a “serious economic impact from a sustain closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to greatly reduced supplies of crude oil, petroleum supplies, and (liquefied natural gas), “ ONI said.
• The report also pointed to Iran’s naval modernization to help carry out such a closure. Indeed, the report said that Iran not only is expanding its current arms inventories but is adding “increasingly sophisticated systems” which it has acquired from China and Russia.”

PH Comment: This informative article continues on, mentioning the types of sophisticated arms systems that Iran has and is thought to be acquiring. But perhaps the most important piece of information the article presents is the admission on the part of the U.S. Navy that it cannot keep the Strait of Hormuz open if Iran moves to shut it down.

To our knowledge, the U.S. Navy has never admitted anything like this before; at least in public.
Also, we’ve recently heard from an interview with  a former U. S. Ambassador that, in his opinion, UN sanctions on Iran – past, present, and future – will be too little and too late. Iran is too close to actually having a nuclear weapon to be influenced by any level/type of sanctions.

So here we are: either Iran is allowed to become a belligerent (some say) nuclear power in an area of critical significance to the industrial nations of the world or … war to change her standing and mind. If we had to place a bet it would be placed on war. Prepare families prepare.

Until next time, keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

The Dollars Decline: Today’s post headline comes to us from the Financial Times (ft.com) of 11/29/09  via survivable.com of 12/01/09. The article is by Jeffrey Garten and is entitled “We must get ready for a weak-dollar world”.

Photo Credit: SqueakyMarmot

Here’s a portion of this important piece:

• “The roots of this situation are well known. The American budget deficit of this past fiscal year reached 10 per cent of gross domestic product, the largest since the aftermath of the second world war. Meanwhile, the net external debt of the US nearly tripled last year. To $3,500bn and it is projected to increase by nearly $1,000bn every year for the next decade. All this underestimates the problems of a country where unfunded liabilities for baby boomer entitlements are in the stratosphere, infrastructure deterioration is scandalous and many large states are out of money. To close the gaps. Taxes would have to be raised to sky-high levels and spending brutally slashed. It would take a miracle if America’s political system – one rife with vicious partisanship and riddled with well-financed special interests – could do either, let alone both.
• Washington will therefore have little choice but to take the time-honored course for big-time debtors: print more dollars, devalue the currency and service debt in ever cheaper greenbacks. In other words, the US will have to camouflage a slow-motion default because politically it is the easiest way out.”

U.S. Government Failure: To hand-in-glove the above piece, this observation from yesterday’s Of Two Minds blog (oftwominds.com) post by Charles Hugh Smith entitled “The Grand Failure of Government to Limit Concentration of Power”:

• “This, then, is the grand failure of government: due to the concentration of power accumulated by those with asymmetric stakes in the game, any attempt to limit a concentration of power is thwarted by status quo. All the issues which so worried Madison in “The Federalist Papers” have come to full flower: the power of the State has been legally channeled into Elites which have nothing to fear from any branch of the State because they are the State.”

PH Comment: So here we are. “We The People” are on our own. No one is coming to rescue us and the boats have all been taken or burned. We build from here.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

Our posting and commentary on the foregoing is the product of: a conversation with an older acquaintance with degrees in economics, business (and more than 30 years national and international business experience) as well as some re-reads. Our acquaintance is negative and nervous and so are we.  Here’s why:

• “Societe Generale has advised clients to be ready for a possible “global economic collapse” over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction.”
• “ In a report entitled “Worst-case debt scenario”, the bank’s asset team said state rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred private liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders creating a fresh set of problems.
• Overall debt is still far too high in almost all rich economies as a share of GDP (350pc in the US), whether public or private. It must be reduced by the hard slog of “deleveraging”, for years.”
• “Governments have already shot their fiscal bolts.”
• “The underlying debt burden is greater than it was after the Second World War … Ageing populations will make it harder to erode debt through growth. “High public debt looks entirely unsustainable in the long run. We have almost reached a point of no return for government debt,” it said.”
• “Inflating debt away might be seen by some governments as a lesser of evils.”
• “Private debt is also crippling. Even if the US savings rate stabilizes at 7pc, and all of it is used to pay down debt, it will take nine years for households to reduce debt/income ratios to the safe levels of the 1980’s.”

PH Comment: In the conversation with our acquaintance referenced above, I said that from an average mans observation I would have to ask the question, “How could America possibly pay all of her debts and promises?”. My acquaintance just smiled and said, “We can’t.”

Conversations With ‘Pop’ Smith:

PH Question – “’Pop’, The last time we talked you gave us an idea of what you were working on now to prepare this week and this quarter. Could you give us an idea about how you set these weekly and quarterly projects up?”

‘Pop’: I use a notebook and a pencil or ballpoint pen and set up a week, say 11/10 to 11/17. Then I write down three projects I want to get done during that week.

It’s as important to write down the dates/time frame as it is each of the three projects because it’s the writing down of these things that makes them a personal commitment to yourself to try and get them done and on time. When I get one done, I mark it off. If I don’t get but say two of them done this week, then I circle the unfinished project and make it number one or two next week.

OBTW, I leave a couple of lines clear below each project to comment on how it went, how to do it better next time or why I didn’t complete it. Also, I’ve learned not to beat myself up over not completing a project if there’s a good reason; I just write the reason down and move on.

OBTW again, by keeping a record of your projects along with comments, you eventually get a pretty good idea of what you can get done and you then tend to make your projects more realistic in terms of both your time and talents.

I set my quarterly projects the same way save for a bit more space left for comments.

Until next time, keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.