Pop: ’Been’ working on some “little” projects. Here are three that may be of interest to your readers:

1. ’Got’ this tip from ’Pack Rat” a couple of weeks ago at one of our coffee and fishing socials: get hold of one of those counterfeit money detection pens from your local business/office supply store. The purpose here would be to check your “stash cash” in order to make sure it’s real money. You can be sure that in an emergency, your local “Quick Stop” clerk will check your cash when you pay up for your gas.

2. You might want to set up some two-pack combos for fire starting kits for your neighbors in an emergency: use a couple of plastic, zip-lock type pill pouches that measure about 1&¾ in. X 3in. In one, put a regular book of matches and one of those little “can’t-blow-it-out” birthday candles, and in the other, put in about a half-dozen Vaseline soaked cotton balls. Put both filled and closed pill pouches in a zip-lock type sandwich bag to keep them together. Remember to tell your neighbors how to use this kit because if they have to ask you for “fire”, they may not know.

3. ‘Took’ your advice and ordered extra garden seed for my 2010 (or an “event”) garden and went a bit beyond that to have enough for next Christmas’ stocking stuffers for family. I guess there might be enough too, to have for barter – if I cut and tape a few of those bank envelopes you get back from the teller at the drive-thru – or charity, if I limit the “new” packs to 10-12 seeds each.

See you around.

Until next time; Keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

Our posting and commentary on the foregoing is the product of: a conversation with an older acquaintance with degrees in economics, business (and more than 30 years national and international business experience) as well as some re-reads. Our acquaintance is negative and nervous and so are we.  Here’s why:

• “Societe Generale has advised clients to be ready for a possible “global economic collapse” over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction.”
• “ In a report entitled “Worst-case debt scenario”, the bank’s asset team said state rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred private liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders creating a fresh set of problems.
• Overall debt is still far too high in almost all rich economies as a share of GDP (350pc in the US), whether public or private. It must be reduced by the hard slog of “deleveraging”, for years.”
• “Governments have already shot their fiscal bolts.”
• “The underlying debt burden is greater than it was after the Second World War … Ageing populations will make it harder to erode debt through growth. “High public debt looks entirely unsustainable in the long run. We have almost reached a point of no return for government debt,” it said.”
• “Inflating debt away might be seen by some governments as a lesser of evils.”
• “Private debt is also crippling. Even if the US savings rate stabilizes at 7pc, and all of it is used to pay down debt, it will take nine years for households to reduce debt/income ratios to the safe levels of the 1980’s.”

PH Comment: In the conversation with our acquaintance referenced above, I said that from an average mans observation I would have to ask the question, “How could America possibly pay all of her debts and promises?”. My acquaintance just smiled and said, “We can’t.”

Conversations With ‘Pop’ Smith:

PH Question – “’Pop’, The last time we talked you gave us an idea of what you were working on now to prepare this week and this quarter. Could you give us an idea about how you set these weekly and quarterly projects up?”

‘Pop’: I use a notebook and a pencil or ballpoint pen and set up a week, say 11/10 to 11/17. Then I write down three projects I want to get done during that week.

It’s as important to write down the dates/time frame as it is each of the three projects because it’s the writing down of these things that makes them a personal commitment to yourself to try and get them done and on time. When I get one done, I mark it off. If I don’t get but say two of them done this week, then I circle the unfinished project and make it number one or two next week.

OBTW, I leave a couple of lines clear below each project to comment on how it went, how to do it better next time or why I didn’t complete it. Also, I’ve learned not to beat myself up over not completing a project if there’s a good reason; I just write the reason down and move on.

OBTW again, by keeping a record of your projects along with comments, you eventually get a pretty good idea of what you can get done and you then tend to make your projects more realistic in terms of both your time and talents.

I set my quarterly projects the same way save for a bit more space left for comments.

Until next time, keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

“A report by University of California, Berkley economics professor Emmanuel Saez concludes that income in the United States is at an all-time high, surpassing even levels seen during the great depression.

The report shows that:

• Income inequality is worse than it has been since at least 1917
• “The top 1 percent incomes captured half of the overall growth over the period 1993-2007”
• “In the economic expansion of 2002-2007, the top 1 percent captured two thirds of income growth.”
• As others have pointed out, the average wage of Americans, adjusting for inflation, is lower than it was in the 1970’s. The minimum wage, adjusting for inflation, is lower than it was in the 1950’s. …”
• “Of the 535 members of Congress, over 44% – 237 to be exact – are millionaires. …”

U.S. Moving to 3^rd World Status?: On November 16^th, 2009, Mike Folkerth – King of Simple  (mikefolkerth.com) gave us this guest post by Greg Chadwick under Mr, Folkerth’s post title “A One-Way, Non-Stop Ticket to 3^rd World Status On A Slow Train”. It seemed to us insightful and at least as good a guess concerning an economic collapse coming to/in America as any we’ve read recently. Here are some of Mr. Chadwick’s views:

• “First, we need to understand that collapse isn’t coming, it’s already here. Large numbers of people are already unemployed, homeless, and hungry, for them, depression has already arrived. Virtually everyone in the US has experienced a significant erosion of purchasing power since the Seventies. But notice it didn’t happen overnight. We lost a little here and there; nothing sudden or dramatic.”
• “One day soon the dollar will no longer be the world’s reserve currency and we will need to pay for oil with something other than dollars. Our largely worthless dollars won’t give us a favorable exchange rate in the way of purchasing power so we will learn to drive and eat less and walk more. …”
• “The government and the mainstream media will acknowledge that we are going through a rough patch. However, they will assure us that recovery is just around the corner, just like nuclear fusion, which has been just around the corner for the past fifty year, and most will believe them. They will do their best to distract us with nonsense. …”
• If we expect to live well in the coming years, we need to take action now . This is no different than buying homeowners insurance. Anyone who waits until his house is on fire to buy a policy could find himself living under an overpass. …”
• “What does the future look like? Just like today, except that it will be a little worse. There will be relentless deterioration, mostly imperceptible, too slow to cause alarm, and certainly not enough to trigger a flight or fight response. For most people the alarm will never go off.”

PH Comment: Mr. Chadwick makes some solid points concerning our economic history – recently. What we feel he may not be considering are possible events along the lines of a war in the middle-east, civil unrest in the US, or terrorism here in America – another more deadly strike. Any of these, or other events, could produce rapid deterioration and/or worse.

For the prudent family, it would appear to us that a strong program of preparation (water, food, medicine, self-protection, etc.) for harder times is in order. This program would, as we have said in the past, center around faith, family friends, and neighbors. We need to get to work on this as the time may very well be short.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

• “Nearly half of all U.S. children and 90 percent of black youngsters will be on food stamps at some point during childhood, and fallout from the current recession could push those numbers even higher.”
• “An editorial in the medical journal (the November issue of Archives of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine/PH) agreed.
• “The current recession is likely to generate for children in the United States the greatest level of material deprivation that we will see in our professional lifetimes,” Stanford pediatrician Dr. Paul Wise wrote.”
• “… other recent research suggesting that more than 40 percent of U.S. children will live in poverty or near-poverty by age 17; and that half will live at some point in a single-parent family. Also, other researchers have estimated that slightly more than half of adults will use food stamps at some point by age 65.”

PH Comment: What the above article and information suggests to us here at PrudentHome is that America is in rough shape economically and socially. A lot of the statistics used to develop just the numbers PrudentHome has presented have been based on several decades worth of research  with a clear implication that things are getting worse not better. This is something that the preparing family needs to keep in mind as it works toward greater independence. This situation looks like a long haul at best and a sustainable preparation program is going to be required.

Conversations With ‘Pop’ Smith:

PH Question – “ ‘Pop’, we’ve been talking about a good general, in- depth family preparation program as being a base for dealing with almost any specific crisis-event coming down the road but do you see any problems on the near horizon that we might want to keep our eyes pealed for?

‘Pop’ Smith: While nobody can predict the future, all of us would want to be keenly aware of the direction our economy is taking. We’re at real unemployment at close to 20% with about 70% of our economy depending on near-full employment. Credit is tight and the people and the country owe more than they can pay back. This in a context of nervous creditors, national and international, wondering if we’re going to outright default on our debt or our country is going to print a lot more money with no backing and default that way. Either way things don’t look good.

Wages look like they’re going to hold steady at best for a while so with everything costing more (not just in the stores but in all your local and state taxes and “fees”), look for a lower standard of living for the average American in the short haul at best.

Also, you’re going to want to keep a sharp watch on the middle east. If Israel and Iran go at it, then all the bets are pretty much off the table. The bad now will seem good then

Don’t forget terrorism and civil unrest. Both of those are nearly sure bets pretty soon.

Bottom line: You’ve probably heard about the “Long Emergency” and the “Long War”, well I’d bet that you’re going to begin hearing about the “Long Recovery” pretty soon now. That’s what I’m preparing for: sustained hard times.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

• “As the global and U.S. economies emerge from the downturn, economists predict that there is going to be some sticker shock at the checkout line. Food prices, they say, are heading higher and when you combine that with an unemployment rate that’s expected to linger near a three-decade high for at least another year, it’s even more unwelcome news.”

• “The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects overall food prices to rise as much as 4 percent in the U.S. by the end of 2010. Yet, some economists think they will climb by as much as 5 percent.”
• “The end result? Consumers should keep an eye on oil prices, which not only impact what they pay at the pump but also what they pay at the checkout counter.”

PH Comment: In the first quarter of this year PrudentHome made five predictions for 2009. Three of them were: 1.Expect higher oil prices by years end., 2. Expect higher food prices before next year. and 3. Average Americans will experience a lower standard of living this year. All of those things have and are coming to pass and we expect the same for 2010. Prepare.

Conversations with ’Pop’ Smith:

PH Question: “ ‘Pop’, one of the most prevalent lines of thought today  is in regards to  folks responding to some sudden/catastrophic event by throwing prep gear into their vehicle and making a run for their retreat. Any thoughts?

‘Pop’ Smith: “First, a place to go that’s out of the mainstream and self-sustaining if things get really bad in the country is  really ideal. That said, getting to that place/retreat if things suddenly, or even gradually, get really bad is highly problematic. If the retreat is close, say within a tank of gas, and you leave early enough then things should work out pretty well. But if your having to wait until the “balloon goes up” before you strike out then you have some really bad potential problems.

First, do a quick review in you mind regarding the travel conditions that existed during nearly any of the last decades major hurricanes remembering that travel then was essentially unopposed by state of federal governments (time here to review two of the last presidential directives/orders signed by President Geo. W. Bush in about his last year in office and note that these give the president nearly absolute power over the entire country in a national emergency that he would unilaterally define and declare. What if he decided to restrict all interstate transportation immediately upon declaration of an emergency? Think not, then refer back to what happened to all U.S. air travel right after 9/11.)

Second, consider this: when you leave your place, for a short or long run after an event, you immediately become a refugee for the time you’re in transit. That’s the bottom line. Leave early.”

Until next time, keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers moving fast.

In “… an interview given by former Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh to the Sunday Times in which he said that if Iran were not further sanctioned by this Christmas Israel would attack the country. Sneh told the paper that if Israel were forced to attack the Islamic Republic on its own it would do so …”

PH – Focus: PrudentHome.com has mentioned the potential conflict between Israel and Iran several times in the past and has discussed some of the possible world-wide consequences stemming from such an event              (remember the closing of the Straits of Hormuz with its conveying forty percent of the world’s oil during a time of global recession/depression?) and we’re mentioning it again because time may be running out for a peaceful resolution of this conflict: less than ninety days.

No one can say with any certainty what the future of this or any difficulty will be, but what can be said is that now is an excellent time for the prudent family to focus. Focus on preparing for what appears to be an even more difficult and uncertain future in a host of different areas: continued (and perhaps worsening) economic downturn, influential regional/geo-political upheaval and/or war, climate change, resource depletion, population increases, and food availability concerns.

To name a few.

Focus on what your family can do to mitigate the effects of these or similar events on your family. Focus on developing greater independence from the existing economic system in a self-sustaining way. Focus on your family providing, for your family, more of what it needs to function in all the essential areas: shelter, food, water, medical care and security.

Focus on strengthening faith, family, friends, and neighbors.

Focus.

Conversations With ‘Pop’ Smith:

PH Question – Pop, there’s a lot of talk today about walk-out packs,  kits, ‘rucks’ etc., and they’re referred to as GOOD bags, BOB’s, WOB’s and a host of other acronyms. What a lot of folks are saying is that if things really break bad, they’ll just  “saddle up” and make for the woods. Any thoughts?

‘Pop’: Actually, that particular sentiment was more popular in “back in the day”. Today, it has less popularity because folks have been thinking-it-through a little more: there’s too many people, not enough woods, and a few have even tried to shoulder a forty to fifty pound pack for several rough-country  miles – a clarifying experience – and then just said, “mebbe not”.

Basically, a bag is to get you where you’re going and to provide for your needs (shelter, water, food, medicine, and security) along the way and/or for a relatively short while after. With great skill, health, conditioning, experience, and a good bit of luck, there are a very few individuals that could provide for themselves (survive) for quite some time. However, the “very few” aren’t taking along an aging parent, a child(ren) or a spouse with a chronic medical condition -  just to name a few additional concerns.

A bag is vital as a plan, or part of a plan ’B’ or ’C’. It’s for when your place is no longer viable, you need to get back to your place or someplace else; something like that. You must have one (several preferably, with each for a specific need/situation) as a part of any realistic preparation program but it’s probably not your first choice for a “home”.

The above headlines paint a grim picture of American unemployment “ But wait!” as they say in the TV commercials, “There’s more!”

The more is structural unemployment.

Structural unemployment by one definition runs along the lines of “Unemployment caused by changes in the structure of occupational opportunities, such as when a steel factory closes …”

We might add: such as when they’re no longer making Pontiac’s or Saturn’s (in the context of reduced U.S. auto manufacturing as a whole) or closing the washing machine factory and shipping the jobs to Mexico. But maybe it’s the poet, as is often the case lately, that really has it nailed: “The steady jobs are leavin’ boys and they ain’t coming back – to your home town.”

We here at PrudentHome, wouldn’t be surprised to see “civil unrest” right here in “ …  you home town.” (or in a home town near you) by Christmas and almost certainly within the next year.

Conversations With ‘Pop’ Smith: continued from last week – We were talking about family preparation being geared to roughly four levels of challenge:

1. General Preparation for standard/short-term events such as bad seasonal weather
2. Medium-term events such as a “Hurricane Katrina” or a deep recession
3. Long-term events such as a hard depression or a long term oil embargo
4. War and/or social breakdown.

Again, none of these events are mutually exclusive.

All of the events discussed above require that you prepare to provide your family with shelter, water, food, medical care at some level, and security at a minimum.

This all sounds like quit a bit of effort, and it is, but if you prepare the basics for level one, you have then established a base upon which to build for the greater challenges level two will demand. This follows through using the new, expanded base for number two to prepare for the increased challenges demanded by level three, etc. etc.

We’ve now slipped into a new understanding of preparation: preparation isn’t a static condition but very much a dynamic process.

Just like owning a house or a boat, you have to maintain them and adjust you maintenance, and perhaps expansion, to changing conditions and your changing needs.

As you’ve probably guessed by now, you’re never going to be 100% prepared for any event; you’re going to have adjust to learning to adjust. It’s kind of like a retired Marine Corps (special ops) buddy of mine says: adapt, improvise, and overcome. Sound advice and sound attitude.

Oh, there’s one other thing along the line of adjusting; you might notice that with each increased level of challenge, comes an increased level of stored goods – both in quantity and quality. The very same thing can be said for your skill levels: e.g., while a very basic level of first-aid might get you by in level one or two, you’ll probably want something more for level three and as much as you can acquire for level four.

This is a real general overview of family preparedness but I hope it’s helped a little.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.

Any ideas?

Pop: Let’s go at this a little backwards if we can and first look at it from the unconvinced spouse’s/family member’s  view. Their view might be summed up by three comments that seem to, in one form or another, come to light during (or right after) an “event”: natural or man-made.

#1. I didn’t understand.

#2. What do we do now?

#3. Is everything going to be alright?

If we can work from an understanding of these comments, from their viewpoint, then we’ve got a basis for “changing hearts and minds”.

The way I came to understand what #1 meant, and even to someone that had had been associated with family preparation for years but to whom the concept had never really “taken”, was just after the trade center twin towers collapsed on The September 11.

My youngest daughter was staring at the television, watching the folks evacuating that twin towers area on foot and exclaimed “Daddy, look, they’re walking out!”.

“Walking out” was, up until that time, a phrase that brought up some good-natured family humor at the old man’s expense.  I had used that phrase often in the past in describing an emergency exiting strategy.

Now she understood.

If you’ve got some time later this week, I’ll finish #2 and #3.

Until next time, keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers moving fast.

Economics With Geo-Politics – What’s China Up To?: We mean besides the buying up and leasing of farmland as well as oil and oil output, stockpiling critical resources of all kinds, advocating a switch from the U.S. dollar as world reserve currency (and quietly, quietly divesting from the dollar within its reserves), and buying gold. We mean this (from The Archdruid Report of 9/02/09 - thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com):

“ … the Chinese government is planning to ban the export of rare earth elements…these have become crucial to many cutting edge technologies. Lanthanum, for example, is used in high-tech batteries, and neodymium goes into the permanent magnets used in electric motors and wind turbines. The innards of the Prius and other hybrids, to say nothing of the as-yet-imaginary electric cars being hyped by what’s left of the American auto industry, depend on rare earth elements, and CHINA CURRENTLY PRODUCES WELL OVER 90% OF THE WORLD’S SUPPLY OF MOST OF THEM. (caps/PH).

PH Note: Maybe the Chinese, who don’t manage their nation from moment-to-moment, quarter-to-quarter, etc., have some insight into the possible future of the U.S. dollar, farmland, oil, and other critical resources. Maybe it’s because they’re responsible for about 20% of the worlds population. Maybe … ?

Food – Home Grown: Charles Hugh Smith at his “Of Two Minds” blog (oftwominds.com) demonstrates, again, his grasp of many of life’s most important verities in his 9/4/09 post entitled “Why We Should All Grow Some of Our Own Food”:

“There can be no real understanding of what food is without growing fruits or vegetables or raising livestock/fish and then preparing and eating the results. Even if it is a single tomato harvested from a single vine in a single pot on the deck of an apartment, then the experience is necessary to transform one’s understanding of food, nutrition and health.”

PH Note; Amen.

Conversations-To-Be: We’ve been talking with a couple of friends in our area over the last few years, concerning what’s been happening around our country and in the world in general. Their insights have proven to be valuable to us, to their families and to many of their other friends.

It’s with this in mind that we asked these two in particular for comments concerning local, national, and world/international affairs from the perspective of the individual family. Both men are “seniors”, fathers and grandfathers who’ve served in the military, are committed to their families and to their respective religious persuasions, and have demonstrated an independent spirit and mind while observing all of their essential responsibilities.  Neither will permit their names to be used nor quotes.

It is with these limitations in mind that we at PrudentHome are going to present their views as a work of fiction, in a single voice, under the title “Conversations With Pop Smith” [We got “Pop” from “Owen” ( not his real name) as that’s what his grand-kids call him and “Smith” from “Dave” (not his real name) as in “any John Smith”.]

While their world views have many similarities (surprisingly) their personalities are miles apart.

“Owen” is a neo-Luddite (in my view, as he prefers to hunt with a long bow, will if pressed shoot a re-curve but will not shoot a ‘compound’- which he describes as a machine. He’s also been known to note that knives don’t jam – whatever that means.) with a surprising grasp of history and the environment.

“Dave” is a common-sense philosopher (as in noting that regardless of reason or common-sense, people and countries do what they do because of what they feel they need to do at the time) and economist (as in: no jobs = no economy and nobody – person, family, country or world – can live beyond their means for an extended period of time) who believes simplicity + proper maintenance = reliability.

There’s no “Harvard” here but there will be some real-world, and hopefully valuable, views expressed at the end of every week in “ Conversations With Pop Smith.”

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.