Recession Over?

PrudentHome Observation: It’s our understanding that the U.S. and Israel will complete their largest  joint military exercise in history this next week, 11/3/09. It is was geared we’ve read, toward long range missile defense: the kind of missiles one might expect to come from Iran.

The Economy – Recession Over?: “Recession declared over” is the title of the 10/27/09,Tom Raum post  at beitbart.com (via lifeaftertheoilcrash.net on 10/28/09). Please note these interesting portions of the article:

• “The government will release figures this week expected to show that the economy has awakened from the deepest slump since the 1930’s and is in the early stages of a recovery. But the following week, the government will issue another set of figures expected to show unemployment continuing to rise toward and possibly above a clearly recessionary 10 percent.”
• “Many companies let inventories run down so much that when they ran out, orders picked up. Home resales ticked up as buyers scrambled to complete their purchases before the tax credit for first-time owners expires, And U.S. exporters have benefited from a relentless decline of the dollar that has made U.S. goods cheaper and more competitive overseas.

But none of this adds up to a sustainable upswing.

• “Absent robust job growth, it is not a true economic recovery,” said White House economic adviser Jared Bernstein.”

Food – Future Costs Up: “Food will never be so cheap again” says the title of Ambrose Evans-  Pritchard’s piece of 10/25/09 at the telegraph.co.uk/10-28-09 (via survivalblog.com on 10/28/09). Here’s some of the “why”:

• “Biofuel refineries in the US have set fresh records for grain use every month since may. Almost a third of the US corn harvest will be diverted into ethanol for motors this year, or 12pc of the global crop.
• The worlds grain stocks have dropped from four to 2.6 months cover since 2000, despite two bumper harvests in North America. China’s inventories are at a 30-year low. Asian rice stocks are near danger level.”
• “The world population is adding “another Britain” every year. This will continue until mid-century. By then we will have an extra 2.4bn mouths to feed.”
• “A report by Standard Chartered, “The End of Cheap Food” (quotation marks/PH), said North Africa and the Middle East have already hit the buffers. The region imports 71pc of its rice and 58pc of its corn, It lacks water to boost output. The population is growing fast. It will have to import, and cross fingers.”

Conversations With ‘Pop’ Smith: PH Question – ‘Pop’, any thoughts on preparations for specific events like catastrophic weather (hurricanes, etc.), terrorist attacks, or maybe oil embargo ?

‘Pop’ Smith: First, let me just say that your best preparation is a strong general level of preparedness. Being able to provide for you and yours, and maybe a few others, the basics in water, food, shelter, medical care and security for a time. It’s a base to build on, or adjust on, to specific circumstances.

Two or three things come mind here in addition: First, if you know ahead of time that a hurricane, flood or world class snow fall/winter is approaching then you have time to do things like add extra water or food or fuel for your vehicles or stoves/heaters or pet food, etc.

Second, if the world situation appears to be breaking bad then you might do all the things just mentioned and maybe add some extra cash to your stash for a longer period of difficulty and maybe get your doctor to write some extra Rx’s for any critically necessary medicines a family member might need. Third, preparedness is a process toward greater independence and sustainability during hard times. You have to keep the process in motion and direction in times where resources are readily available so that when the hard times do arrive, you’ll be as ready as you can be.

Figure you’ll never be perfectly prepared but you can/will be prepared enough to adjust, function and get through/on.

Until next time; keep your eyes on the horizon as the weathers changing fast.