1. What is the track record of the predictor?

2. What’s his forum: both the place he‘s speaking from and his audience?
In the Leo Lewis (Asia Business Correspondent) article in the business.timesonline.co.uk of 2/22/10 – sourced from lifeaftertheoilcrash.net – entitled “Buy farmland and gold,’ advises Dr. Doom”, we get Marc Faber. He is “…the notoriously bearish market pundit, who predicted the 1987 stock market crash…” and he’s speaking “… in Tokyo at a gathering of 700 pension and sovereign wealth fund managers.”
Here’s some of what the article and Mr. Faber had to say:

• “Speaking today, Dr. Faber said that investors, who control billions of dollars of assets, should start considering the effects of more disruptive events than market volatility. “The next war will be a dirty war,” he told fund managers. “What are you  going to do when your mobile phone gets shuts down or the internet stops working or the city water supplies get poisoned?”

• “He also said that they should consider holding part of their wealth in the form of precious metals “because they can be carried.”

• “At the heart of Dr. Faber’s argument is a fundamentally gloomy view on the U.S. economy and its capacity to service a growing mountain of debt.”

• “His belief, fund managers were told, is that the U.S. is going to go bankrupt.”

Micro: From a number of sources (i.e., drudge.com and survivable.com) earlier this week, we got information that says: “Citigroup Warns Customers It May Refuse To Allow Withdrawals”. This specific article is the one we’ll reference. It is by John Carney, posted on business insider.com on 2/19/10.
Here’s some of what it says:

• “… we heard that Citigroup was telling customers it has the right to prevent withdrawals from checking accounts for seven days.” This information was presented  “… on statements received by customers all over the country.”, and said in part: “ While we do not currently exercise this right and have not exercised it in the past, we are required by law to notify you of this change.”

• “It seems that this is something of an error. The seven day notice policy only applies to customers in Texas, Ira Stoll reports at the Future of Capitalism. It was accidentally included on customer statements nationwide.”

• “UPDATE: According to Stoll, Citi issued a statement saying that it had been required to make this change by federal regulations–and it no longer sounds like it’s limited to Texas.”
• 
  “UPDATE: Citibank has now released the following statement by way of explanation: … ,we have never exercised this right and have no plans to do so in the future.”

PH Comment: That banking institutions would have the foregoing power to prevent withdrawals at their discretion should provide the prudent home with at least a couple of considerations: have your money in at least two banking institutions to increase the chances of being able make a withdrawal from one, and have an emergency “cash stash” around the house (in at least two fireproof places and checked with a counterfeit detector pen) to enable your home to function in an emergency.

If there’s a real emergency, such as one without electricity, cash may be the only thing that works.

Until next time: keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers moving fast.

“From Jan 1, 2011, every transaction above 1500 euros between natural persons and businesses, or between businesses, will not be considered legal if it is done in cash. Transactions will have to be done through debit or credit cards.”

LATOC Comment: “Welcome to the NWO. Coming to a country near you soon.”

Until next time; Keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

But this past week we ran into an essay by John Michael Greer posted 2/3/10 on his web site, “The Archdruid Report”, entitled “Endgame”. This “should read” essay calmly, clearly and reasonably ties a lot of these current headlines and views together while putting them in some historical context: hence the title “Endgame”.
Here are a few excerpts with a compelling conclusion:

• “Scattered among the statistical noise that makes up most of today’s news are data points that suggest to me that business as usual is quietly coming to an end around us, launching us into a new world for which very few of us have made any preparations at all.”

• “What this means, if I’m right, is that we may have just moved into the endgame of America’s losing battle with the consequences of its own history. For many years now, people in the peak oil scene – and the wider community of those concerned about the future, to be sure have had, or thought they had, the luxury of ample time to make plans and take action. Every so often books would be written and speeches made claiming that something had to be done right away, while there was still time, but most people took this as the rhetorical flourish it usually was, and went on with their live in the confident expectation that the crisis was a long way off. We may no longer have that option. If I read the signs correctly, America has finally reached the point where its economy is so deep into overshoot that catabolic collapse is beginning in earnest.”

CONCLUSION:

• “Those of my readers who haven’t already been beggared by the unraveling of what’s left of the economy, and have some hope of keeping a roof over their heads for the foreseeable future, might be well advised to stock their pantries, clear their debts, and get to know their neighbors, if they haven’t taken these sensible steps already. Those of my readers who haven’t taken the time already to learn a practical skill or two, well enough that others might be willing to pay or barter for the results, had better get a move on. Those of my readers who want to see some part of the heritage of the present saved for the future, finally, may want to do something practical about that, and soon. I may be wrong – and to be frank, I hope that I’m wrong – but it looks increasingly to me as though we’re in for a very rough time in the very near future.”

PrudentHome Comment: We couldn’t agree more.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

Worse yet to come?

The comments we heard/saw varied from “No way!” to “We already knew that.”

It’s PrudentHomes’ view that the information/”signs” has value because:

A. They have been brought together in one place suitable for a quick copy (and then as a basis for further discussion) and

B. Whether any of the signs are of “… The Final Economic Plunge” or not they could have a profound/negative effect on the Prudent family. Here are three of the signs with some of their commentary:

1. “Price Inflation Of Oil: For a long time, oil has been traded on the world markets exclusively in U.S. dollars. Oil and the dollar are therefore intimately connected. Oil will be the first commodity to reveal any inflation (or hyperinflation) in the dollar breakdown.”

2. “Grocery Store Peculiarities: Wholesale prices of goods have recently been increasing far beyond what mainstream economists had predicted, hinting at the first steps towards inflation… Eventually, stores and manufacturers can no longer absorb the inflation, and either raise their prices, or diminish their volume. Keep careful note of your local grocery stores.”

3. “Terror Attack / New War: The world is on the brink as it is. If a terrorist attack (false flag attack), or a new war arises, it is time to collect your gear, your family, your friends, and make for the hills (if that’s where you plan to go). Any new and extended threat of conflict in 2010 will be used as an excuse to institute martial law and subjugation of civil liberties, not to mention trigger a financial meltdown…”

PrudentHome Comment: We have mentioned several times in this new year that NOW is a great time to raise you and your families’ awareness level as to events, situations and conditions. The foregoing three “signs” are examples of what we meant/mean. Please read the article and consider any of the “signs” mentioned as a trigger, at least, for immediate action to pull together any loose ends in your program of family preparedness.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

More Middle -East Tensions: We spoke a short while ago about the oil-critical Strait of Hormuz and  now we see this headline over at newsmaxworld.com on 12/14/09: “Iran Working on Secret Nuclear Trigger”. Here are some of the articles key points:

• “LONDON – Confidential intelligence documents obtained by The Times show that Iran is working on testing a key final component of a nuclear bomb.” The notes, from Iran’s most sensitive military nuclear project, describe a four-year plan to test a neutron iniator, the component of a nuclear bomb that triggers an explosion. Foreign intelligence agencies date them to early 2007, four years after Iran was thought to have suspended its weapons programme.”

• “The technical document describes the use of a neutron source, uranium deuteride, which independent experts confirm has no possible civilian or military use other than in a nuclear weapon. Uranium deuteride is the material used in Pakistan’s bomb, from where Iran obtained its blueprint.”

And this from foxnews.com on 12/16/09: “Iran Test-Fires Its Longest-Range Missile” (from 12/16/09 AP):

• “TEHRAN, Iran — Iran on Wednesday test-fired an upgraded version of its most advanced missile, which is capable of hitting Israel and parts of Europe.”

• “LIVESHOTS: Important Points About Iran’s Missile Test”

• “The two-stage Sajjil-2, and is powered entirely by solid-fuel while the older, medium-range Sahab-3 missile uses a combination of soild and liquid fuel in its most advanced form.”

• “Defense Minister Gen. Ahmad Vahidi  … He said the new version (the Sajjil-2) can be fueled more quickly and flies faster than previous ones making it harder to shoot down … ”

• “Solid-fuel missiles like the Sajjil-2 are more accutate than the liquid fuel missiles of similar range currently possessed by Iran. They are also a concern because they can be fueled in advance and moved or hidden in silos.”

PH Comment: The net-same as our last comment on the Strait of Hormuz situation: If we had to place a bet, it would be placed on war.
Prepare families, prepare.

Conversations With ‘Pop’ Smith: PH Question – ‘Pop’, a lot of prepping/posting folks are making                                suggestions for preparedness items as gifts during this holiday season. Any thoughts here?
‘Pop’: It’s a great time for giving preparedness gifts, what with the sales and all, as they’re sure to stimulate focus and interest on/in  preparedness. That’s especially important in these times. Here are a couple of inexpensive gifts (“stocking stuffers”) that should always prove useful:

1. A good-quality manual can-opener

2. A pair of good-quality toenail clippers

3. An eye glasses repair/maintenance kit with added spare parts (screws, etc.).

Also, I haven’t seen it mentioned much but this a great time to acquire/expand your stores with “seasonal” food items that are especially offered for holiday use at very cheap prices. Here are some of the items that I take advantage of:

1. sugar

2. baking soda

3. baking powder

4. hard candy

5. canned yams

6. cranberry sauce

just to name a few. Keep seasonal foods in mind (they can be eaten any time of year) and watch your expiration dates.
Merry Christmas!

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

The Dollars Decline: Today’s post headline comes to us from the Financial Times (ft.com) of 11/29/09  via survivable.com of 12/01/09. The article is by Jeffrey Garten and is entitled “We must get ready for a weak-dollar world”.

Photo Credit: SqueakyMarmot

Here’s a portion of this important piece:

• “The roots of this situation are well known. The American budget deficit of this past fiscal year reached 10 per cent of gross domestic product, the largest since the aftermath of the second world war. Meanwhile, the net external debt of the US nearly tripled last year. To $3,500bn and it is projected to increase by nearly $1,000bn every year for the next decade. All this underestimates the problems of a country where unfunded liabilities for baby boomer entitlements are in the stratosphere, infrastructure deterioration is scandalous and many large states are out of money. To close the gaps. Taxes would have to be raised to sky-high levels and spending brutally slashed. It would take a miracle if America’s political system – one rife with vicious partisanship and riddled with well-financed special interests – could do either, let alone both.
• Washington will therefore have little choice but to take the time-honored course for big-time debtors: print more dollars, devalue the currency and service debt in ever cheaper greenbacks. In other words, the US will have to camouflage a slow-motion default because politically it is the easiest way out.”

U.S. Government Failure: To hand-in-glove the above piece, this observation from yesterday’s Of Two Minds blog (oftwominds.com) post by Charles Hugh Smith entitled “The Grand Failure of Government to Limit Concentration of Power”:

• “This, then, is the grand failure of government: due to the concentration of power accumulated by those with asymmetric stakes in the game, any attempt to limit a concentration of power is thwarted by status quo. All the issues which so worried Madison in “The Federalist Papers” have come to full flower: the power of the State has been legally channeled into Elites which have nothing to fear from any branch of the State because they are the State.”

PH Comment: So here we are. “We The People” are on our own. No one is coming to rescue us and the boats have all been taken or burned. We build from here.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

Our posting and commentary on the foregoing is the product of: a conversation with an older acquaintance with degrees in economics, business (and more than 30 years national and international business experience) as well as some re-reads. Our acquaintance is negative and nervous and so are we.  Here’s why:

• “Societe Generale has advised clients to be ready for a possible “global economic collapse” over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction.”
• “ In a report entitled “Worst-case debt scenario”, the bank’s asset team said state rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred private liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders creating a fresh set of problems.
• Overall debt is still far too high in almost all rich economies as a share of GDP (350pc in the US), whether public or private. It must be reduced by the hard slog of “deleveraging”, for years.”
• “Governments have already shot their fiscal bolts.”
• “The underlying debt burden is greater than it was after the Second World War … Ageing populations will make it harder to erode debt through growth. “High public debt looks entirely unsustainable in the long run. We have almost reached a point of no return for government debt,” it said.”
• “Inflating debt away might be seen by some governments as a lesser of evils.”
• “Private debt is also crippling. Even if the US savings rate stabilizes at 7pc, and all of it is used to pay down debt, it will take nine years for households to reduce debt/income ratios to the safe levels of the 1980’s.”

PH Comment: In the conversation with our acquaintance referenced above, I said that from an average mans observation I would have to ask the question, “How could America possibly pay all of her debts and promises?”. My acquaintance just smiled and said, “We can’t.”

Conversations With ‘Pop’ Smith:

PH Question – “’Pop’, The last time we talked you gave us an idea of what you were working on now to prepare this week and this quarter. Could you give us an idea about how you set these weekly and quarterly projects up?”

‘Pop’: I use a notebook and a pencil or ballpoint pen and set up a week, say 11/10 to 11/17. Then I write down three projects I want to get done during that week.

It’s as important to write down the dates/time frame as it is each of the three projects because it’s the writing down of these things that makes them a personal commitment to yourself to try and get them done and on time. When I get one done, I mark it off. If I don’t get but say two of them done this week, then I circle the unfinished project and make it number one or two next week.

OBTW, I leave a couple of lines clear below each project to comment on how it went, how to do it better next time or why I didn’t complete it. Also, I’ve learned not to beat myself up over not completing a project if there’s a good reason; I just write the reason down and move on.

OBTW again, by keeping a record of your projects along with comments, you eventually get a pretty good idea of what you can get done and you then tend to make your projects more realistic in terms of both your time and talents.

I set my quarterly projects the same way save for a bit more space left for comments.

Until next time, keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

Note: You can read the first part of our review here.

‘Continued Review’: Chapter 2 – Basics

The really smartest teachers and instructors begin their class with the assumption that the students know little or nothing about the subject matter that’s going to be presented and they begin from the beginning.  Mr. Solomon begins his class the same way in his Chapter 2 – Basics:

• The author notes that vegetable plants are very much the product of human development and as such require an environment that is highly favorable to their development with sunlight, shelter, water, fertilizer and little competition from other (wild) plants or animals.
• “ … heirloom varieties, bred before the use of chemical fertilizers, are especially good at growing in ordinary soil.”
• Mr. Solomon breaks down vegetables, by name, in a chart according to the level of care needed to have them productive: Low Demand (carrots and turnip greens), Medium Demand (sweet corn and tomatoes), and High Demand (cauliflower and Italian broccoli).
• He points out that soils are richest where rainfall is just sufficient and therefore plants, animals and people are healthiest when growing in/on/from these soils. His example is prairie soil.
• The author continues by describing and defining a complete organic fertilizer (COF) he has developed, which along with compost  will provide optimum plant nutrition. He describes it as a “… concocted by the gardener.”
• On page 24, Mr. Solomon offers a key reason for growing your own vegetables: “… a comparison of nutritional tables published by the USDA over the past 25 years (covered in the March 2001 issue of Life Extension Magazine) shows that the average nutritional content of vegetables has also declined about 25 to 33 percent across the board — all vegetables, all vitamins and minerals. …”
• An excellent chart of “Fertilizing values of manures and simple fertilizers” is presented on page 28 and is sandwiched in between informed commentary on variables for the listed values with  suggested uses in/for your garden. Here it is also noted that the healthiest animals with the soundest nutrition provide the most valuable manure.
• In his section on Increasing soil fertility, Mr. Solomon shines by speaking to a broad economic range of readers and enabling almost anyone to improve their soil in a step-by-step program.
• His last chart in Chapter 2  is “Soil improvement in a nutshell”. This chart discusses soil improvement in terms of the demands placed on the soil by the types of vegetables to be grown in it: Low demand, Medium Demand, and High Demand. Preceding and subsequent pages of the chapter discuss soil improvement with clarity by presenting definitions, examples, and usages/applications.
• In his chapter Summary, Mr. Solomon says, “This chapter has provided the bare minimum of information and some basic techniques. If you knew nothing more than this, and if you spread some manure and lime (or, better, manure and COF), dug the ground once a year, followed the vague instructions on the back of seed packets, put in some seedling and a few seeds, hoed the weeds, and did a bit of thinning, you would have a productive garden.” — He’s absolutely right.

Chapter 1 and 2 alone should give the idea that Mr. Solomon’s book isn’t just a good gardening book but an excellent gardening “reference book” also. It is and we’ll be continuing our review and discussion of subsequent chapters shortly.

Until a little later; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

“A report by University of California, Berkley economics professor Emmanuel Saez concludes that income in the United States is at an all-time high, surpassing even levels seen during the great depression.

The report shows that:

• Income inequality is worse than it has been since at least 1917
• “The top 1 percent incomes captured half of the overall growth over the period 1993-2007”
• “In the economic expansion of 2002-2007, the top 1 percent captured two thirds of income growth.”
• As others have pointed out, the average wage of Americans, adjusting for inflation, is lower than it was in the 1970’s. The minimum wage, adjusting for inflation, is lower than it was in the 1950’s. …”
• “Of the 535 members of Congress, over 44% – 237 to be exact – are millionaires. …”

U.S. Moving to 3^rd World Status?: On November 16^th, 2009, Mike Folkerth – King of Simple  (mikefolkerth.com) gave us this guest post by Greg Chadwick under Mr, Folkerth’s post title “A One-Way, Non-Stop Ticket to 3^rd World Status On A Slow Train”. It seemed to us insightful and at least as good a guess concerning an economic collapse coming to/in America as any we’ve read recently. Here are some of Mr. Chadwick’s views:

• “First, we need to understand that collapse isn’t coming, it’s already here. Large numbers of people are already unemployed, homeless, and hungry, for them, depression has already arrived. Virtually everyone in the US has experienced a significant erosion of purchasing power since the Seventies. But notice it didn’t happen overnight. We lost a little here and there; nothing sudden or dramatic.”
• “One day soon the dollar will no longer be the world’s reserve currency and we will need to pay for oil with something other than dollars. Our largely worthless dollars won’t give us a favorable exchange rate in the way of purchasing power so we will learn to drive and eat less and walk more. …”
• “The government and the mainstream media will acknowledge that we are going through a rough patch. However, they will assure us that recovery is just around the corner, just like nuclear fusion, which has been just around the corner for the past fifty year, and most will believe them. They will do their best to distract us with nonsense. …”
• If we expect to live well in the coming years, we need to take action now . This is no different than buying homeowners insurance. Anyone who waits until his house is on fire to buy a policy could find himself living under an overpass. …”
• “What does the future look like? Just like today, except that it will be a little worse. There will be relentless deterioration, mostly imperceptible, too slow to cause alarm, and certainly not enough to trigger a flight or fight response. For most people the alarm will never go off.”

PH Comment: Mr. Chadwick makes some solid points concerning our economic history – recently. What we feel he may not be considering are possible events along the lines of a war in the middle-east, civil unrest in the US, or terrorism here in America – another more deadly strike. Any of these, or other events, could produce rapid deterioration and/or worse.

For the prudent family, it would appear to us that a strong program of preparation (water, food, medicine, self-protection, etc.) for harder times is in order. This program would, as we have said in the past, center around faith, family friends, and neighbors. We need to get to work on this as the time may very well be short.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

“… There’s been a pretty significant development in regards to peak Oil that’s worth drawing particular attention to. From yesterday’s UK Guardian, …The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims [the agency] has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while      overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.”

A bit later in the article:

“Many inside the organization believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m To 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further.

A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organization was that it was ‘imperative not to anger the Americans” but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. “We have [already] entered the ‘peak oil’ zone. I think that the situation is really bad,” he added.

PH Comment: It seems that all governments want important information skewed to meet their particular ends and it’s with this in mind that we continue to recommend having a number of reliable sources for your information.

Life After The Oil Crash has proven itself in this regard to PrudentHome.

Conversations With ‘Pop’ Smith: Question – ‘Pop’, in our last conversation you said that you thought that we were in the “Long Recovery” and that you were preparing for sustained hard times. Are you prepared?

‘Pop’ Smith’: No, I’m not prepared but I am continuing to prepare given our time and resources. To give you an idea of what we’re doing this winter;

1. We’re expanding and preparing our garden area to more than twice the small size we had this past spring
2. We’ve just finished an inventory of the over-the-counter drugs in our family medical kit and separated those that need to be replaced (old or expired) ASAP.
3. We’re changing out our oldest stored water for fresh and expanding our reserves by about 20%.

This past week we set up a jar for pocket change to help finance an expected and expanded seed purchase for our 2010 spring garden as soon as the catalogs begin to arrive. We plan on wiping down our garden tool handles (wood) and walking sticks with linseed oil for preservation and protection. And finally, we’ve changed out some of our more recently stored honey into mason jars from less reliable containers.

Our goal is to accomplish some three small jobs each week and three larger jobs each quarter at a minimum.

Thanks, Pop.