The weather seems an apt analogy for conditions that now exist and appear to threaten our world, our country, and our families.
Like the weather, economic, political, and environmental events are beyond our individual capabilities to control but like the weather too, we’re somewhat able to predict their coming and prepare. So what does the weather look like as it begins to move toward us just at the horizon ? Our economy thrives on cheap, available credit and fossil fuels (oil). Now, if credit is cheap it is certainly less than readily available while oil is not cheap and probably becoming less available.
Three major European banks and a major U. S. investment house are predicting a financial situation , in the U. S. and the world , during the coming months characterized by words like “crisis” and “catastrophic” . This while our own central bank, “ The Fed”, is described as an institution “ without credibility “.
World food stocks, primarily grains, are at a half-century-plus low with major countries preventing grain exports altogether or heavily discouraging those exports thru taxes. While world production is currently at a marginally adequate level, it is fragile. Any significant economic, climate, or geo-political interruption could spell famine on a large scale.(Note: Both China and Saudi Arabia are currently buying farmland in places like Africa and South America)
World oil production levels are nearly maximized though they are currently pretty stable. This stability however, exists in the face of an increasing world demand with it’s attendant price increases.
World fresh water stocks seem to be in about the same shape as food and oil : marginally adequate at current levels barring interruption.
Climate change (warmer, more variable and uncertain weather) brought about by, or significantly influenced by, human activities appears to be a generally accepted scientific position. This change could effect world food production in both the short and long term.
Geo-politically, the world seems to be stumbling along about as usual however, current potential conflicts in major oil producing areas of the middle-east and Africa cause special concerns regarding world oil production interruptions with their attendant price increases.
Now we come to the shy, retiring, 800 pound gorilla in the room…population . While critical world resources, though stretched thin , might be adequate in the short-term we’re adding a population to the world equal to that of the U. S. every 48 months!
What does all this mean to the family and the prudent home? In a word, PREPARATION. This is the same response the family and prudent home gives to any severe weather challenge.
More specific discussion about the “weather” and family responses to it will be found here next week on Tuesday, July 8.
Meanwhile, keep your eyes on the horizon.
Preparedness begins with the realization that food does not come directly from the grocery store wrapped in styrofoam and plastic, nor is oil magically produced at the local gas station. Understanding the nature of society in 2008 is a missing piece of the puzzle that must be filled in if we are to cope with the future. We live in a very complex system. The complexity of the system is what has given us the unimaginable wealth that many of us enjoy today. That same complexity create a vulnerability that cannot be ignored. It is good to see sites like this that help raise awareness of this.