THE GOOD: Oil prices as we speak are below $120 per barrel. Gas prices in our area are about $3.75 per gallon with “ demand destruction “ promising some continued short-term relief at the pumps.
THE BAD : “ Just when you thought it might be safe to go back into the water “ … along comes several Money News ( NewsMax.com) articles from : 1. Mohammed El-Erian ( on Friday, 8/1/08 ) co-exec officer of PIMCO (w/nearly ¾ of a TRILLION $ IN ASSETS under management ) that U.S. unemployment in headed upwards toward 6% while the economy faces simultaneous pressures from the housing, consumer, and financial sectors. , 2. Former White House economist & NYU Prof Nouriel Roubini estimates the current financial problems will produce credit LOSSES between 1 & 2 TRILLION $ with the U.S. taxpayer bearing the cost. 3. Former White House economic adviser Martin Feldstein predicts that the U.S. dollar will continue to decline in value with the worlds economic system eventually failing to support the huge U.S. trade deficits ( nearly ¾ TRILLION $/year). , and finally, 4. Allen Sinai, chief economist for Decision Economics, predicting a worsening U. S. recession ( he says we’re already in one! ) based on continuing weak jobs growth and an economy dependent ( 70% ) on consumption by consumers.
THE SCARY : The Middle-East always seems to be in some sort of turmoil. This probably wouldn’t appear as ugly a condition as it is except for the fact that the Middle-East is OIL COUNTRY.
The current and most pressing concern at the moment is the possible flash point between Israel and Iran
The probabilities at this flash point seem to be : 1. The international community won’t be able to offer meaningful/effective sanctions to alter the direction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment efforts. 2. Israel views Iran’s nuclear enrichment program as an attempt to develop a nuclear weapon and this, coupled with Iran’s bellicose statements towards Israel , creates the Israeli conclusion that Iran poses an existential threat., and 3. There will in all likelihood be a military confrontation between Israel and Iran. The effects of this confrontation will be far reaching. At the very least oil prices and availability will be dramatically effected in a negative way for an uncertain period of time.
This coming Friday, August 8, we’ll be talking about some more preparation sources for the prudent home as well as the “ WEATHER”.
In the meantime , keep your eyes on the horizon.
Fascinating. I’ll reccommend my friends to visit you. Do you want to write more about it?