Weather Report: J.O.E 2008

JOE 2008: Back on January 9, we here at PrudentHome presented some thoughts on our economy and current economic situation via some observations from a Harun I. letter posted on the Charles Hugh Smith blog, Of Two Minds (oftwominds.com) of 1/08/09. The letter noted that, “We are at peak everything; peak oil, peak food, …but not peak population”. It went on to observe, “The very mechanisms that have allowed homo sapiens to reach such high levels of population density are at or near exhaustion. There is no plan B.”

PrudentHome ended its post that day promising to begin a discussion of a “plan B” rationale this week along with the beginnings of some specifics. That was before we read JOE 2008 (in the civilian version).

JOE 2008, Joint Operating Environment 2008 report on worldwide security threats prepared by the U.S. Joint Forces Command in Norfolk, VA (accessed thru worldnetdaily.com via the article by Jerome Corsi on 1/15/09 entitled “U.S. warns drug war threatens Mexico ‘collapse’ “). JOE 2008 gives some additional substance and underpinnings to the Harun I. letter. Here are some of the points discussed in the report that we thought you might want to know:

DEMOGRAPHICS:

• The world will add 60 million people per year yielding a world population of 8 billion by the year 2030.
• 95% of this increase will be in developing countries.
• The performance of the global economy will be key in either dampening or inflaming ethnically or religiously based violent movements.
• The U.S. will add 50 million in population by 2025.

ENERGY: To meet even conservative population & economic growth rates, energy needs to grow 1.3% per year thereby increasing by 50% by 2030. This means in practical terms, adding a Saudi Arabia to world oil production every seven years.

By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach 10 million bbls/day.

PH Note: Remember that world food production is 90% fossil fueled based.

FOOD: Two major factors drive food requirements: 1. Growing global population and 2. Prosperity that expands dietary preferences (increased use of animal protein). These two requirements could produce a situation wherein there is adequate global food supply but localized food shortages.

WATER: Agriculture will likely remain the greatest source of water use demand. Within 25 years, water scarcity could effect three billion people.

The foregoing outline of some of the key portions of the JOE 2008 report should give all of us pause and should help provide the incentive to begin thinking about how our individual families will cope with these key changes. We definitely need a “plan B”.

Until next week then, keep your eyes on the horizon.